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The Great Bitcoin Bull Market Of 2017 by Trace Mayer
By: Trace Mayer, host of The Bitcoin Knowledge Podcast. Originally posted here with images and Youtube videos. I just got back from a two week vacation without Internet as I was scouring some archeological ruins. I hardly thought about Bitcoin at all because there were so many other interesting things and it would be there when I got back. Jimmy Song suggested I do an article on the current state of Bitcoin. A great suggestion but he is really smart (he worked on Armory after all!) so I better be thorough and accurate! Therefore, this article will be pretty lengthy and meticulous. BACKGROUND As I completely expected, the 2X movement from the New York Agreement that was supposed to happen during the middle of my vacation flopped on its face because Jeff Garzik was driving the clown car with passengers willfully inside like Coinbase, Blockchain.info, Bitgo and Xapo and there were here massive bugS and in the code and miners like Bitmain did not want to allocate $150-350m to get it over the difficulty adjustments. I am very disappointed in their lack of integrity with putting their money where their mouths are; myself and many others wanted to sell a lot of B2X for BTC! On 7 December 2015, with Bitcoin trading at US$388.40, I wrote The Rise of the Fourth Great Bitcoin Bubble. On 4 December 2016, with Bitcoin trading at US$762.97, I did this interview:
As of 26 November 2017, Bitcoin is trading around US$9,250.00. That is an increase of about 2,400% since I wrote the article prognosticating this fourth great Bitcoin bull market. I sure like being right, like usual (19 Dec 2011, 1 Jul 2013), especially when there are financial and economic consequences. With such massive gains in such a short period of time the speculative question becomes: Buy, Hold or Sell? FUNDAMENTALS Bitcoin is the decentralized censorship-resistant Internet Protocol for transferring value over a communications channel. The Bitcoin network can use traditional Internet infrastructure. However, it is even more resilient because it has custom infrastructure including, thanks to Bitcoin Core developer Matt Corrallo, the FIBRE network and, thanks to Blockstream, satellites which reduce the cost of running a full-node anywhere in the world to essentially nothing in terms of money or privacy. Transactions can be cheaply broadcast via SMS messages. SECURITY The Bitcoin network has a difficulty of 1,347,001,430,559 which suggests about 9,642,211 TH/s of custom ASIC hardware deployed. At a retail price of approximately US$105/THs that implies about $650m of custom ASIC hardware deployed (35% discount applied). This custom hardware consumes approximately 30 TWh per year. That could power about 2.8m US households or the entire country of Morocco which has a population of 33.85m. This Bitcoin mining generates approximately 12.5 bitcoins every 10 minutes or approximately 1,800 per day worth approximately US$16,650,000. Bitcoin currently has a market capitalization greater than $150B which puts it solidly in the top-30 of M1 money stock countries and a 200 day moving average of about $65B which is increasing about $500m per day. Average daily volumes for Bitcoin is around US$5B. That means multi-million dollar positions can be moved into and out of very easily with minimal slippage. When my friend Andreas Antonopolous was unable to give his talk at a CRYPSA event I was invited to fill in and delivered this presentation, impromptu, on the Seven Network Effects of Bitcoin. These seven network effects of Bitcoin are (1) Speculation, (2) Merchants, (3) Consumers, (4) Security [miners], (5) Developers, (6) Financialization and (7) Settlement Currency are all taking root at the same time and in an incredibly intertwined way. With only the first network effect starting to take significant root; Bitcoin is no longer a little experiment of magic Internet money anymore. Bitcoin is monster growing at a tremendous rate!!
