Nassim Taleb: Almost All Bitcoiners Are ‘Total Idiots ...

The world economy is on the verge of crisis again, cryptocurrencies will be strong

Vulnerability refers to the property that things are vulnerable to damage when faced with fluctuations.
-Nassim Nicholas Taleb
In the face of economic fluctuations, it is disadvantageous to hold such a negative view. Every capital market has its own life cycle, which inevitably goes through a process from growth, to peak, and then to recession. Now is no exception. As we emerge from the longest bull market in history, we suddenly find ourselves in a highly vulnerable global economy facing the panicked and perplexed planet unprepared. However, the turmoil has just begun.
Newton's first law, also known as "the law of inertia", means that any object must maintain a constant linear motion or standstill until an external force forces it to change its state of motion. Although this analogy does not perfectly correspond to the capital market (because the market is always changing and developing in different directions), at least one thing is certain that under the action of the market mechanism, the market cycle always appears Trend from peak to valley.
The music box winds up, and the performance of the song sounds, and then it stops after a while. When this happens, the market structure collapses, eventually leading to huge chaos, and then falling into silence. Once external forces force the entire economy into trouble, people will realize the long-standing hidden structural defects in the economy.
Now, the world economy is on the verge of crisis again. All human beings have to face a sudden outbreak of a global epidemic and the resulting shocks in supply and demand in the market. The economies of some countries have stalled. Ironically, the effects of inertia may be prevalent in market fluctuations.
While witnessing the development of the global economy, we still find two simultaneous macro trends:
--1-- USD strong We believe that the strong US dollar is driven by three factors: Investors turn to safe assets: Despite the Fed ’s interest rate cuts and monetary stimulus policies, the market ’s increasing demand for the US dollar has pushed up the US dollar index and hit a new high in 18 years.
US Dollar Financing Issues: Cross-currency basis swaps measure that investors are more inclined to hold the US dollar than the euro or the yen.
On March 17, the euro-dollar basis swap swap premium expanded from -60 basis points to -120 basis points, the highest level since 2011. As of press time, the Euro-US dollar basis swap has rapidly dropped to about -27 basis points, while the US dollar-Japanese yen basis swap has expanded to -70 basis points. Negative basis points indicate greater pressure on the dollar and higher hedging costs for European and Japanese investors.
The reality is that U.S. banks, which are the main source of funding for the U.S. dollar, are storing large amounts of cash instead of actively issuing short-term U.S. dollar loans to foreign banks. Due to recent pressure from the balance sheet, more and more U.S. banks are beginning to reduce credit lines to retain cash. In addition, many foreign banks that lack direct access to the US dollar market can only rely on central bank liquidity swaps for financing. This week, the Fed and several other central banks opened new liquidity swap tools, providing USD 30 billion to USD 60 billion of liquidity, respectively, to ease pressure on USD financing.
Central banks in emerging market countries are taking urgent steps and lowering their benchmark interest rates: Emerging market investors are very worried about the stability of their currencies and are pouring into the dollar market. According to Bloomberg, all major emerging market currencies weakened against the US dollar on January 20, just as the new crown virus began to spread in Asia.
——2—— Treasury liquidity tightening Abnormally performing credit markets: In general, price fluctuations will prompt investors to switch from risky assets (such as stocks) to safe-haven assets (such as bonds). This was indeed the case when the new coronavirus was causing panic. However, the current despair of liquidity (especially cash) by market investors has led to a large-scale sell-off in the global bond market, falling bond prices and rising interest rates.
Repurchase market: The Federal Reserve's rescue measures have not brought the expected results. In the past week, the Federal Reserve announced three repurchases and other measures to release liquidity, hoping to ease the current state of the US Treasury market and reduce the inventory of primary dealers. However, market demand for government bonds remains sluggish.
Let's turn our eyes from the home of the macro economy to the cryptocurrency market. Although they are not necessarily related, we find that the two are closely related.
In the face of volatility, it is particularly important to develop a price action strategy. The CBOE-VIX index, an indicator that predicts the trend of the S & P 500 in the next 30 days, has surged to its highest level since the last global financial crisis. At the same time, we also saw that the 90-day implied volatility of Bitcoin options rose to 6.8% (annualized 130%), which is about 5.9% (annualized 113%) this weekend. As the "Black Thursday" on March 12th, BTC was down 40% and ETH was down 50%, some leveraged positions were forced to close. According to reports, BitMEX alone closed USD 700 million worth of long and short positions. At the same time, the sell-off of ETH dropped the value of the DeFi ecosystem by 40%. The total amount of collateral liquidation of Compound, dYdX and Maker and other lending platforms reached US $ 10 million. But in this turbulent market, not all assets perform so badly.
