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The New Crypto Order & Escaping Financial Repression

The Vigilante’s View
It is our first issue in months that bitcoin hasn’t hit an all-time high! And it’s the last issue of the year. And what a year for cryptos it was.
To put it in perspective, bitcoin could fall 90% from current levels and it will still have outperformed stocks, bonds and real estate in 2017.
Bitcoin started 2017 at $960.79.
At the time of this writing it is near $13,000 for a gain of 1,250% in 2017.
And, bitcoin was actually one of the worst performing cryptocurrencies in our TDV portfolio in 2017!
Ethereum (ETH) started 2017 at $8. It has since hit over $800 for a nice 10,000% gain in 2017.
That’s pretty good, but not as good as Dash which started the year at $11.19 and recently hit $1,600 for a nearly 15,000% gain.
I hope many of you have participated in these amazing gains! If not, or you are new, don’t worry there will be plenty more opportunities in the years ahead.
It won’t all be just home runs though… in fact, some of the cryptos that have performed so well to date may go down dramatically or collapse completely in the coming years.
I’ll point out further below why Lightning Network is not the answer to Bitcoin Core’s slow speeds and high costs. And, I’ll look ahead to 2018 and how we could already be looking beyond blockchains.
Yes, things are moving so fast that blockchain just became known to your average person this year… and could be nearly extinct by next year.
That’s why it is important to stick with us here at TDV to navigate these choppy free market waters!
New Years Reflection On The Evolution Of Consensus Protocols
Sooner or later crypto will humble you by its greatness. Its vastness is accompanied by a madness that is breathtaking, because you quickly realize that there is no stopping crypto from taking over the world. The moment you think you have everything figured out, is the moment the market will surprise you.
We are for the first time living and witnessing the birth of the first worldwide free market. Throughout this rampage of innovation, we all are implicitly aiming for the best means of harnessing consensus. As we leave this bountiful 2017 and aim at 2018, it is important for us to meditate and appreciate the progress we have made in transforming the world through the decentralization of consensus. It is also important to reflect on the changes in consensus building we have partaken in and those yet to come.
Consensus is the agreement that states “this is what has occurred, and this is what hasn’t happened.”
Throughout the vastness of history, we humans have only really had access to centralized means for consensus building. In the centralized world, consensus has been determined by banks, states, and all kinds of central planners. As our readers know, any centralized party can misuse their power, and their consensus ruling can become unfair. In spite of this, many individuals still praise the effectiveness of consensus building of centralized systems.
People from antiquity have had no other option but to trust these central planners. These systems of control have created still-water markets where only a few are allowed to compete. This lack of competition resulted in what we now can objectively view as slow innovation. For many, centralized consensus building is preferred under the pretense of security and comfort. Unfortunately, these same individuals are in for a whole lot of discomfort now that the world is innovating on top of the first decentralized consensus building technology, the blockchain.
Everything that has occurred since the inception of bitcoin has shocked central planners because for the first time in history they are lost; they no longer hold power. We now vote with our money. We choose what we find best as different technologies compete for our money.
What we are witnessing when we see the volatility in crypto is nothing more than natural human motion through price. The innovation and volatility of the crypto market may seem unorthodox to some, because it is. For the first time in history we are in a true free market. The true free market connects you to everybody and for this reason alone the market shouldn’t surprise us for feeling “crazy.” Volatility is a sign of your connection to a market that is alive. Radical innovation is a sign of a market that is in its infancy still discovering itself.
In juxtaposing centralized consensus building with decentralized consensus building, I cannot keep myself from remembering some wise biblical words; “ And no one pours new wine into old wineskins. Otherwise, the new wine will burst the skins; the wine will run out and the wineskins will be ruined.” – Luke 5:37
The centralized legacy financial system is akin to old wineskins bursting to shreds by the new wine of crypto. Decentralized consensus building has no need for central planners. For example, think about how ludicrous it would be for someone to ask government for regulation after not liking something about crypto. Sorry, there is no central planner to protect you; even the mathematical protocols built for us to trust are now competing against one another for our money.
These new mathematical protocols will keep competing against one another as they provide us with new options in decentralizing consensus. As we look unto 2018, it is important that we as investors begin to critically engage and analyze “blockchain-free cryptocurrencies.”
HASHGRAPHS, TANGLES AND DAGS
Blockchain-free cryptocurrencies are technologies composed of distributed databases that use different tools to achieve the same objectives as blockchains.
The top contenders in the realm of blockchain-free cryptos are DAGs (Directed Acyclic Graphs) such as Swirlds’ Hashgraph, ByteBall’s DAG, and IOTA’s Tangle. These blockchain-free cryptos are also categorized as belonging to the 3 rd generation of cryptocurrencies. These technologies promise to be faster, cheaper, and more efficient than blockchain cryptocurrencies.
Blockchains were the first means of creating decentralized consensus throughout the world. In the blockchain, the majority of 51% determine the consensus. The limits of blockchains stem from their inherent nature, whereupon every single node/participant needs to know all of the information that has occurred throughout the whole blockchain economy of a given coin.
This opens up blockchains to issues akin to the ones we have been exposed to in regards to Bitcoin’s scaling. It is important to make a clear distinction in the language used between blockchains and blockchain-freecryptocurrencies. When we speak about blockchains it is more proper to speak about its transactionconsensus as “decentralized”, whereas with blockchain-free cryptocurrencies it is best if we refer to transaction consensus as “distributed.”
Swirlds’ Hashgraph incorporates a radical and different approach to distributing consensus. Swirlds claims that their new approach will solve scaling and security issues found on blockchains. They use a protocol called “Gossip about Gossip.” Gossip refers to how computers communicate with one another in sending information.
In comparison to the Blockchain, imagine that instead of all of the nodes receiving all of the transactions categorized in the past ten minutes, that only a few nodes shared their transaction history with other nodes near them. The Hashgraph team explains this as “calling any random node and telling that node everything you know that it does not know.” That is, in Hashgraph we would be gossiping about the information we are gossiping; i.e., sending to others throughout the network for consensus.
Using this gossiped information builds the Hashgraph. Consensus is created by means of depending on the gossips/rumors that come to you and you pass along to other nodes. Hashgraph also has periodic rounds which review the circulating gossips/rumors.
Hashgraph is capable of 250,000+ Transactions Per Second (TPS), compared to Bitcoin currently only allowing for 7 TPS. It is also 50,000 times faster than Bitcoin. There is no mention of a coin on their white paper. At this moment there is no Hashgraph ICO, beware of scams claiming that there is. There is however a growing interest in the project along with a surge of app development.
IOTAs DAG is known as the Tangle. Contrary to Hashgraph, IOTA does have its own coin known as MIOTA, currently trading around the $3 mark. There are only 2,779,530,283 MIOTA in existence. The Tangle was also created to help alleviate the pains experienced with Blockchain scaling. IOTAs Tangle creates consensus on a regional level; basically neighbors looking at what other neighbors are doing.
As the tangle of neighbors grows with more participants the security of the system increases, along with the speed of confirmation times. IOTA has currently been criticized for its still lengthy confirmation times and its current levels of centralization via their Coordinators. This centralization is due to the fact that at this moment in time the main team works as watchtower to oversee how Tangle network grows so that it does not suffer from attacks.
Consensus is reached within IOTA by means of having each node confirm two transactions before that same node is able to send a given transaction. This leads to the mantra of “the more people use IOTA, the more transactions get referenced and confirmed.” This creates an environment where transactional scaling has no limits. IOTA has no transaction fees and upon reaching high adoption the transactions ought to be very fast.
Another promising aspect about IOTA is that it has an integrated quantum-resistant algorithm, the Winternitz One-Time Signature Scheme, that would protect IOTA against an attack of future quantum computers. This without a doubt provides IOTA with much better protection against an adversary with a quantum computer when compared to Bitcoin.
ByteBall is IOTA’s most direct competitor. They both possess the same transaction speed of 100+ TPS, they both have their own respective cryptocurrencies, and they both have transparent transactions. ByteBall’s token is the ByteBall Bytes (GBYTE), with a supply of 1,000,000; currently trading at around $700. ByteBall aims to service the market with tamper proof storage for all types of data. ByteBall’s DAG also provides an escrow like system called “conditional payments;” which allows for conditional clauses before settling transactions.
Like IOTA, ByteBall is also designed to scale its transaction size to meet the needs of a global demand. ByteBall provides access to integrated bots for transactions which includes the capacity for prediction markets, P2P betting, P2P payments in chat, and P2P insurance. ByteBall’s initial coin distribution is still being awarded to BTC and Bytes holders according to the proportional amounts of BTC or Bytes that are held per wallet. IOTA, ByteBall and Hashgraph are technologies that provide us with more than enough reasons to be hopeful for 2018. In terms of the crypto market, you don’t learn it once. You have to relearn it every day because its development is so infant. If you are new to crypto and feel lost at all know that you are not alone. These technologies are constantly evolving with new competitive options in the market.