SPECULATION For the Bitcoin price to remain at $9,250 it requires approximately US$16,650,000 per day of capital inflow from new hodlers. Bitcoin is both a Giffen good and a Veblen good. A Giffen good is a product that people consume more of as the price rises and vice versa — seemingly in violation of basic laws of demand in microeconomics such as with substitute goods and the income effect. Veblen goods are types of luxury goods for which the quantity demanded increases as the price increases in an apparent contradiction of the law of demand. There are approximately 16.5m bitcoins of which ~4m are lost, ~4-6m are in deep cold storage, ~4m are in cold storage and ~2-4m are salable. (http://www.runtogold.com/images/lost-bitcoins-1.jpg) (http://www.runtogold.com/images/lost-bitcoins-2.jpg) And forks like BCash (BCH) should not be scary but instead be looked upon as an opportunity to take more territory on the Bitcoin blockchain by trading the forks for real bitcoins which dries up more salable supply by moving it, likely, into deep cold storage. According to Wikipedia, there are approximately 15.4m millionaires in the United States and about 12m HNWIs ($30m+ net worth) in the world. In other words, if every HNWI in the world wanted to own an entire bitcoin as a 'risk-free asset' that cannot be confiscated, seized or have the balance other wise altered then they could not. For wise portfolio management, these HNWIs should have at least about 2-5% in gold and 0.5-1% in bitcoin. Why? Perhaps some of the 60+ Saudis with 1,700 frozen bank accounts and about $800B of assets being targetted might be able to explain it to you. In other words, everyone loves to chase the rabbit and once they catch it then know that it will not get away. RETAIL There are approximately 150+ significant Bitcoin exchanges worldwide. Kraken, according to the CEO, was adding about 6,000 new funded accounts per day in July 2017. Supposedly, Coinbase is currently adding about 75,000 new accounts per day. Based on some trade secret analytics I have access to; I would estimate Coinbase is adding approximately 17,500 new accounts per day that purchase at least US$100 of Bitcoin. If we assume Coinbase accounts for 8% of new global Bitcoin users who purchase at least $100 of bitcoins (just pulled out of thin error and likely very conservative as the actual number is perhaps around 2%) then that is approximately $21,875,000 of new capital coming into Bitcoin every single day just from retail demand from 218,750 total new accounts. What I have found is that most new users start off buying US$100-500 and then after 3-4 months months they ramp up their capital allocation to $5,000+ if they have the funds available. After all, it takes some time and practical experience to learn how to safely secure one's private keys. To do so, I highly recommendBitcoin Core (network consensus and full validation of the blockchain), Armory (private key management), Glacier Protocol (operational procedures) and a Puri.sm laptop (secure non-specialized hardware). WALL STREET There has been no solution for large financial fiduciaries to invest in Bitcoin. This changed November 2017. LedgerX, whose CEO I interviewed 23 March 2013, began trading as a CFTC regulated Swap Execution Facility and Derivatives Clearing Organization. The CME Group announced they will begin trading in Q4 2017 Bitcoin futures. The CBOE announced they will begin trading Bitcoin futures soon. By analogy, these institutional products are like connecting a major metropolis's water system (US$90.4T and US$2 quadrillion) via a nanoscopic shunt to a tiny blueberry ($150B) that is infinitely expandable. This price discovery could be the most wild thing anyone has ever experienced in financial markets. THE GREAT CREDIT CONTRACTION The same week Bitcoin was released I published my book The Great Credit Contraction and asserted it had now begun and capital would burrow down the liquidity pyramid into safer and more liquid assets. (http://www.runtogold.com/images/Great-Credit-Contraction-Liquidity-Pyramid.jpg) Thus, the critical question becomes: Is Bitcoin a possible solution to the Great Credit Contraction by becoming the safest and most liquid asset? BITCOIN'S RISK PROFILE At all times and in all circumstances gold remains money but, of course, there is always exchange rate risk due to price ratios constantly fluctuating. If the metal is held with a third-party in allocated-allocated storage (safest possible) then there is performance risk (Morgan Stanley gold storage lawsuit). But, if properly held then, there should be no counter-party risk which requires the financial ability of a third-party to perform like with a bank account deposit. And, since gold exists at a single point in space and time therefore it is subject to confiscation or seizure risk. Bitcoin is a completely new asset type. As such, the storage container is nearly empty with only $150B. And every Bitcoin transaction effectively melts down every BTC and recasts it; thus ensuring with 100% accuracy the quantity and quality of the bitcoins. If the transaction is not on the blockchain