Although the price of BTC, like the stock market at the beginning, plummeted, falling by 60% from the high price in mid-February, it rebounded by about 50% from the price low on March 12. Over the past period, we have found a large amount of funds flowing from altcoins to BTC. With the spot premium (the spot price is higher than the futures price), the demand for bitcoin lending has increased. The effective fund interest rate also gradually returned to normal as the curve was inverted. In contrast, when futures are at a premium (the futures price is higher than the spot price), there is almost no demand for BTC's lending transactions. At present, the BTC funding rate on various lending platforms has increased from 3-5% to 8%, and the ETH funding rate has increased from 2-4% to 6%.
——3—— Floating profit stablecoin market Since February 14, the entire cryptocurrency market has experienced a large-scale sell-off, with a market value of $ 45 billion evaporated. At the same time, the market value of USDT has risen to nearly $ 5 billion. USDT has emerged from this market volatility and has become a safe-haven asset. This week, the premium rate of USDT prices in China and South Korea is as high as 7%, which is caused by the demand of payment service providers and arbitrage traders. The current over-the-counter USDT supply exceeds supply. At the same time, the market value of USDC climbed to US $ 630 million, a record high. The market value of BUSD is exceeding the US $ 150 million mark, mainly due to the surge in demand for Binance's borrowing and margin trading.
——4—— Near-term outlook We pay close attention to the changing macroeconomic trends and the successive monetary and fiscal policies implemented by governments around the world. Although we cannot predict the specific trend of the market, we still believe that cryptocurrency as an asset class will be strong. In a nutshell, we think:
● Due to the recent sell-off in the market, the value of positions has shrunk sharply, making the distribution of positions in the market clearer.
● With the exit of market makers, the spread between major exchanges has brought more market arbitrage opportunities for retail traders. In particular, the derivatives market (futures and perpetual swaps) has seen a significant discount compared to the spot market, which has pushed up BTC's lending rate.
● By hedging the spot and long futures, market participants can carry out arbitrage trading, which is completely contrary to the market situation we saw last year (the futures price is significantly higher than the spot).
● Over the past six months, trading activities in the options market have grown rapidly. We expect that trading activities in the options market will continue to grow.
● At present, on our platform, institutional clients such as hedge funds, arbitrage traders, crypto companies, etc. have all bought a lot of BTC and USDT.
Market volatility is part of investment. We believe that after a period of time, the economy will re-enter the upward trajectory, please let us work together for it.
submitted by FmzQuant to u/FmzQuant [link] [comments]

The Case for XRP in 2018

Cryptocurrencies have grown exponentially not only in price this past year but also in public awareness and popular attention. The novel feeling to an emerging financial and technological market is reminiscent of the rise of the Internet with its innovative potential. In turn, a heightened collective societal awareness of this new innovative potential has led to a change in the nature of the market dynamics of cryptocurrencies. As Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle posits, “The observation of a phenomenon changes the phenomena itself.” The observation of thousands of young millennials, and now middle-aged investors, will only accelerate the rise of cryptocurrencies as times goes on.
Today, we are seeing the real-world effects of a newfound intrigue into cryptocurrencies. This new interest is causing a narrowing of the divergence between truth and fiction over accurate knowledge about cryptocurrencies. The force drawing this gap narrower each day is an increased dissemination of truthful information that has generated legions of individual investors into new cryptocurrency markets; in particular, Ripple’s XRP.
As the public expands its understanding of Ripple’s XRP, the capital inflow from both individual and institutional investors combined will likely grow to levels that will exponentially grow the liquidity of XRP and, as a byproduct, its price.
Here, in this report, I will provide an overview and analysis of Ripple’s XRP and the implications Q4 2017 and the year 2018 and beyond hold for the future of XRP and its price.
THE CONCEPT: WHAT IS XRP?
XRP is the digital asset used by Ripple to offer financial institutions an option for liquidity to conduct cross-border payments. It is predominantly used for Ripple’s solution for the minimization of liquidity costs. In contrast to most other cryptocurrencies, XRP’s application here features a real-world applicability that extends to real-world transactions. It is used for the xRapid solution provided by Ripple, and is the only one of the three solutions Ripple offers (The others are xCurrent and xVia) that employs the use of XRP.
THE RATIONALE: WHY XRP?