As the technologies grow the ease for adoption is set to grow alongside innovation. We are all new to this world and we are all as much in shock of its ingenuity as the next newbie. Crypto is mesmerizing not just for its volatility which is a clear indication of how connected we are now to one another, but also because of the social revolution that it represents. We are experiencing the multidirectional growth of humanity via the free market.
Meanwhile Bitcoin Is Turning Into Shitcoin
It is with a great degree of sadness that I see bitcoin is on the cusp of destroying itself. Bitcoin Core, anyway. Bitcoin Cash may be the winner from all of this once all is said and done.
Whether by design or by accident, bitcoin has become slow and expensive.
Many people point out that IF the market were to upgrade to Segwit that all would be fine. I’ll explain further below why many market participants have no incentive to upgrade to Segwit… meaning that the implementation of Segwit has been a massively risky guess that so far has not worked.
Others say that the Lightning Network (LN) will save bitcoin. I’ll point out below why that will not happen.
Lightning Networks And The Future Of Bitcoin Core
If you’ve been following bitcoin for any length of time, you’re probably aware of the significant dispute over how to scale the network. The basic problem is that although bitcoin could be used at one time to buy, say, a cup of coffee, the number of transactions being recorded on the network bid up the price per transaction so much that actually sending BTC cost more than the cup of coffee itself. Indeed, analysis showed that there were many Bitcoin addresses that had such small BTC holdings that the address itself couldn’t be used to transfer it to a different address. These are referred to as “unspendable addresses.”
In the ensuing debate, the “big blockers” wanted to increase the size of each block in the chain in order to allow for greater transaction capacity. The “small blockers” wanted to reduce the size of each transaction using a technique called Segregated Witness (SegWit) and keep the blocks in the chain limited to 1MB.
SegWit reduces the amount of data in each transaction by around 40-50%, resulting in an increased capacity from 7 transactions per second to perhaps 15.
The software engineers who currently control the Bitcoin Core code repository have stated that what Bitcoin needs is “off-chain transactions.” To do this, they have created something called Lightning Networks (LN), based on an software invention called the “two-way peg.” Put simply, the two-way peg involves creating an escrow address in Bitcoin where each party puts some bitcoin into the account, and then outside the blockchain, they exchange hypothetical Bitcoin transactions that either of them can publish on Bitcoin’s blockchain in order to pull their current agreed-upon balance out of the escrow address.
Most layman explanations of how this works describe the protocol as each party putting in an equal amount of Bitcoin into the escrow. If you and I want to start transacting off-chain, so we can have a fast, cheap payment system, we each put some Bitcoin in a multi-party address. I put in 1 BTC and you put in 1 BTC, and then we can exchange what are essentially cryptographic contracts that either of us can reveal on the bitcoin blockchain in order to exit our agreement and get our bitcoin funds.
Fortunately, it turns out that the video’s examples don’t tell the whole story. It’s possible for the escrow account to be asymmetric. See:. That is, one party can put in 1 BTC, while the other party puts in, say, 0.0001 BTC. (Core developer and forthcoming Anarchapulco speaker Jimmy Song tells us that there are game theoretic reasons why you don’t want the counterparty to have ZERO stake.)
Great! It makes sense for Starbucks to participate with their customers in Lightning Networks because when their customers open an LN channel (basically a gift card) with them for $100, they only have to put in $1 worth of Bitcoin. Each time the customer transacts on the Lightning Network, Starbucks gets an updated hypothetical transaction that they can use to cash out that gift card and collect their bitcoin.
The elephant in the room is: transaction fees. In order to establish the escrow address and thereby open the LN channel, each party has to send some amount of bitcoin to the address. And in order to cash out and get the bitcoin settlement, one party also has to initiate a transaction on the bitcoin blockchain. And to even add funds to the channel, one party has to pay a transaction fee.
Right now fees on the bitcoin blockchain vary widely and are extremely volatile. For a 1-hour confirmation transaction, the recommended fee from one wallet might be $12 US, while on another it’s $21 US. For a priority transaction of 10-20 minutes, it can range from $22-30 US. Transactions fees are based on the number of bytes in the transaction, so if both parties support SegWit (remember that?) then the fee comes down by 40-50%. So it’s between $6 and $10 US for a one hour transaction and between $11-15 for a 15 minute transaction. (SegWit transactions are prioritized by the network to some degree, so actual times may be faster)
But no matter what, both the customer and the merchant have to spend $6 each to establish that they will have a relationship and either of them has to spend $6 in order to settle out and get their bitcoin. Further, if the customer wants to “top off” their virtual gift card, that transaction costs another $6. And because it adds an address to the merchant’s eventual settlement, their cost to get their Bitcoin goes up every time that happens, so now it might cost them $9 to get their bitcoin.
Since these LN channels are essentially digital gift cards, I looked up what the cost is to retailers to sell acustomer a gift card. The merchant processor Square offers such gift cards on their retailer site. Their best price is $0.90 per card.
So the best case is that Lightning Networks are 600% more expensive than physical gift cards to distribute, since the merchant has to put a transaction into the escrow address. Further, the customer is effectively buying the gift card for an additional $6, instead of just putting up the dollar amount that goes on the card.
But it gets worse. If you get a gift card from Square, they process the payments on the card and periodically deposit cash into your bank account for a percentage fee. If you use the Lightning Network, you can only access your Bitcoin by cancelling the agreement with the customer. In other words, you have to invalidate their current gift card and force them to spend $6 on a new one! And it costs you $6 to collect your funds and another $6 to sell the new gift card!
I’m sure many of you have worked in retail. And you can understand how this would be financially infeasible. The cost of acquiring a new customer, and the amount of value that customer would have to stake just to do business with that one merchant, would be enormous to make any financial sense.
From time immemorial, when transaction costs rise, we see the creation of middlemen.
Merchants who can’t afford to establish direct channels with their customers will have to turn to middlemen, who will open LN channels for them. Instead of directly backing and cashing out their digital gift cards, they will establish relationships with entities that consolidate transactions, much like Square or Visa would do today.
Starbucks corporate or individual locations might spend a few USD on opening a payment channel with the middleman, and then once a month spend 6 USD to cash out their revenues in order to cover accounts payable.
In the meantime, the middleman also has to offer the ability to open LN channels for consumers. This still happens at a fixed initial cost, much like the annual fee for a credit card in the US. They would continue to require minimum balances, and would offer access to a network of merchants, exactly like Visa and MasterCard today.
This process requires a tremendous amount of capital because although the middleman does not have to stake Bitcoin in the consumer’s escrow account, he does have to stake it in the merchant’s account. In other words, if the Lightning Network middleman wants to do business with Starbucks to the tune of $100,000/month, he needs $100,000 of bitcoin to lock into an escrow address. And that has to happen for every merchant.
Because every month (or so) the merchants have to cash out of their bitcoin to fiat in order to pay for their cost of goods and make payroll. Even if their vendors and employees are paid in bitcoin and they have LN channels open with them, someone somewhere will want to convert to fiat, and trigger a closing channel creating a cascading settlement effect that eventually arrives at the middleman. Oh, and it triggers lots of bitcoin transactions that cost lots of fees.
Did I mention that each step in the channel is expecting a percentage of the value of the channel when it’s settled? This will come up again later.
Again, if you’ve worked in the retail business, you should be able to see how infeasible this would be. You have to buy inventory and you have to sell it to customers and every part that makes the transaction more expensive is eating away at your margins.
Further, if you’re the middleman and Starbucks closes out a channel with a $100,000 stake where they take $95,000 of the bitcoin, how do you re-open the channel? You need another $95,000 in capital. You have revenue, of course, from the consumer side of your business. Maybe you have 950 consumers that just finished off their $100 digital gift cards. So now you can cash them out to bitcoin for just $5700 in transaction fees, and lose 5.7% on the deal.
In order to make money in that kind of scenario, you have to charge LN transaction fees. And because your loss is 5.7%, you need to charge in the range of 9% to settle Lightning Network transactions. Also, you just closed out 950 customers who now have to spend $5700 to become your customer again while you have to spend $5700 to re-acquire them as customers. So maybe you need to charge more like 12%.
If you approached Starbucks and said “you can accept Bitcoin for your customers and we just need 12% of the transaction,” what are the odds that they would say yes? Even Visa only has the balls to suggest 3%, and they have thousands and thousands of times as many consumers as bitcoin.
The entire mission of bitcoin was to be faster, cheaper and better than banks, while eliminating centralized control of the currency. If the currency part of Bitcoin is driven by “off-chain transactions” while bitcoin itself remains expensive and slow, then these off-chain transactions will become the territory of centralized parties who have access to enormous amounts of capital and can charge customers exorbitant rates. We know them today as banks.
Even for banks, we have to consider what it means to tie up $100,000/month for a merchant account. That only makes sense if the exchange rate of bitcoin grows faster than the cost of retaining Bitcoin inventory. It costs nothing to store Bitcoin, but it costs a lot to acquire it. At the very least the $6 per transaction to buy it, plus the shift in its value against fiat that’s based on interest rates. As a result, it only makes sense to become a Lightning Network middleman if your store of value (bitcoin) appreciates at greater than the cost of acquiring it (interest rate of fiat.) And while interest rates are very low, that’s not a high bar to set. But to beat it, Bitcoin’s exchange rate to fiat has to outpace the best rate available to the middleman by a factor exceeding the opportunity cost of other uses of that capital.