then it did not happen. This is the strictest regulation possible; by math and cryptography! This new immutable asset, if properly secured, is subject only to exchange rate risk. There does exist the possibility that a software bug may exist that could shut down the network, like what has happened with Ethereum, but the probability is almost nil and getting lower everyday it does not happen. Thus, Bitcoin arguably has a lower risk profile than even gold and is the only blockchain to achieve security, scalability and liquidity. To remain decentralized, censorship-resistant and immutable requires scalability so as many users as possible can run full-nodes. (http://www.runtogold.com/images/ethereum-bitcoin-scability-nov-2017.png) TRANSACTIONS Some people, probably mostly those shilling alt-coins, think Bitcoin has a scalability problem that is so serious it requires a crude hard fork to solve. On the other side of the debate, the Internet protocol and blockchain geniuses assert the scalability issues can, like other Internet Protocols have done, be solved in different layers which are now possible because of Segregated Witness which was activated in August 2017. Whose code do you want to run: the JV benchwarmers or the championship Chicago Bulls? As transaction fees rise, certain use cases of the Bitcoin blockchain are priced out of the market. And as the fees fall then they are economical again. Additionally, as transaction fees rise, certain UTXOs are no longer economically usable thus destroying part of the money supply until fees decline and UTXOs become economical to move. There are approximately 275,000-350,000 transactions per day with transaction fees currently about $2m/day and the 200 DMA is around $1.08m/day. (http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-transaction-fees-nov-2017.png) What I like about transaction fees is that they somewhat reveal the financial health of the network. The security of the Bitcoin network results from the miners creating solutions to proof of work problems in the Bitcoin protocol and being rewarded from the (1) coinbase reward which is a form of inflation and (2) transaction fees which is a form of usage fee. The higher the transaction fees then the greater implied value the Bitcoin network provides because users are willing to pay more for it. I am highly skeptical of blockchains which have very low transaction fees. By Internet bubble analogy, Pets.com may have millions of page views but I am more interested in EBITDA. DEVELOPERS Bitcoin and blockchain programming is not an easy skill to acquire and master. Most developers who have the skill are also financially independent now and can work on whatever they want. The best of the best work through the Bitcoin Core process. After all, if you are a world class mountain climber then you do not hang out in the MacDonalds play pen but instead climb Mount Everest because that is where the challenge is. However, there are many talented developers who work in other areas besides the protocol. Wallet maintainers, exchange operators, payment processors, etc. all need competent developers to help build their businesses. Consequently, there is a huge shortage of competent developers. This is probably the largest single scalability constraint for the ecosystem. Nevertheless, the Bitcoin ecosystem is healthier than ever before. (http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-ecosystem.jpg)(/images/bitcoin-ecosystem-small.jpg) SETTLEMENT CURRENCY There are no significant global reserve settlement currency use cases for Bitcoin yet. Perhaps the closest is Blockstream's Strong Federations via Liquid. PRICE There is a tremendous amount of disagreement in the marketplace about the value proposition of Bitcoin. Price discovery for this asset will be intense and likely take many cycles of which this is the fourth. Since the supply is known the exchange rate of Bitcoins is composed of (1) transactional demand and (2) speculative demand. Interestingly, the price elasticity of demand for the transactional demand component is irrelevant to the price. This makes for very interesting dynamics! (http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-speculation.jpg) On 4 May 2017, Lightspeed Venture Partners partner Jeremy Liew who was among the early Facebook investors and the first Snapchat investor laid out their case for bitcoin exploding to $500,000 by 2030. On 2 November 2017, Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-02/blankfein-says-don-t-dismiss-bitcoin-while-still-pondering-value)said, "Now we have paper that is just backed by fiat...Maybe in the new world, something gets backed by consensus." On 12 Sep 2017, JP Morgan CEO called Bitcoin a 'fraud' but conceded that "(http://fortune.com/2017/09/12/jamie-dimon-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-fraud-buy/)Bitcoin could reach $100,000". Thus, it is no surprise that the Bitcoin chart looks like a ferret on meth when there are such widely varying opinions on its value proposition. I have been around this space for a long time. In my opinion, those who scoffed at the thought of $1 