There is a myriad of factors that distinguish XRP from other cryptocurrencies and establish it as a forerunner to what may become the dominant cryptocurrencies in the years that lie ahead.
Cost: Comparatively, XRP has the lowest cost per transaction at $0.0004. In contrast, BCH is $0.26, LTC is $0.37, DASH is $0.64, ETH is $0.96, and BTC is $28.23.
Scalability: XRP can handle over 1,500 transactions per second whereas BCH can handle 24 per second, LTC can handle 56 per second, DASH can handle 10 per second, ETH can handle 16 per second, and BTC can handle 24 per second.
Speed: XRP can conduct transactions at a rate of 3 seconds per transaction, BCH at a rate of 58 minutes per transaction, LTC at 17 minutes per transaction, DASH at 15 minutes per transaction, ETH at 2 minutes per transaction, and BTC 1 hour and 6 minutes per transaction.
XRP’s availability is ever-expanding. It is currently available on over 50 exchanges including Bitstamp, Bithumb, Bittrex, Binance, Bitfinex, Kraken, and Poloniex. The volume of XRP availability is, in addition, in an expansionary phase. The primary location of exchange volume is concentrated in Asia; in particular, South Korea. However, as mainstream media attention increases, so will American interest as well. There already have been tell-tale signs indicative in news outlets that have covered Ripple recently in the wake of XRP’s rise in CNBC, Bloomberg, Forbes, Investopedia, and Yahoo Finance.
Simply consider the mania generated by the media attention to Bitcoin. Repetitive news stories featured on CNBC, Bloomberg, CNN, CBS, and other mainstream media news outlets. Countless articles disparaging it as a bubble and hailing it as a force that could deconstruct the financial apparatus governed by the Federal Reserve and other central banks. Now, consider the results of media attention directed towards the substantive information behind XRP. Once news segments and articles are shown and written that illustrate the comparative superiority of XRP to other cryptocurrencies, then the viewers and readers will likely flock to XRP in pursuit of acquiring a tried, tested, and proven cryptocurrency with real-world usage.
In turn, a virtuous circle intensifying capital inflow to XRP is predictable and probably to occur. We can expect FOMO to rise and a number of oscillations up and down for the price to unfold. Nevertheless, the price of XRP is bound to not only remain but rather accelerate its demonstrated upwards price trajectory pushing us to new heights.
Additionally, if the collective fear among cryptocurrency investors materializes, that is, if new regulations are imposed on our activities, then Ripple is stand to likely gain. Dr. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a scholar and risk analyst writes about a concept called “Antifragility.” Antifragility is a term used to describe things that gain from disorder. Considering Ripple’s ties to financial institutions and regulators, it wouldn’t be too far-off to speculate that XRP is positioned to gain if such a black swan event were to occur.
FURTHER REASONS TO ADVANCE THE CASE FOR XRP:
Financial institutions, renown investors, and accomplished financiers have already taken notice of XRP. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has advocated on Ripple’s behalf. Zoe Cruz, former president for institutional securities and wealth management at Morgan Stanley and former global head of fixed income, commodities, and foreign exchange has joined Ripple’s Board of Directors. She has been named to Forbes list of Most Powerful Women for three years straight.
Perhaps most notably, a consortium of 61 banks – organized by SBI Ripple Asia – will be adopting Ripple’s technology to settle transactions between its members with the eventual goal of applying XRP to usage. Mr. Yoshitaka Kitao, the CEO, Executive Chairman, and President has publicly stated, “Forget about bitcoin, we’re all in on XRP!” In fact, SBI has already confirmed that XRP will be put in usage in Spring 2018. If successful, expect the price to reflect it.
Moreover, TechCrunch Founder Michael Arrington has, as of November 2017, announced a $100 million XRP hedge fund. His efforts have already raised $50 million which will engender a ripple effect of new large net-worth individual and institutional investors. The entity will be called Arrington XRP Capital and new information about its activities are set to be released in the months that lie ahead.
Also, David Schwartz, Ripple’s Chief Cryptographer, has said that there are two major “household” companies (Not financial institutions) that will be announced in Q4. This is likely to provide a substantial boon to XRP.
Finally, the Chief Technology Officer of Ripple, Stefan Thomas, has said that in 2018 there will be a “big push on XRP.” For years, Ripple has kept a relative silence in expressing the superiority of XRP. 2018 will be different. 2018 is bound to be Ripple’s year. I expect the price to rise as high as $10 and as low as $4.