Whatever that rate is, for bitcoin, the only reason the exchange rate changes is new entry of capital into the “price” of bitcoin. For that to work, bitcoin’s “price” must continue to rise faster than the cost of capital for holding it. So far this has happened, but it’s a market gamble for it to continue.
Since it happens because of new capital entering into the bitcoin network and thus increasing the market cap, this results in Bitcoin Core becoming the very thing that its detractors accuse it of: a Ponzi scheme. The cost of transacting in Bitcoin becomes derived from the cost of holding bitcoin and becomes derived from the cost of entering bitcoin.
Every middleman has to place a bet on the direction of bitcoin in a given period. And in theory, if they think the trend is against Bitcoin, then they’ll cash out and shut down all the payment channels that they transact. If they bought bitcoin at $15,000, and they see it dropping to $13,000 — they’ll probably cash out their merchant channels and limit their risk of a further drop. The consumer side doesn’t matter so much because their exposure is only 1%, but the merchant side is where they had to stake everything.
If you’re wondering why this information is not widely known, it’s because most bitcoin proponents don’t transact in bitcoin on a regular basis. They may be HODLing, but they aren’t doing business in bitcoin.
Through Anarchapulco, TDV does frequent and substantial business in bitcoin, and we’ve paid fees over $150 in order to consolidate ticket sale transactions into single addresses that can be redeemed for fiat to purchase stage equipment for the conference.
For Bitcoin to be successful at a merchant level via Lightning Networks, we will have to see blockchain transactions become dramatically cheaper. If they return to the sub-$1 range, we might have a chance with centralized middlemen, but only with a massive stabilization of volatility. If they return to $0.10, we might have a chance with direct channels.
Otherwise, Lightning Networks can’t save bitcoin as a means of everyday transaction. And since that takes away its utility, it might very well take away the basis of its value and bitcoin could find itself truly being a tulip bubble.
One final note: there are a some parties for whom all these transactions are dramatically cheaper. That is the cryptocurrency exchanges. Because they are the entry and exit points for bitcoin-to-fiat, they can eliminate a layer of transaction costs and thus offer much more competitive rates — as long as you keep your bitcoin in their vaults instead of securing it yourselves.
Sending it out of their control lessens their competitive advantage against other means of storage. It comes as no surprise, then, that they are the least advanced in implementing the SegWit technology that would improve transaction costs and speed. If you buy bitcoin on Poloniex, it works better for them if it’s expensive for you to move that coin to your Trezor.
In fact, an exchange offering Lightning Network channels to merchants could potentially do the following…
1) Stake bitcoins in channels with merchants. These coins may or may not be funds that are held by their customers. There is no way to know.
2) Offer customers “debit card” accounts for those merchants that are backed by the Lightning network
3) Establish middle addresses for the customer accounts and the merchant addresses on the Lightning Network.
4) Choose to ignore double-spends between the customer accounts and the merchant addresses, because they don’t actually have to stake the customer side. They can just pretend to since they control the customer’s keys.
5) Inflate their bitcoin holdings up to the stake from the merchants, since the customers will almost never cash out in practice.
In other words, Lightning Networks allow exchanges a clear path to repeating Mtgox; lie to the consumer about their balance while keeping things clean with the merchant. In other words, establish a fractional reserve approach to bitcoin.
So, to summarize, Bitcoin Core decided increasing the blocksize from 1mb to 2-8mb was “too risky” and decided to create Segwit instead which the market has not adopted. When asked when bitcoin will be faster and less expensive to transfer most Bitcoin Core adherents say the Lightning Network will fix the problems.
But, as I’ve just shown, the LN makes no sense for merchants to use and will likely result in banks taking over LN nodes and making BTC similar to Visa and Mastercard but more expensive. And, will likely result in exchanges becoming like banks of today and having fractional reserve systems which makes bitcoin not much better than the banking system of today.
Or, people can switch to Bitcoin Cash, which just increased the blocksize and has much faster transaction times at a fraction of the cost.
I’ve begun to sell some of my bitcoin holdings because of what is going on. I’ve increased my Bitcoin Cash holdings and also increased my holdings of Dash, Monero, Litecoin and our latest recommendation, Zcash.
Other News & Crypto Tidbits
When bitcoin surpassed $17,600 in December it surpassed the total value of the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR) currency.
Meanwhile, Alexei Kireyev of the IMF put out his working paper, “ The Macroeconomics of De-Cashing ,” where he advises abolishing cash without having the public aware of the process.
Countries such as Russia are considering creating a cryptocurrency backed by oil to get around the US dollar and the US dollar banking system. Venezuela is as well although we highly doubt it will be structured properly or function well given the communist government’s track record of destroying two fiat currencies in the last decade.
To say that the US dollar is being attacked on every level is not an understatement. Cryptocurrencies threaten the entire monetary and financial system while oil producing countries look to move away from the US dollar to their own oil backed cryptocurrency.
And all this as bitcoin surpassed the value of the IMF’s SDR in December and in 2017 the US dollar had its largest drop versus other currencies since 2003.
And cryptocurrency exchanges have begun to surpass even the NASDAQ and NYSE in terms of revenue. Bittrex, as one example, had $3 billion in volume on just one day in December. At a 0.5% fee per trade that equaled $15m in revenue in just one day. If that were to continue for 365 days it would mean $5.4 billion in annual revenue which is more than the NASDAQ or NYSE made this year.
Conclusion
I never would have guessed how high the cryptocurrencies went this year. My price target for bitcoin in 2017 was $3,500! That was made in late 2016 when bitcoin was near $700 and many people said I was crazy.
Things are speeding up much faster than even I could have imagined. And it is much more than just making money. These technologies, like cryptocurrencies, blockchains and beyond connect us in a more profound way than Facebook would ever be able to. We are now beginning to be connected in ways we never even thought of; and to some degree still do not understand. These connections within this completely free market are deep and meaningful.
This is sincerely beautiful because we are constantly presented with an ever growing buffet of competing protocols selling us their best efforts in providing harmony within the world. What all of these decentralized and distributed consensus building technologies have in common is that they connect us to the world and to each other. Where we are going we don’t need foolish and trite Facebook’s emojis.
As we close a successful 2017 we look with optimism towards a much more prosperous 2018. The Powers That Shouldn’t Be (TPTSB) can’t stop us. As we move forward note how much crypto will teach you about ourselves and the world. In a radical free market making our own bets will continue to be a process of self discovery. Crypto will show us the contours of our fears, the contours of our greed, and will constantly challenge us to do our best with the knowledge we have.
Remember, randomness and innovation are proper to the happenstance nature of a true digital free market.
Happy New Year fellow freedom lovers!
And, as always, thank you for subscribing!
Jeff Berwick
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My view for the worst, better, best case scenario

Even with current straight bankruptcy (hasan) trustee can address the court based on finance analysis and cuncil for new evaluations of intangible assets(btc) due to price violity and significant asset value increase after inital btc value evaluation, what if approved, with current straight bankrupty btc+forks must be sold to pay all creditors with updated and new evaluated claims. On another hand, only if CR and plan is approved, these btc and forks can be distributed unexchanged (unliquidated) to the creditors.
All asset whatever tangible or not is liquidated only to the certain point to get liquid asset (funds) to pay all creditors. When that is done, bankruptcy is completed and court/trustee authority stops. Any remaining asset remain as asset what company can use to resume busines or whatever they choose. Ordinary, in bankruptcy liquidation, all asset in full had to be liquidated, because creditors claims are much higher then company assets worth. Its liqidated in full only if asset can't be sold partialy and there is no other assets to be liquidated. However, in MtGox bankruptcy things has changed, untangible asset are now worth much more then total of approved creditors claims and if claims stays with current evaluation, asset will be liquidated only to the funds worth what equal all total approved creditor claims, nothing more! Update: under bankruptcy (hasan) corporation has to be dissolved what after distribution of all creditors has been made and Court bankruptcy termination order , dissolution esentualy cause all remaining asset liquidation and surplus sent to the shareholders - Tibanne and then Mark Karpeles.
Worst case scenario: The Court settle all creditors claim with current evaluated btc (483$) +fiat+interst coverted and paid as JPY where only enough intangible assets (btc) are liquidated (sold) to settle all creditors (what are almost already done), what makes bunkruptcy completed and reamining 165k btc and forks remain as Mtgox intangible asset where they can do whatever they want, liquidate and pay dividends, trade with btc, invest in other projects etc (bankruptcy is over, no obligation or liabilities to MtGox creditors). (Unfortunetly, in my opinion, this will most likely be the case. Read edit at the end of the OP).
Update: under bankruptcy (hasan) corporation has to be dissolved what after distribution of all creditors has been made and Court bankruptcy termination order , dissolution esentualy cause all remaining asset liquidation and surplus sent to the shareholders - Tibanne and then Mark Karpeles.