BTC, $10 BTC (Professor Bitcorn!), $100 BTC, $1,000 BTC are scoffing at $10,000 BTC and will scoff at $100,000 BTC, $1,000,000 BTC and even $10,000,000 BTC. Interestingly, the people who understand it the best seem to think its financial dominance is destiny. Meanwhile, those who understand it the least make emotionally charged, intellectually incoherent bearish arguments. A tremendous example of worldwide cognitive dissonance with regards to sound money, technology and the role or power of the State. Consequently, I like looking at the 200 day moving average to filter out the daily noise and see the long-term trend. (http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-price-200dma-nov-2017.png) Well, that chart of the long-term trend is pretty obvious and hard to dispute. Bitcoin is in a massive secular bull market. The 200 day moving average is around $4,001 and rising about $30 per day. So, what do some proforma situations look like where Bitcoin may be undervalued, average valued and overvalued? No, these are not prognostications. (http://www.runtogold.com/images/bitcoin-price-pro-forma.png) Maybe Jamie Dimon is not so off his rocker after all with a $100,000 price prediction. We are in a very unique period of human history where the collective globe is rethinking what money is and Bitcoin is in the ring battling for complete domination. Is or will it be fit for purpose? As I have said many times before, if Bitcoin is fit for this purpose then this is the largest wealth transfer in the history of the world. CONCLUSION Well, this has been a brief analysis of where I think Bitcoin is at the end of November 2017. The seven network effects are taking root extremely fast and exponentially reinforcing each other. The technological dominance of Bitcoin is unrivaled. The world is rethinking what money is. Even CEOs of the largest banks and partners of the largest VC funds are honing in on Bitcoin's beacon. While no one has a crystal ball; when I look in mine I see Bitcoin's future being very bright. Currently, almost everyone who has bought Bitcoin and hodled is sitting on unrealized gains as measured in fiat currency. That is, after all, what uncharted territory with daily all-time highs do! But perhaps there is a larger lesson to be learned here. Riches are getting increasingly slippery because no one has a reliable defined tool to measure them with. Times like these require incredible amounts of humility and intelligence guided by macro instincts. Perhaps everyone should start keeping books in three numéraires: USD, gold and Bitcoin. Both gold and Bitcoin have never been worth nothing. But USD is a fiat currency and there are thousands of those in the fiat currency graveyard. How low can the world reserve currency go? After all, what is the risk-free asset? And, whatever it is, in The Great Credit Contraction you want it! What do you think? Disagree with some of my arguments or assertions? Please, eviscerate them on Twitter or in the comments!
After 8 long years... adding a measly 1MB increase to the blocksize along with segwit is so unpalatable to Theymos, Bashco and his henchmen that they are organizing more media trolling campaigns out of the dragons den to do everything they can to encourage a forced soft fork rather than compromise
These trolling campaigns are getting so out of hand that the most important piece of news today which affects all crypto owners isn't even on the front page. How the US government is trying to make everyone declare all of their crypto assets whenever they cross a border...which will simply violate our rights and achieve NOTHING. And then.. there are the layer 2 solutions we were promised. 9 years later and nothing. There is no layer 2 solution in sight. RSK is the closest thing and a recent post quoted one of the developers involved as saying that it was still 5 months away from going live. This as we are in (or were) a major bull phase of growth that should have increased more users. But it is clear that if we increase users much past where we are now that the network will be handicapped. The data shows that transaction fees have risen so fast and so high that many wallets would become unspendable and the network largely unusable if it increases much further. That puts a cap on whatever height bitcoin can achieve and it gives other cryptos the chance to grow instead. Look up a chart showing the size of blocks and transaction backlogs relative to the dominance (market cap) of bitcoin to see that interesting bit of data. The funny thing is... if Gmax and others were simply conspiring to give us a layer 2 solution and purposefully handicapping the network.... I wouldn't even be that mad if they actually delivered on it. But they haven't. As the great Jeff Garzik said in a recent twitter post:
Lightning is not field-proven. It is irresponsible and risky to predicate Bitcoin growth on L2 solutions not yet deployed and field proven.
If you are so sure that "S2X has >90% hash power and will obliterate the S1X chain", there is a futures market, where you can "bet" on the outcome and make a lot of money, IF you are right.