At any rate, this report only scratches the surface of Ripple and XRP’s potential. For far more nuanced and in-depth analysis and information, I suggest reading from Ripple firsthand at www.ripple.com and perusing the best blog on XRP itself at https://xrphodor.wordpress.com/
To the moon, we go.
SOURCE: https://cellardoorway.com/2017/12/24/the-case-for-ripples-xrp-a-brief-overview/
submitted by OttoVonBismarck- to Ripple [link] [comments]

Why I'm all in on BNB and maybe not crazy

You may remember my post a few weeks back: Yes, You Should Buy Some BNB.
At that time, BNB had just started holding above 0.0019-20 BTC, a level it failed to hold three times. The timing was not the primary reason for investing, but it made the decision urgent. The price subsequently rose to roughly 0.0026 BTC and now appears to be settling into a floor around 0.0020-21. They say resistance becomes support, ceilings become floors. Historically for BNB, the downtrend normally ends before hitting the former ceilings. If there was ever a time to of all in, I think now is it… so I did.
Figured this would be a good time to dive a bit deeper on why I’m so ultra bullish on BNB.
Charisma - Binance feels deeply charismatic to me. It’s a word I didn’t think of in investing until this Peter Thiel interview. Binance strikes me as especially charismatic. Investors largely love Binance as a product and as a company. A lot of this charisma comes from the trust people have in Binance. CZ recently spoke about how Binance now has a “2-hour rule” which is where they update the community every two hours. You may not have known about this exact rule, but you probably have felt it and you certainly have read CZ now-famous “funds are safe.” This expression is so pervasive that you see people racing to comment with it. Bizonaci made this masterpiece which introduced the spelling “safu,” or as CZ recently said Binance is the “safust.” I mean shit, look how calm things were with BNB after after an unexpected SYStem wide freeze. The market stayed calm and BNB is the largest exchange… Let me repeat, Binance—the world’s largest exchange of trustless assets—had to emergency halt trading and the entire market is NBD… The morning after, Jackson Palmer tweeted this sentiment summary, Sherman Lee posted this beautiful piece in Forbes, and Binance announced S.A.F.U. as an official part of their commitment to protect investors.
Antifragile - Antifragile is a concept Nassim Taleb coined to describe things that get stronger with stress. Binance seems to strengthen with bad news. When China last banned exchanges, Binance up and moved to Malta and the price soared. Now Binance is in three countries/jurisdictions and probably entering more. These emerging crypto hubs are competing for epic tax revenues, especially relative to their size. If the EU were to push Malta for more regulation, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Malta leave the EU. After all, is Malta better off with Binance, EOS, et al or with the EU? The latter may still be true but it’s increasingly less clear cut. This puts it in a position of incredible strength when it comes to negotiation, staying automomous, and gaining the government cooperation to build financial bridges across the world. In short, I see Binance as having a real shot as delivering on it’s mission of financial freedom. Exchange the world.
Adoption - BNB is rapidly gaining adoption. In the past few months, we’ve seen small exchanges list BNB. In the last week, this pace has increased dramatically as Bitmex and Metamask have joined the BNB party. YouTubers and the Twitter sphere seem to be talking about BNB more frequently. The $1B impact fund is to be denominated in BNB and a team member noted in the recent Binance Labs AMA that partners will be able to accept payments in BNB. New coins have already been paying Binance humungo checks to gain access to Binance’s user base; if Binance pulls of Binance Chain DEX (powered by BNB), they’re going to compete at the ERC20 level for the ICO market, at least to some extent. It’s still unclear what Binance Chain will look like, but the support volume is definitely more compelling than other DEXes would be launching with. ICOs numbers are holding strong and Binance continues to be the most attractive place to list. Moreover, with the recent investment ChiliZ, founded by Alexander Dreyfus (founder of e-gaming companies), Binance has demonstrated an interest in the broader speculation market, which basically is crypto right now… and Binance hasn’t even introduced options/futures…
Team - The Binance team seems truly world class to me. A good chunk of my last post was about the team (and CZ’s fly-af shorts), but one thing I did not say last time was the value of CZ’s cult-leadership. Don’t get me wrong, I consider this a double edged sword much like ETH and nearly every coin but BTC has. But on the positive edge, this gives Binance an incredible edge when it comes to execution, recruiting, and a ultimately achieving their vision. You can feel the team support for CZ; you can see it in this video and in Binance’s recent staff re-tweet. I also think not enough of my last post was about the community manager(s) who I feel are killing it compared to other subreddit mods.