Better scenario: If some miracle (never) happens the Court accept new btc evaluation, but then these to be paid as JPY, all (or better to say) suficient remaining btc need to be sold(liquidate) to settle new evaluated creditor claims and question is how much liquid asset (funds) creditors would receive due crushing the btc price. Eventual btc+forks surplus(°) what would be quite lower then in worst case scenario, would remain as intangible MtGox asset where corporation can do whatever they want - bankruptcy is completed. (°(eventual btc+forks surplus would depend on new btc price evaluation for creditor claims and difference in new total claimed sum vs. funds JPY what trustee get from actual btc liquidation). Update: corporate dissolution aplies here too, just much less funds to be sent to the shareholders.
Best scenario: (Low probability, read edit at end of the OP) Civil rehabilitation under supervision with approved plan where creditors can claim all remaining btc+ forks unexchanged (not liquidated) + what is already been liquidated.
In this case, if plan is approved we would get 100% our current claim. We need to divide total claimed JPY sum with 50.058JPY (btc 483$) to get how much that is as btc base and on that result add aprox 17% of btc/bcc distributed as btc/bcc. Percentage (17%) might be lower, depend on ther lawsuit and non mtgox users creditor claims. Example of the best case scenario: Current approved claim. Rates to JPY (2014) BTC= 50,058.12 JPY; US$ = 1USD=103.64 JPY Currency US$ balance = 1,200$= approved sum JPY=124,368. Bitcoin balance = 14btc = approved JPY = 700,813.68 124,368+700,813.68 =825,181.68 JPY total of approved creditor claim/ that is sum what creditor receive 100% sum (liquid funds almost available, to be distributed as JPY). 825,181.68/50,058.12=> 16.48 BTC base: 16.48x17%=> 2.80 BTC and 2.80 BCC to return as cryptocurrency. Sumarise: Creditor receive 825,181.68 JPY and 2.80 btc and 2.80 bcc. That would be max return. Same calculation is aplied if creditor had only btc balances, only any currency (fiat) or both currency(fiat) and btc. Both fiat or currency mean: USD, EUR, GBP, JPY etc.
Iam not sure what that actual CR and plan are in the "best case scenario" as I have no details. We actually need sort of "better case scenario" just without required to liquidate remaining btc+forks and to be distributed as intangible asset (btc+forks). Beside, its Trustee duty to look best interest of all creditors, but for bankrupt company as well, what might cause conflict. Its defenetelly hard and complex situation, for all parties.
Questionable is whatever liquidated intangible asset (btc) under bankruptcy (straight or CR) are subjected to the capital gain (not dividend) and approprate income tax what would cause lower(dilution) funds distribution. However, in that case question is how would be regarded our creditor claims i.e. deductable as intangible asset value entry? Capital gain/profit- loss - deductable - expense=> corporate gross income - tax=> net income. So actually, from what I know from accounting practise, paid funds for evaluated claims would be asset (btc) "in value" while liquidated asset "out value" so actual capital gain net from btc are: difference in paid claims minus actal liquidation value! Beside, that "net capital gain" are not actually "net gain" as there are minus from other deductable sums and only when they are substracted make net income before corporate income tax! It maight be discharged, but I doubt it. Only liquidated untangible asset (btc) are regarded as corporation capital gain/profit, its not corporation dividends. Its conflicted situation because MtGox did not bought these btc, nor mined them, nor gifted, nor received as Mtgox investment and they were never corporation assets. Control of btc as intangible assets does not always equal propietorship (if there are contract or mutual agreement), but it will be (are) if not chalanged and Iam not sure on what grounds are we creditors then (unless corporation addmited debt/liability, but then again on what terms and conditions or user agreement these btc have been received?). Regardless, Trustee must have profesional finance advisoaccountant.
Some examples of intangible assets: patents, trademarks, franchises, goodwill, copyrights, Internet domain names, performance events, licensing agreements, service contracts, computer software, blueprints, manuscripts, joint ventures, medical records, permits, and trade secrets and many more. When MtGox were alive, such intangible asset doesn't enter finance balance sheet neither as asset value or liability value. It would if MtGox exchanged them (trade) for his account with buy/sell price. MtGox when alive these btc just had to record in secundary books as btc +/- held analiticaly for each user. Under bankruptcy proceedings, such a intangible assets as bitcoin is very hard to assest (evaluate), usualy trustee waits until last minute bankrupt company to liquidate them or best bid (°) and to update btc evaluation value what prior were blank, in order creditors get as much as possible. In our case, trustee did not do that and I have not found anything what would make him to evaluate at start of the filling the claims. (°)Actually I think, in case of public auction certain restriction might apply, certain party can't bid (I might be wrong).
However, not all asset are in the same category. In my country, bitcoin is regarded as financial asset, it does not matter is it tangible or not. If I as a person or the company make money from trading internet domains, it would be regarded as income subject to the tax. But if I as a person (not company) make money from exchanging certain personal financial assets, btc, any currency, diamonds, gemstone, gold and earn (dividends and interest excluded) from the positive rate difference, it would not be income subjected to income tax. But in same situation, company would be subjected to the taxes. Capital gain has two separate catogory, dividends what is profit on top of asset (asset reamin) and capital gain from the trade of asset, where one asset is exchanged to another asset and profit is from the rate difference, which can be either positive either negative.
There was a lawsuit against bankrupt Mtgox where user requested full btc refund what were denied with this explanation:
Presiding Judge Masumi Kurachi said the Civil Code envisages proprietorship for tangible entities that occupy space and allow for exclusive control over them. The judge said it is evident bitcoins do not possess the properties of tangible entities...
Basicly that mean, bitcoin is intangible where envisaged proprietorship can't be claimed as they are not phisical in nature and because Mtgox had exclusive control!(based on Japan civil code btw what is 120 years old (°), but what about corrporation/commerce law?) Beside, whatever is exclusive control of said bitcoin (intangible asset) depend on mutual contract, user agreement, term and conditions. Regardless, it was right Court call in this case, they just couldn't return full btc holdings, no chance whasoever, it would be a nightmire for the rest of users who doesn't follow his step, but if he accepted loss of aprox 3/4 btc and wanted only remaining 1/4 rulling might be different.
(°) The National Diet approved significant amendment to the Civil Code in May 2017 to update the Civil Code which is approximately 120 years old. Some general rules and many provisions regarding contracts were amended. The amended Civil Code will be enacted sometime before June 2020.
Edit: Our btc and any other currency balances held at MtGox with 2014 market value is our claim against mtgox all assets. BTC belong to the Mtgox -we creditors only claim that debt. Even these BTC are sold at higher rate then 2014. this just make raise in value of the mtgox liquid financial asset (while intangible asset btc exit books), but doesn't automaticly raise mtgox debts to us! Debt stays as is. According to the mtgoxlegal lawyer, new claim evaluation is not possible and I agree. Then how we the creditors, even in CR will be able to claim the btc as they dont belong to us as btc, but only current debt? Its like we sold our btc at 2014. at 483$ to the Mtgox who never paid us and that value we claim now within our claims. Try to imagine how btc dont exist or it exist but with same rate in 2018 as in 2014. We would be in the same situation if JPY rate against all other currency went to the roof, but btc are still at around 500$. Like its not in 2014, 1usd=103 JPY, but let say in 2018, 1usd=100,000 JPY, our claims would still reflect 2014 rates (even in CR) btc are not different. Even if CR reopen the window for filling claims and evaluation of the ALL claims, it would be at 2014. market rates!
I have a idea where we could get something over our current claims, but still brainstorming and many users won't like it as that is not what they expect to get. I think we are fucked - worst case scenario. Even if someone try to sue based on btc balances once held at Mtgox, it would fail. It might be different case, if Mark(•) said before bankruptcy, hey, these btc never belonged to the Mtgox, return what is left after audit to the mtgox users and then start bankruptcy to try get what went missing from real owned mtgox asset, what is not much and beside, I think bankruptcy would be terminated on grounds how mtgox asset can't even cover administrative creditors who have priority, let alone other creditors. (•) (All three insolvency proceedings can be filed either voluntarily or involuntarily. Generally, no one, including a debtor or any of its creditors, is obligated to file a petition to commence insolvency proceedings under Japanese law.).
50k JPY per bitcoin from creditors approved claim from 2014. is not binding because of Mtgox online claim system state it (or offline claim signiture), but its final and binding based on the Japan Bankruptcy Act court rulling and applicible as binding contractual Agreement in any other Japan proceeding, or eglible laws, Civil Rehabilitation included. Beside, that is only one reason, other reason is how Mtgox is in the bankruptcy proceeding since 2014. its never completed, eventual civil rehabilitation is only transition and if it ever commence, Mtgox is still under rehabilitation Act where for creditors claim total on 2014 rates total nothing change, but can increase distribution from the debtor profits max 100% claim total value (Mtgox has already enough funds or asset to sell to cover 100% payout). Third reason is how Mtgox users are regarded as last class unprotected non-priority creditors. And more reasons, but you get the picture! There is not much difference for the last class of creditors (Mtgox users) between liquidation or civil rehabilitation.