"At the time of writing, BT1 tokens were trading at $3,250, while BT2 were priced at $1,104" Source: https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitfinex-lists-segwit2x-chain-split-tokens/ Since I started posting on this forum, I have been told time and again, that "S2X has >90% hash power and will obliterate the S1X chain". I totally disagree. Miners can signal all they want, but in the end, they will mine the chain, that WE give value to. In my view, the Core development team have done a wonderful job, by adding complicated code, SegWit, which simply works, without any BUGs. SegWit IS a scaling solution that works. It leads to lower fees, & faster confirmations, as The Segwit blocks which include the witness data can be over 1,000,000 bytes. SegWit Charts Transaction percentage hits 9%: http://segwit.party/charts/ Unconfirmed Transactions (MEM Pool) are really low, at around 10,000. All this year, before SegWit got activated, Unconfirmed Transactions, were sitting around 150,000. Source: https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions Shapeshift IS Now One of the Leading SegWit Adopters! Shapeshift is responsible for 2% to 3% of ALL Bitcoin transactions. This is why, I support the incumbent Bitcoin BTC, & will continue to do so after the hard fork. I personally do not believe that Segwit2x developer Jeff Garzik will be able to as good a job as the current Core development team. A simple error in the code, or a bug, could lead to BIG problems down the line. As an example of this, see how big a a negative impact the EDA bug is having on Bitcoin Cash. I have stopped advocating for Bitcoin Cash since I saw this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWG513bfNlE Are YOU sure that "S2X has >90% hash power and will obliterate the S1X chain"? Are you really, really sure?? Please note, IF you hold Bitcoin (BTC) you should get free coins when Bitcoin Gold Hard Forks on 25th October. Then you will also get SegWit2X coins, when this Hard Fork happens in mid November. Coinbase has said that "Customers with Bitcoin balances stored on Coinbase at the time of the fork, will have access to Bitcoin on both blockchains. On a side note: All of us who support current version of Bitcoin BTC, have to help find ways of keeping Core developers in control. Please note: This is an educational post. Betting on futures market is highly risky, & not recommended. This is not financial advice. I am an amateur investor. This post is based on my current knowledge, which is limited.
Bitcoin (BTC) was the top performing cryptocurrency during the third quarter of 2017. It is once again going towards all time highs. Bitcoin Market Dominance Goes OVER 50% FINALLY - Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/ I think that more people will move from Alt Coins to Bitcoin, now that we have a decent scaling solution, SegWit, & the market is no longer scared of Hard Forks. Businesses can also start creating solutions to take payments off main chain, thereby scaling Bitcoin further. I predict that Bitcoin price could quickly surpass the $5,000 mark if support towards SegWit2x declines further. This is a guess on my part! I also believe that Alt Coins may have a rebound post both forks, at the end of this year. What do you think? The markets (people who own Bitcoins) are confident now that the current Bitcoin BTC will survive after the hard fork. In the futures market, REAL MONEY seems to be betting on a win for the incumbent BTC Bitcoin (1X). Coinbase has now announced that they will support both chains. Source: https://blog.coinbase.com/update-on-the-bitcoin-segwit2x-hard-fork-69426f14bc85 SegWit has been the most important scaling solution for Bitcoin in many years, & is bullish for the price. It has already led to lower fees, & faster confirmations, for many Bitcoin BTC users. Segwit almost hit 10%: http://segwit.party/charts/ Just a couple of days ago, Shapeshift, which accounts for almost 3% of all Bitcoin transactions, announced that they will adopt SegWit, and confirmed that it does indeed enable scaling and lead to lower fees. Source: https://info.shapeshift.io/blog/2017/10/05/shapeshift-now-one-leading-segwit-adopters Unconfirmed Transactions (MEM Pool) are really low, at around 10,000. All this year, before SegWit got activated, Unconfirmed Transactions, were sitting around 150,000. Source: https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions Bitcoin holders are looking forward to getting their free "dividend" coins - Bitcoin Gold (GPU) & Bitcoin2X (B2X). This is bullish for the incumbent Bitcoin BTC, in my view. I also think that we will have many more Hard Forks of Bitcoin in 2018, leading to further dividends. I support the incumbent Bitcoin BTC, with the Core developers, & will continue to do so after the hard fork. I personally do not believe that Segwit2x developer Jeff Garzik will be able to do as good a job, as the current Core development team. A simple error in the code, or a bug, could lead to BIG problems down the line. As an example of this, see how big a a negative impact the EDA bug is having on Bitcoin Cash. I have stopped advocating for Bitcoin Cash since I saw this video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qWG513bfNlE This is not financial advice. Instead it is an educational post, & is based on my current knowledge, which is limited. I could be wrong. I will edit & update as further information comes to light. Please carry out your own research