Due to Mtgox terms of use and accounting, Mtgox users are something as unsecured none-priority trade creditors without right to retain proprietorship of sold/bought, but unpaid btc (goods) until actual user withdraw. Real IN and OUT for both fiat and bitcoin with Mtgox are deposits and withdraw, trading are all just virtual balancing and Mtgox is in bankruptcy since 2014. without activity for creditors in regard on this IN and OUT (or trade). Otherwise, if we had legal grounds to get Mtgox btc asset surplus, we would get portion of non-stolen bitcoin back long time ago either outside of bankruptcy or within as separate satisfaction and with that portion btc back, would be able to claim damages for the missing bitcoins.
Anybody can (sponsor) buy MtGox capital (surplus included) and negotiate ~2000-3000$ per bitcoin where sponsor would need ~400-500M$ fresh capital (to take surplus and liabilities) and for that need civil rehabilitation, but nothing change for the creditor claims value (50k JPY/BTC), sponsor is still obligated only creditors claim total value and when settled, sponsor can use surplus free, fresh as their choice. If sponsor is a (group) of creditors, from that ~400-500M$ their claim total on 2014 rates is deducted. Bitcoins balances can't be segretated, otherwise creditors would have it long time ago.
Be careful who use you (creditor) to send umbiguous letters to their lawyers, surveys, without really knowing concrete and detailed plan and what is creditor benefit and how and on what legal grounds they plan to achive it, don't accept diplomatic responses! If somebody want to be a sponsor, I accept it, its a busines, but if nothing change to my creditor claim value with concrete plan how to achive it, it would just further delay distribution! Then its sponsor benefit, not ALL creditors benefit, even though might look like it! Read Bankruptcy and Rehabitilation Acts to learn about trustee duties and responsibilities and how Mtgox trustee have no say in this, trustee only follow court issued order.
Its not only this binding claim value a problem! If we had legal grounds on surplus btc assets, we would be secured creditors and would get portion of non-stolen bitcoin back long time ago either outside of bankruptcy or within, as separate satisfaction and with that portion btc back, would be able to claim damages for the missing bitcoins. I just don't understand people who spent $100k-200k for lawyers blind trust where lawyers just ensure them to think how CR somehow make Mtgox users what are last unsecured non-prority class of creditors into secured creditors with preserved propetorship of Mtgox bitcoin balances, who can claim bitcoin seperatelly either as btc or liquidated value and who could not claim that in the bankruptcy liquidation, but somehow magically in Civil Rehabilitation they can! Based on what legal grounds? Group lawyer told them how would need an court precedent in order creditors get above of 2014 rates claim value!? Precedent? If Mtgox users had agreemant what state how all balances (btc and fiat) are preserved propietorship until user withdraw, we would have aprox 1/4 btc long time ago and no precedent is required for that, (I could tell them this for free).
MtGox case were true Caveat Emptor. Finally, we all bought and sold bitcoin what was not actually fully unspent at Mtgox bitcoin wallets and users monetary balances did not reflect fully MtGox bank account balances.
04/22. I tried to discuss at mtgoxlegal group about counter-arguments what would overturn this major problems in order to help group lawyers, even we end up with nothing, but many misunderstund and bombarded me with questions to defend this and insulted me personaly, because some are ignorant, arrogant, rude, on ego trip and missed the the point how I must post problems first in order to discuss about valid arguments to overturn it, otherwise they would not understand what I talk about. They asked me even to prove it??? Imagine ignorance! Creditor situation is already funded within Japan bankruptcy and Rehabilitation Acts, Civil and Corporate Code, but I have to prove it to them! OMG, that all I can say on that. Wrong group to discuss obviously!
Even by some magic CR commence (if Tibanne appeal fail), it does not mean creditors get anything above of already approved claim total based on 2014 rates, unless Mtgox trustee state it so and rehabitilation plan is confirmed within 5 months after commencement.
submitted by alfabi to mtgoxinsolvency [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Dissemination

Hello everyone, long time reader but today I finally decided to post. Like most people here, I'm really excited about Bitcoin's potential however I wanted to start a post where we can layout the flow of how Bitcoin can be disseminated throughout the masses. The main motivation for this is that most of us here are pretty techsavvy, but most people aren't and I think the whole process as to how to acquire Bitcoins, holding them and spending them is a lot different than the status quo, creating an adoption barrier - or maybe I'm mistaken and hopefully this thread will clear things up. My biggest worry is that as I watch the price flux on Mtgox and other exchanges, it seems to me that people are just trading Bitcoins (or just buying and holding with the hopes that the price will go up) instead of actually spending them...and without an actual demand to buy bitcoins and new Bitcoins being generated everyday, I'm worried that the economy will collapse because of the lack of actual trade. We need to get people to actually start trading Bitcoin for products and services!
So what I want to do is identify current methods to buy, sell, trade and hold Bitcoins and ask questions that hopefully the Bitcoin community can answer and hopefully generate new ideas as people read along.
So what are the current methods for people to acquire Bitcoins to purchase items? Online Exchanges, in-person exchanges, gift cards? Income for labour? Donations, free give-a-ways?
How can we make it more convenient for people to acquire Bitcoins? I know there has been a lot of news lately because of money-laundering and now the big exchanges are taking more measures for sign-up verification (which is fine, I understand this), but if we want the masses to start accepting bitcoin and using them to facilitate trade, they're not going to flock to the exchanges. They're going to want a service to just click or swipe and purchases their products. What other ways are there to exchange fiat for Bitcoin?
How do we get merchants to accept Bitcoin? From the eyes of the merchant, Bitcoin is just another system I have to manage, why should I adopt it? I know reduction in fees is a major incentive, but what else?
What about point of sale? What equipment will merchants need to complete a physical point of sale? A webcam, software and an internet connection? Also how are transactions confirmed in a short period of time? Obviously people can't wait 6 confirmations for a PoS so how do we give the merchant confidence to use Bitcoin or an instantaneous transaction? Main reason I ask this, is that I want to get more merchants in my area (I'm from Toronto) to start accepting Bitcoin and I'm not exactly sure how to go about this.
I'm going to imagine Escrow services are going to become popular as well to help promote quicker transactions and/or mediate them, do we go down this route? If we do, I would imagine that this will introduce another fee which will erode the incentive to use Bitcoin.
The current method of having your VISA or Mastercard makes it pretty convenient to swipe and purchase and pay your bill later - how are people going to this with Bitcoin? QR code that is scanned using an App? Also, I'm not promoting buying through credit but frankly most of us do this to collect point /cash back or don't have enough funds in their debit. People are going to want a service that is just as convenient or even easier to manage.
With regards to storage, I'm going to hazard to say that most people will want to use an online service to manage their Bitcoins. I know there are many offline services/programs, but I think the majority of people will adopt Bitcoin like a paypal service with the incentive of reduced fees and hopefully better convenience. I know Bitcoin has the potential to do a lot more than just be a "paypal" service, but people are not forward thinking - what are you offering now, and how does it make me better off.
That's it for now, hopefully we can stimulate some conversation to help promote Bitcoin and ultimately a more convenient and efficient flow from the consumer -> merchant -> labourer -> consumer.
Happy Bitcoining!
submitted by A_Tout_Le_Monde to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

[ANN] getBspendB.com, the new way to BUY and SPEND bitcoins!

Introducing: getBspendB, the new way for you to GET and SPEND bitcoins!
getBspendB is a marketplace that connects bitcoin "Spenders" and bitcoin "Buyers" by leveraging Amazon wishlists. By creating a platform for Buyers to easily, safely, anonymously, and quickly purchase bitcoins, the Spender gains wide selection of Amazon merchandise at BELOW FIAT prices.
So how does GBSB work?
  1. First, the Spender creates an Amazon wishlist and shares the wishlist link featuring delicious coconut water priced at $26.99 with GBSB. The price is calculated and discounted (at 4% during beta), so the order will cost $25.91 or ฿0.2029*). If Spender's account balance is sufficiently funded, the order will be place in the orderbook for Buyers to grab.
  2. Bitcoin Buyers shares with GBSB how much BTC he wants to buy. GBSB returns him several similarly valued options to choose from. Buyer then purchases the products in the wishlist and selecting the Spender's hidden ship-to address (known only to Amazon).
  3. Amazon ships the items directly to the Spender. Buyer provides the tracking number to GBSB and Spender for an ETA.
  4. Upon receiving, Spender confirms with GBSB that package has arrived, and the bitcoins (minus a 5% fee) are released from escrow. Buyer can then withdraw the bitcoins to his private wallet, or use it as he wishes.
Seems kinda complicated you might say. There are so many parties involved in this single transaction.
Our Implementation focuses on the user experience. We aim to make the entire transaction eat no more than 20 minutes of each user's time. GBSB aims to be a fresh and unconventional method of exchange, that addresses several problems in the bitcoin ecosystem.
Currently available options for Buyers
It's too difficult to acquire them and buy things with them.
-theymos, admin of bitcointalk.org
It has only gotten harder since.
  • Traditional exchanges like BitStamp and MtGox are easily the cheapest methods of purchasing bitcoins in volume. However, an international wire costs at least $50 in wire and deposit fees while taking 2-5 days before reaching BitStamp. This high barrier prevents anything less than several thousand dollar transactions economical. The long paper trails and heavy scrutiny may be an additional concern for customers that value privacy. Policy transparency vary between exchanges: BitStamp provide timely warnings for customers to accommodate for regulatory conformity, while MtGox has been less inclined to disclose their situation.
  • Fixed rate meta exchanges such as the US based Coinbase takes advantage of the ACH system to remove the transfer cost completely. The 1% fee makes Coinbase a top choice for US buyers after the initial gauntlet. ACH has higher fraud risk than wire transfers, so Coinbase wisely minimize that risk by curating clients through ever-increasing levels of personal information verification steps, limiting customer purchasing power, and delivers bitcoins some point between 3-60 days (average is closer to 7 for the first time user). Occasionally clients report of being declined after days of waiting or frustration over verification steps. Coinbase's operation is highly opaque, with security holes that by pass limitations, sudden changes due to manipulation, and knee-jerk policy changes without warning. Coinbase however is backed by Silicon Valley big shots, so they are well funded enough to absorb the cost of the occasional mishap.
  • Since regulatory pressure tightened, the most recommended and fastest growing exchanges are decentralized exchanges, namely localbitcoins. The unqiue ability for closely proximate bitcoin traders to meet in person and safely trasact using good old cash. They help build personal relationships and trust between traders and provides an outlet for newer users to learn from more experienced ones. Of course, there is the occasional awkwardness, or the nearest seller being 3 hours away, or the insurmountable fear of leaving your basement (it's okay, we understand). Localbitcoin's online exchange is another method that offers any payment option imaginable by hundreds of bitcoin sellers online at all times. Prices vary, methods vary, user honesty also vary. This is perhaps the only major exchange at the moment that preserves anonymity of trades resonably well today. The reason for their success, is the same for bitcoins. Decentralization; peer-2-peer. I am a huge fan of localbitcoin and often traded there. However, their seemingly weekly feature updates, unintuitive UI and choice of words make navigation a bit tedious.
The GBSB Experience - Buyer
getBspendB is partly modeled after localbitcoin's decentralized nature, but serving a different purpose and offers many advantages over localbitcoin from Buyers' perspective. A fixed rate and fewer standardized options won't force Buyers from learning about all the different payment methods, or choosing between vendors based on their rate and reputation. The process needs only 20 minutes over 3 vists to the site, and 2-3 day wait to become the newest proud bitcoin user. Buying bitcoins is now literally as easy as shopping on Amazon.
  1. First visit requires registration, and selection a wishlist of suitable value to purchase for. Confrm the purchase after paying (Protip: Amazon Prime is your friend) and come back when Amazon has shipped.
  2. The second visit simply involves pasting the tracking number so everyone knows package ETA.
  3. Once package arrives, Spender confirms, Buyer logs back in one final time to withdraw the bitcoins.
Currently available options for Spenders
actual stuff selling for cheaper than dollars, rather than for more money than dollars
-nanotube, founder of #bitcoin-otc and Web of Trust, in private IRC conversation
The purchasing power of bitcoin has significantly improved in the past several months. 3 new types of "general stores" like Amazon have emerged on the scene.
  • The oldest is bitcoinstore. Users generally report competitive prices but tedious user experience. Bitcoinstore is in a unique position to be the Amazon of bitcoin, but they do not seem to be making an effort to improve the UI and search functions of the site, making potential savings less desirable. The sophisticated bitcoin users understand that time = money.
  • Another class of options is the all4btc and the defunct bitspend.net model. These services allow users shop as they normally would on their favorite sites, but rather than buying via credit card, they'd submit the item to these services, which return with a price in BTC to pay including an added processing fee for their effort to manually purchase the item for the customer. A more serious flaw of these businesses is an issue of unproven security and additional party to trust with your personal information. All4btc claims a 5% fee, but a quick test using same coconut water resulted in an invoice of ฿0.3672* or $46.08 in market USD cost. It wasn't clear as to what caused 70% markup, but the average US bitcoiner who probably has credit cards (or access to gift cards) has no economic incentive to pay any additional fee. There was a fee to buy bitcoins, so certainly there shouldn't be another to spend them. All4btc does have a seemingly cool chrome plug-in that can simplify purchases, but I got an error while trying to install so was not able to test. Bitspend is now defunct, partly due to their quick success and unscalability. Because orders were processed manually, the appearance of security and professionalism brought in enough customers that they were more often offline, waiting for mtgox withdraws. Abusing Amazon Prime TOS, Chase credit card benefits, and endless money cycling basically forced the bank to close their accounts.
  • Finally, several gift card vendors like gyft and egifter opens up many great merchants, including Amazon, to bitcoin consumers. Users comments are generally very favorable. The only drawbacks are the additional middlemen, smartphone app is sometimes required, and the bitcoins are likely converted directly to USD thus not actually expanding the bitcoin economy. Selection is wide enough such that if one dares to risk most of his net worth in bitcoin, he can at least stay alive.
    *rate of $125. 
The GBSB Experience - Spender
Because merchants benefits form near zero transaction costs of bitcoin and zero fraud risk, the reputable and competitive merchant must reduce the price (about 5%) on items paid in bitcoin. Given the hassle and cost of acquiring bitcoins, zero premium is still an uneconomic choice for the consumer. This lack of economic benefit is the sole barrier preventing bitcoin from becoming the glorious currency it should be. We aim to keep the fee low enough so that it's always cheaper for Spenders to replaced spent coins from exchanges in order to create a deep market for Buyers.
Remainder in comments
Or get on the list now!
submitted by getBspendB to getBspendB [link] [comments]

[Table] IAmA full-time Bitcoin day-trader, blogger, and explainer. I was a pro TCG player. Here until Midnight EST. AMA!

Verified? (This bot cannot verify AMAs just yet)
Date: 2014-02-20
Link to submission (Has self-text)
Questions Answers
Let's say someone was looking for a stay at home computer job, would you recommend doing what you do? Is it something you can hop into, or is it something a lot of time must be put into before considerable income comes? You handle risk and pressure well, and you don't let your emotions guide your decision-making. Professional Poker and TCG players often develop this skillset.
You have experience working with stocks, bonds, derivatives, foreign exchange, or other financial instruments. If you have a strong mathematical background, that would also likely fulfill this.
You can invest significant capital into trading while remaining financially secure if it all suddenly vanishes.
You are capable of constantly monitoring a situation, waking up in the middle of the night if an alarm goes off, etc. It requires serious dedication.
You are good at keeping up with news, understanding market psychology, and "feeling" shifts in attitude and perception among other market participants.
Of those, I'd be most cautious if you don't meet no. 3. Going bust is a real possibility--day-trading a volatile commodity is inherently extremely high-risk. Nos. 2 and 4 are the easiest to learn or force through routine. No. 1 requires a person who approaches things in an emotionally detached manner. No. 5 is something that comes with investing enough time.
Second question: I'm answering this after that big block of text because this answer will come off like a get-rich-quick scheme. Yes, you can hop into it very quickly, and you can start making very high profits very quickly. I put in a small initial investment to test the waters, and made 10% on it in a few days. If you have the right skillset, composure, and resources, yes. It is a potentially very lucrative and exciting stay-at-home job. It is not for everyone, though.
As much as it would be beneficial for me (being in the industry and all), to tell everyone it's easy and that it will help them provide for themselves I feel that people need to know the real risks that are involved. Regardless, that's all a little irrelevant. We're not playing the house, and we're not flipping coins. We're playing other investors, and we're making actual decisions. You keep saying things like "98% lose money" and "Go onto any FOREX forum, and you will see from the users posts that they pretty much all lose money" but you don't back it up. Cool, yeah, it's a zero-sum game with a rake: a little more than half of the players will lose. That's expected. They'll probably complain about it, too, huh?
Retrospect can have a very positive effect. Got any real account trading statements I can have a look at? Let's see how fast you can come up with excuses not to show me ;) I only have and need one: I have chosen not to disclose my personal valuation for privacy reasons. Same reason I've had all along. I instead publicly disclose my trades, as they happen, on my website. The posts are timestamped, and the ones that are the start of a position contain the price I entered at. Go check the posts, then go check the charts, then go check my archive. But feel free to continue to arbitrarily call my credibility into question--that makes your argument better!
What leverage do you use? In Australia the leverage is typically 100:1, perhaps that's why your not seeing how risky I deem it to be. First, our argument so far has had nothing to do with risk. Second, I told you I am leveraged 2.5:1, two posts ago. Third, you realize I'm trading Bitcoin, not ForEx, correct? And that no one in their right mind would offer 100:1 leverage on Bitcoin due to its volatility?
What's your last year's hourly salary? A year ago I was finishing up college and extricating myself from the TCG business I'd co-founded. I took very little in take-home pay over that period, but kept part ownership of the continuing business. Money isn't just about the number on your bank account--it's also about residual future income.
How many hours a week are you typically on a computer? On a computer, probably 50-55, if you add in time I spend on my phone, I'd say 65-70. Day trading takes constant watchfulness. I imagine it's like an easier version of taking care of a baby.