General info and list of exchanges for Metronome (MET)
Why We Need to Ask Gavin Andresen for a 2-4-8 Proposal
Firstly, let’s not confuse this with a BIP let’s just say it’s a change in xt that needs to be implemented immediately, and ideally should be produced with Gavin’s Leadership. Many who have been supporting xt will be reluctant to listen to my reasoning, but please bear with me. I myself still prefer xt over the other versions but there is a reason it is flawed. We don’t have to think of this reason, necessarily, as a mistake in the code. Rather it is a practical reality (in the current forward prediction model form) The Chinese miners are never going to use it. So no matter how perfect xt code is in our imaginations it is not perfect in someone else’s and it is their imagination not ours that determines what code is discovering blocks. The Chinese miners do in fact support a 2-4-8 proposal. See this very informative link produced by jtoomim : https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Cg9Qo9Vl5PdJYD4EiHnIGMV3G48pWmcWI3NFoKKfIzU/edit#gid=0 As you can see the column titled 2-4-8 (Adam Back) is a combination of the best and most popular options. There are many fallacies used to support the forward prediction model. By this I mean predictions of up to 8GB 20 years out. Before I get into those, let me please advise you, that this model of forward predictions is failed. We will have market prediction models that run dynamically in Code. In fact Jeff Garzik and Gavin Andresen referred to it here: https://medium.com/@jgarzik/bitcoin-is-being-hot-wired-for-settlement-a5beb1df223a#.s0spzkr4j Where they say: “And finally, to remove long term moral hazard, core block size limit should be made dynamic, put in the realm of software, outside of human hands.” These “dynamic” market prediction models are the future. They will be in place within 10 years. There is no reason to hold up xt over failed prediction models of the past that will never be used. While trying to convince people I have come across many strange fallacies that are really rationalizations that stop them from considering that their view is totally wrong. Let me list those: 1) Small Block Fallacy: This occurs when we say the miners can make small blocks already. They don’t have to make big blocks if they don’t want to. Yes the miners can make small blocks. Yes, that does not matter because they still have to download the big ones. 2) Greedy Miners Fallacy: This occurs when we say the miners are just trying to jack up fees by using small blocks. No, they want bigger blocks. LOOK AT THE CHART. Their money is not maximized with tiny blocks that spike fees up for a short time until bitcoin is replaced. 3) Unreasonable Miners Fallacy: This occurs when we say they are being obstinate, don’t understand the code, and they will only run Core or something. No, they are not being unreasonable, they have real data problems there behind the Great Fire Wall. See this link: https://toom.im/blocktime They are being conservative and totally reasonable. I can’t say that in every case, but it is not fair to say that they are not searching for a solution or will only run Core. They have said they will make their own code if Core cannot scale bitcoin. 4) Wrong Guesses (about future block sizes) are okay Fallacy: “A wrong guess is no worse than no guess at all.” No they are not good they cost us everything and gain us nothing. 5) I am just going to sit here and not change my original proposal no matter what fallacy. If gavinandresen won’t someone else will. That said we in the community would really appreciate your leadership on this. (Admittedly, I am asking people now to support this and hope they would) Why this is so important. Core is marginalizing bitcoin by the day. We need to take the momentum away from them. The Core coders have a conflict of interest in their funding and this is causing them to make really bad decisions. We know all the reasons too well. Edit: no matter what I discover something that has to be changed after 3 minutes.
Dynamically Controlled Bitcoin Block Size Max Cap [BIP 1xx - Draft] | Upal Chakraborty | Aug 25 2015