What are your favorite to sources of news besides waiting for it to get to the front/hot page of /Bitcoin when it's several hours old? I have an IFTTT for /BitcoinMarkets and /Bitcoin that notifies me early on about some posts.
What's the weirdest thing about your mom? She started a bookselling business online in her 50s and makes more money than me.
Or.
She's a little old lady who loves gadgets and technology.
What are your thoughts on Dogecoin and other bitcoin competitors? Do you think any have staying value? LTC.
DOGE.
NXT.
VTC.
Coins that offer something different or that have a strong community to them can be valuable prospects.
LTC is the first-mover scrypt coin - DOGE has the most non-techies interested in its success and is spreading quickly as a result - NXT is a cool generation two coin that has a lot of features BTC doesn't have - VTC is ASIC-resistant
Ok, let me spell it out to you. The retail forex market only makes up 5% of the total forex markets liquidity. The other 95% is from hedge funds and institutions. Therefore, 99% of the retail market losing their money is very possible, as that only makes up 4.95% of the whole market. Is it possible that 4.95% of the market generally loses? Yes. How is that infeasible? Nope. That's a false equivalence. It is possible that 4.95% of the market loses. It is not feasible, that, say, 99% of people with blue eyes lose. What, exactly, in empirical terms, is the difference between retail investors and hedge/institutions that causes this INCREDIBLE disparity? Would you care to respond to my above empirical argument that demonstrates that a zero-decision system is flipping a losing coin? Do you consider it feasible for 99% of people playing a 45-55 game to lose?
Are there options and/or futures markets for Bitcoin? Not really yet, but there will be more prominent ones soon. I hear about a new one pretty regularly, it seems, but nothing that seems truly legitimate has come out. I'm certainly excited for them, though.
Eventually, once Mr. Lawsky and co. get things sorted out, I'm certain we'll see a big-name investment bank start offering them.
From the time you started trading until today, what is your overall percentage return? In USD, my percentage return calculated from investment to current valuation is about 300% over a little more than 2 months.
In BTC, my percentage return calculated from investment to current valuation is about 425% over a little more than 2 months.
Using my average per-coin buy-in price, if I had just bought-and-held, I would have lost about 27% of my initial investment value.
Ben, i told you I'd be here and asking about Hearthstone first. If there's one class that needs a bit of tuning, up or down, which is it and why? I think Mage needs basic, class-level tuning. I'm not sure what needs to be done exactly, but I don't like what the Mage class power does to gameplay. I've thought some about how different it would be if it could only hit minions, and I'd want to know if Blizzard had tried that out. The Mage power is too versatile, and over the long-term I think it will prove to be problematic.
What's your favorite card? Lord Jaraxxus is my favorite card. He has a truly legendary feel to him when you play him, but your opponent can still win, even though he's very powerful.
So, where do you think we go from here? I'm currently short, but I don't expect to be so for a lot longer. I don't think we'll get past 550. I also don't expect this drop to hold on for a really long time.
I haven't seen a good, substantive rationale for what the MtGox situation really has to do with Bitcoin price. Yes, it looks bad, it certainly doesn't help with our legitimacy, but is it really worth the incredible price declines we continue to see? I don't think so. I think we are seeing these impressive declines because the price on MtGox (which is a reflection of trust in MtGox relative to Bitcoin price, not just Bitcoin price) has been declining heavily. I don't expect it to continue forever, especially not with things like the Winkdex and the accompanying ETF launching.
MtGox is basically dead to me, for now at least. The sooner everyone stops paying attention to it, the sooner we can all get back on track, which I, for one, will be quite happy about.
Do you think that it's a good thing for a game when the developers of that game discourage certain playing styles (e.g. mill decks or decks that try to win in unconventional manners) whether in hearthstone, MTG, or other TCGs? It can be. I don't want the developers metaphorically over my shoulder outlawing strategies, but I don't mind if the strategies that are "less fun" for your opponent (Draw/Go, Mill, or Hard Combo from MTG, for example) are also less powerful. Most players prefer a game where the best decks are also among the most fun, because it means that they are playing against fun decks more often. Clearly the 2-cost 3/3 will be played most often. If you fix this by making both 2-cost guys 2/2s or 3/3s, or by making one a 2/3 and the other a 3/2, then you've done something--but it's not that interesting. If you instead make the 2-cost 2/2 have text that says "While you control the 3-cost 3/3, this gets +2/+2" and you give the 3 cost 3/3 text that says "While you control the 2-cost 2/2, it has Taunt" you now have more complex cards that reward players for doing something other than just playing the best stand-alone card.
Which do you think is a better option to encourage diversity in TCGs; improving/buffing cards/decks that hardly see any play versus weakening/nerfing cards that are overwhelmingly played? This is obviously a very simplistic example, but I hope it makes the point. Games are more fun when you give players more relevant choices: buffing and nerfing cards tends not to do that as well as promoting synergies does.
Where/what is the actual money behind bitcoin? If it does exist. You might need to rephrase your question for me to understand what you're asking. If you're asking why a Bitcoin has value, the answer is the same as any other good: because someone is willing to pay it.
If you're asking why someone is willing to pay that amount, my answer would be utility.
I just got started on Bitfinex (using your referral link) and am a little intimidated. What types of trades would I recommend I try as a beginner? From there, just keep careful watch, and see what happens. Be neutral and objective toward your own hypothesis, just like in science. Don't be biased by your hopes, be focused on the reality.
So far I've only done a liquidity swap offer to try it since it seemed (nearly) risk free. Have you done any liquidity swap or is it too low in profit? If I'm not going to be able to check my computer for a day or two, or I'm uncertain of what's going to happen the next few days, I do use the liquidity swap function. It's actually very profitable, relative to traditional investments. And you're right, it is low-risk. I'm a fan. Good job selecting it if you were intimidated--that's a good place to start. As far as actually starting trading, do science. Start with a hypothesis. If you were up at 5 AM today when MtGox published their announcement, a good hypothesis might have been something like: "This announcement is going to be a blow to their credibility, and might panic the markets. We'll probably drop by some amount as a result." Invest based on it, figure out around what price you want to take profits, and at what price you'll cut your losses and get out. Stick to those determinations unless something substantive changes. The time you tell yourself you can afford to not close your position because it will "rebound" back to where you want is also the time you lose your shirt.
Is it true that you like Balloons? No, I <3 them.
Lol to the question about your mom... Ben, from my understanding Bitcoin is anonymous, does this mean that you can avoid taxation when receiving payment? Bitcoin isn't anonymous. That's actually a common misconception. It's actually pseudonymous, like Reddit. You end up with an online identity--a wallet address--that you use with Bitcoin.
If I walk up to you on a street corner and buy Bitcoin with cash, then I'm pretty much anonymous. If I buy it from a large institution like Coinbase or some other company, they will have records of the address my Bitcoin was bought for. As a result, you can trace them down, generally speaking.
As for avoiding taxation, that's a general no.
What do you think Bitcoin's biggest hurdle is and how do you think it can be overcome? Are there any misconceptions about Bitcoin that you think people have? The biggest hurdle for Bitcoin to overcome is governments. Governments have a variety of reasons not to want an alternative currency. We seem to have done pretty well on that front here in the US, but for other countries (China) that is not the case. Past that, the other major hurdle is something I consider an inevitability: consumer adoption. Business adoption has begun in earnest, consumer adoption hasn't. It will when enough businesses take Bitcoin to give it sufficient utility for the average customer.
What trading platform do you use to daytrade Bitcoin? What is the standard margin that Bitcoin brokers offer? what's the typical ask/bid spread? I primarily use Bitfinex.
Very few Bitcoin brokers currently offer leverage, Bitfinex offers 2.5:1. Over time, I anticipate it will become more like current Forex, where 10:1 or greater leverage is common.
It varies by exchange depending on their fees. Huobi charges 0% fees, so their spread is generally tiny. Some exchanges can be as wide as 1.5%. Typically, I see spreads between .5 and .7%.
Do you invest in any other type of cryptocurrency? if so, which is your favorite besides bitcoin? I currently have no other holdings, but I've held DOGE and LTC at points and am considering VTC and NXT. DOGE is probably my favorite, because if the community can keep this up for a little longer it will snowball into amaze.
Can you trade me a Jace? TMS WWK, TMS FTV, Beleren, MA, or AoT?
Beleren. M10, M11, LOR, JVC, JVCJPN, or Book Promo?
M10 and if not possible then M11. Sure.
I've been reading your blog for quite some time and especially like your summaries for recent events. Keep up the good work! Do you use strict stop-loss orders for your trades? When do you decide to close a trade? Especially in situations where you can basically see you profit/loss grow by the minute. When is enough? Do you have a longterm bitcoin investment you don't touch or do you use everything you have for trading? I do use relatively strict stop losses, but they're not stop loss orders. My conditions usually aren't just the price hitting a certain point, but instead it sustaining for a brief period, or hitting it with a certain volume, or with a certain amount of resistance to retreat. I don't want my stop loss to be triggered by some idiot who dumps 300 BTC and temporarily drops the price 15, but only ends up really dropping it 3. I am very strict with myself about this, though, generally speaking--if I can't trust promises I make to myself, what good am I?