Upal Chakraborty on Aug 25 2015: Github: https://github.com/UpalChakraborty/bips/blob/masteBIP-DynamicMaxBlockSize.mediawiki BIP: 1xx Title: Dynamically Controlled Bitcoin Block Size Max Cap Author: Upal Chakraborty <bitcoin at upalc.com> Status: Draft Type: Standards Track Created: 2015-08-24 ==Abstract== This BIP proposes replacing the fixed one megabyte maximum block size with a dynamically controlled maximum block size that may increase or decrease with difficulty change depending on various network factors. I have two proposals regarding this... i. Depending only on previous block size calculation. ii. Depending on previous block size calculation and previous Tx fee collected by miners. ==Motivation== With increased adoption, transaction volume on bitcoin network is bound to grow. If the one megabyte max cap is not changed to a flexible one which changes itself with changing network demand, then adoption will hamper and bitcoin's growth may choke up. Following graph shows the change in average block size since inception... https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-block-size?timespan=all&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address= ==Specification== ===Proposal 1 : Depending only on previous block size calculation=== If more than 50% of block's size, found in the first 2000 of the last difficulty period, is more than 90% MaxBlockSize
Else if more than 90% of block's size, found in the first 2000 of the last difficulty period, is less than 50% MaxBlockSize
Keep the same MaxBlockSize
===Proposal 2 : Depending on previous block size calculation and previous Tx fee collected by miners=== TotalBlockSizeInLastButOneDifficulty = Sum of all Block size of first 2008 blocks in last 2 difficulty period TotalBlockSizeInLastDifficulty = Sum of all Block size of second 2008 blocks in last 2 difficulty period (This actually includes 8 blocks from last but one difficulty) TotalTxFeeInLastButOneDifficulty = Sum of all Tx fees of first 2008 blocks in last 2 difficulty period TotalTxFeeInLastDifficulty = Sum of all Tx fees of second 2008 blocks in last 2 difficulty period (This actually includes 8 blocks from last but one difficulty) If ( ( (Sum of first 4016 block size in last 2 difficulty period)/4016 > 50% MaxBlockSize) AND (TotalTxFeeInLastDifficulty > TotalTxFeeInLastButOneDifficulty) AND (TotalBlockSizeInLastDifficulty
TotalBlockSizeInLastButOneDifficulty Else If ( ( (Sum of first 4016 block size in last 2 difficulty period)/4016 < 50% MaxBlockSize) AND (TotalTxFeeInLastDifficulty < TotalTxFeeInLastButOneDifficulty) AND (TotalBlockSizeInLastDifficulty < TotalBlockSizeInLastButOneDifficulty) )
188 pts: ajm__'s comment in Stop freaking out about the price and look at this damn picture. It's a log chart, which is necessary for viewing since bitcoin value has always grown exponentially over the longer term.
186 pts: thealmightydru's comment in I tried to order a deck of Cards Against Humanity using Bitcoins but was surprised by this negative response. What do you guys think?
185 pts: sfgayatheist's comment in If you get caught selling Bitcoin hardware on eBay, Paypal will "sever business relationships with you".. read:
Jeff’s Journey To Bitcoin Pioneer. Jeff Garzik is a futurist, entrepreneur and software engineer who is the co-founder and CEO of Bloq. He currently serves on the board of Coin Center, and the advisory board of BitFury, BitPay, Chain.com, Netki and WayPaver Labs. Jeff has a long history of early technology adoption. After helping to ... Bitcoin News Bitcoin Pioneer Jeff Garzik Dishes on Giving Away $100 Million in BTC – and Who He Thinks Satoshi Might Really Be. One of Bitcoin’s leading developers, Jeff Garzik, has given away ... In April, bitcoin developer Jeff Garzik revealed plans to launch a small, orbiting satellite acting as a blockchain node. The fittingly dubbed “BitSat” would act as a one-to-many connection, helping to protect the bitcoin network from a variety of possible peer-to-peer attacks and network outages. Bitcoin News 19 Sep 2012 Bitcoin Magazine - Ogrr Merges with MMOExchange, Quintuples Userbase 18 Sep 2012 Bitcoin version 0.7.0 released 18 Sep 2012 Erik Voorhees - Brazil and the Global Payments Forum 18 Sep 2012 Jeff Garzik - State Of The Coin 2012 (pdf) 15 Sep 2012 Pokerlistings - Could Bitcoin Set Online Poker Free? 12 Sep 2012 Video - Bitcoin News Feature (captions in English, click [CC]) Jeff Garzik warns that there is an. By CCN: Early Bitcoin developer Jeff Garzik revealed what he believes is the most daunting challenge the flagship cryptocurrency faces today.He also chimed in ...
Bitcoin News #54 - Lightning on Horizon, LedgerX Does $1m In First Week, Sweden Gov Accepts Bitcoin - Duration: 1:05:35. World Crypto Network 11,194 views 1:05:35 🔴 Robert Kiyosaki Live: Blockchain technology, Future of Crypto, Bitcoin BTC Halving 2020 Robert Kiyosaki 80,229 watching Live now Panel Discussion – Bitcoin in 2025 – A Glimpse Into The ... After helping to inaugurate CNN.com on the Internet in the early 1990s, Garzik worked at a succession of Internet startups and service providers for over two... Blockchain Cloud hosting made easy A suite of enterprise-grade, cloud-based blockchain infrastructure services. It provides real-time connectivity to public blockchain networks, enabling you to ... Coverage from the World's First Bitcoin Conference & World Expo! Jeff Garzik a Linux Kernel and Bitcoin developer speaks about the state of Bitcoin.