Let's say for example you have a sum x dollar and a sum y bitcoin on your trading account. How much % of x or y do you risk at every trade? I've seen a formula for the max. amount of investment and read numerous times that traders shouldn't risk more than one or two percent of their "bankroll". Do you generally have dollar and btc or just one of them at any given time? 100% of funds in every trade, so long as all funds are easily moved into the position. Common exceptions are lack of liquidity and funds being on other exchanges. My reasoning for being all-in all-the-time is that it's a profit-maximizing move. It is also risk-maximizing. My risk tolerance is infinite; most people's isn't. Only ever one. Generally BTC if I'm long, dollar if I'm short. I prefer to double-dip, as otherwise it would be in contradiction to the 100% plan. I use everything I have for trading. Again, profit-maximization, infinite risk tolerance.
I decide a closing price when I'm near either my stop loss or my profit aim. I place a limit order or multiple limit orders wherever I need to. I avoid market orders whenever possible. Enough is when I hit my goals or my loss tolerance. I decide these at the start, but I frequently re-evaluate them as news and market conditions develop.
What is a typical bid/ask spread for Bitcoin? It depends what exchange you're looking at, but generally .5-.7%.
What's the best way to popularize Bitcoin among the masses? Add your own but would love your thoughts on: -microtransactions developing nations -gift economy (tipping) I would suggest just running around shouting "You get to be your own bank" is probably the best way.
In all seriousness, though--we don't need to try. It's going to happen on its own from now on, as the news media slowly starts to pick up the story. People will start appearing on TV talking about it with more and more frequency. Things like the Dogelympic teams are great PR and help boost it up, as well, of course, but in general it's just going to follow the adoption curve of every other technology.
If it picks up in a few developing nations that have stable internet, it will be a massive revolution for them. Self-banking can do a huge amount of good for an economy like theirs. We might see reports on that. If a major newspaper decides to run a permanent paywall like what the Sun-Times tested recently, that could be big as well. The slow PR from tipping on Reddit is another way, to be honest. Every bit helps, but the cryptocurrency community is now large enough that we're going to do a significant amount of organic, word-of-mouth style growth.
Do you think that a magic game could beat harthstone? If they do a good job, absolutely. They have to focus on the right things. It needs to be mobile-available, easy to pick up and play, and fun.
Is there a good crypto currency to get in on now, before it explodes like bitcoin did? There are plenty of options. Check out coinmarketcap.com. Fair warning, there are plenty of horrible things there--treat it kind of like penny stocks. I like BTC, LTC, DOGE, NXT, and VTC.
Also, why is it such a pain in the ass to buy them with actual money? Like you have to have bitcoins to buy other crypto currency. It's such a pain to buy them with USD because no one has made a good system to do it on, like Coinbase. If you think there's a desire, go do it!
Well the way I look at it, is how the hell else would you be able to buy them? Not everyone has piles of bitcoins lying around and I really don't want to spend $600+ on a single bitcoin just to buy some other currencies. Ah, I see the problem! You can buy fractions of a Bitcoin using Coinbase--I think .01BTC (~$6) is their minimum.
The March 2013 appreciation was from American and European investors and November 2013 was mainly from Chinese investors. Which group of people do you think will be the next to buy (I hate using the word invest when talking about bitcoin) bitcoin for investment purposes? American institutional and hobby investors. That is, Wall Street and people who pay attention to Wall Street.
Which do you think will be a better long term (~5 years) investment, Bitcoins, Litecoins, Dogecoins, Fetch Lands, Shock Lands, or Original Dual Lands? Does it change for ~10 years? Either Bitcoin or Fetch lands for 5 years. For 10 years, Bitcoin. I'd be worried about the 10-year view for paper MTG.
Ive been mining Bitcoins for years now, i have a good sum im my wallet but i never plan to use them. Does this make me a bad person? Approximately yes.
Ben, I should've simultaneously copied and pasted all of my questions from the Spreecast over to here but here are a few... It seems like the conspiracy crowd has really latched onto the idea of Bitcoin as being a discreet form of currency. If Bitcoin is backed up by the internet why would people choose having a currency that's being tracked over say cash, gold, different commodities? Having a currency be tracked has negatives and positives, but it's overwhelmingly positive for the average consumer. Because it's tracked, you don't need to pay someone to move your money for you. There also are no chargebacks, which means merchants aren't getting scammed and passing those costs onto consumers. Theft costs everyone money. It's also very fast--transactions confirm in just 10 minutes, regardless of size or where it's going. Transferring dollars from here to China is very difficult--transferring Bitcoin? Just as easy as from anywhere else to anywhere.
My job is a mix of voodoo, intuition, science, and news. In USD, my percentage return calculated from investment to current valuation is about 300% over a little more than 2 months.
No, just gambling. In BTC, my percentage return calculated from investment to current valuation is about 425% over a little more than 2 months.
Anyway, how have the profits been from start to finish compared to the market? Using my average per-coin buy-in price, if I had just bought-and-held, I would have lost about 27% of my initial investment value.
Are you willing to disclose how much you have in your trading portfolio/what kind of profit you turn both % and $ wise? In USD, my percentage return calculated from investment to current valuation is about 300% over a little more than 2 months.
In BTC, my percentage return calculated from investment to current valuation is about 425% over a little more than 2 months.
Using my average per-coin buy-in price, if I had just bought-and-held, I would have lost about 27% of my initial investment value.
What would you say is the easiest method of shorting bitcoin or any other coin? For shorting Bitcoin or Litecoin, check here.
For other coins, there isn't really a good way yet, to the best of my knowledge. A few exchanges have plans to add short-selling, but Bitfinex is really the only one I know of that has.
What did you have for breakfast today. Didn't breakfast, was delicious.
Hey Ben, I know next to nothing about Bitcoin. I went to /bitcoin after seeing this AMA on your FB, and I noticed that everyone is going apeshit over "Gox". I have no idea what that means or why everyone is so sad/angry/suicidal. MtGox (which originally stood for Magic the Gathering Online eXchange) was the first prominent Bitcoin exchange. They've been going through some rather rough times lately, some of which I was an early cataloguer of here. In short, everyone is freaking out because the exchange may be insolvent. It's not really a big deal to Bitcoin as a whole, but it's certainly an obvious blow to credibility. In my view, people are primarily upset because MtGox has been a part of Bitcoin for a very long time, and it can be hard to let go of what we're used to. I expect that they will either fix the issues or will go out of business officially very soon.
Please explain what happened.
Tell me every artist in your iTunes. Daft Punk, detektivbyrån, Kid Cudi, Matisyahu, The White Panda.
Spotify for life, yo.
Follow up question, what % are you in BTC vs Fiat and when you are on the losing side of a trade do you find your self dumping in more to get right or do you pull the cord Unless my positions are on different exchanges or in different coins, they're all always 100% of what I'll put into that trade at entrance and exit. As a result, I end up with a binary choice: stay or reduce/close. I very rarely reduce position size, nearly always preferring to just end the position instead.
Last updated: 2014-02-25 04:57 UTC
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MtGox Bitcoins to BTC e Bitcoins in 50 seconds Bitcoin Rap  MS Werd and Cracked at SXSW Bitcoin Game Bitcoin Came SO CLOSE TO BULL MARKET CONFIRMATION - Is It Still In The Cards? passive fund - YouTube

r/litecoin: For discussion about Litecoin, the leading cryptocurrency derived from Bitcoin. Litecoin is developed with a focus on speed, efficiency … Press J to jump to the feed. Press question mark to learn the rest of the keyboard shortcuts. r/litecoin. log in sign up. User account menu. 0. Litecoins [LTC] on MTGOX.COM Confirmation (Screenshot Proof) Close. 0. Posted by. u/truth_teller_ 6 ... Jed McCaleb, the founder of Mt. Gox, faces a lawsuit over his handling of the now-defunct bitcoin exchange. The two plaintiffs, former Mt. Gox traders Joseph Jones and Peter Steinmetz, filed a complaint with a court in California on May 19, accusing McCaleb of “fraudulent” and “negligent” misrepresentation of the exchange, which partially led to... The Bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox is finally allowing users to check their online wallet balances, nearly a month after its abrupt shut down.. Mt. Gox filed for bankruptcy after its collapse, arguing ... Give Me Bitcoin Bitcoin . Give Me Bitcoin . Mar 29, 2018 DTN Staff. twitter. pinterest. google plus. facebook. 25+ Answers - Someone I Don't Know Has Randomly Sent Me 18,500 Bitcoins. Is There A Way For Him To Chargeback? Should I Call The Cops? ... Bitcoin for Beginners is a subreddit for new users to ask Bitcoin related questions. **Do not respond to strangers direct messaging you, as over 99% of these people are Scammers.** This subreddit allows open discussion where peer review occurs. /r/BitcoinBeginners is not for posting new websites, memes, faucets, affiliate links, news, concern trolling, blog articles, or promoting altcoins and ...

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MtGox Bitcoins to BTC e Bitcoins in 50 seconds

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