Market - IMO the market will mostly bounce around/move sideways for some time and Binance will make money either way. There may be big moves up but I expect them to be met with significant resistance. Technical analysis is a major driver of price action in crypto specifically because most coins/token have no underlying value (i.e. it is largely emotional responses). As such, alts will continue to have trading value even if they lose a lot of expectation-based value. After all, look how many alts recently went up 20-30%. Get rich quick sentiment has not dried up nearly to the degree some people say. Maybe I’m following the wrong people, but I haven’t seen anyone talk about Bitcoin being “dead”—only people talking about people talking about it being dead. Do you really think Tron and IOTA will die any day now? No, you don’t. The FOMO and FUD are real and the firepowereserve capital many alts have is massive. If a mostly sideways market plays out, then profit chasing will increasingly turn to algo trading, which Binance is well positioned for. In a recent interview, CZ mentioned Binance is planning to expand it’s capacity by 100-1,000x to prepare for a massive increase in usage, and he said it before the algo traders temporarily broke Binance’s API… Okay, but let’s say it’s not like this, let’s say there’s a major breakdown in alts much sooner (maybe everyone realizes Lightning makes a XRP useless). In this case, I expect Convert-to-BNB to do quite well given how many alts are on Binance (especially those who paid to show up because they were so shitty they couldn’t get the crowd to vote for them). Moreover, if you’re losing your life savings and BNB continues to grow, many investors are going to try to an dig themselves out of a hole by selling for BNB. Either way, BNB probably has a bright future.
Q3 - Right now, BNB is performing poorly because of the sell the news paradigm crypto seems to operate under. But at about this time last quarter BNB was at peak BTC and ETH value. Compared to last quarter, we’re two weeks ahead, which would make this bottom somewhere between yesterday and next weekend. The growth during the last quarter was also sharper than this quarter, suggesting less to fall, and I suspect the hype train is going to be larger this cycle as rumors of the DEX become more imminent. There’s also extra worry this quarter because the market assumes Binance’s profit will be lower and the second year discount will be lowered (50% BNB discount —> 25% off with BNB discount). I sense that these fears are already priced in. For starters, Binance hasn’t shot up directly after the great quarterly news; why would it shoot down on bad news, especially if it is expected? Regarding the discount, 25% is still better than 0% off, so people should keep using it (especially if the BNB they’re holding is appreciating), and for the next year, Binance should be making 50% more profit (before they made 0.05%, now they will make 0.075% profit). I believe the sentiment on this concern is oversold when the math appears way better to me.
Concerns - With all this in mind, I do still have a few concerns. For instance, what do Binance founders/team plan to do with their 100M coins as the BNB supply approaches 100M supply? Will they sell a-la Charlie Lee or will their sell-off be more pre-meditated a la Ripple’s 55mo escrow release? In theory as the price of BNB rises, it will take longer for the supply to get to 100M so this question could be a ways off, but I still would prefer clarity over this (even if it relies on trust). There’s some sentiment concern that the 1/5 vesting coming up will cause a large sell off. I assume inside folk see world-dominating growth ahead given the recent all-star Binance Labs hires, but still would be nice to understand this risk better. Finally, perhaps my largest concern is will Binance have an EOS moment with the freezing functionality laid out in the DEX competition requirements? I can certainly envision a decentralized use and Binance has demonstrated doing the right thing when they take emergency action, but I want to share the concern nevertheless.
Deflationary - One concern I do not have with with BNB but recognize others do is about the utility of BNB after the discount goes to 0. Binance says BNB will be used as gas in the eventual Binance Chain DEX. This gives it utility, and unlike other blockchains, Binance already has usage demand. So, if you think any altcoin has value, then BNB—at the DEX stage and without a discount—has value. Beyond dominating trading utility (a huge industry use case), BNB has a decent store of value argument (the other huge industry use case). Unlike most coins/token have unreleased supply for inflation, fees, etc., BNB supply is already fully diluted. While BTC expands its supply for some time to come, BNB will be lowering its supply through the burn. Sure, people lose BTC which is a deflationary force, but I suspect this will become less common as wallet tech improves and the industry matures. To be clear, I don’t think BNB and BTC are otherwise comparable and I don’t think BNB (or any coin/token) will replace BTC. But, BTC has demonstrated that investors want stores of value, so whether your thesis is high usage will appreciate or store of value will appreciate, BNB checks both boxes.
submitted by ohitsthatguygreat to BinanceExchange [link] [comments]

Bernanke never said that "Bitcoin may hold long-term promise", and other bitcoin quotes corrected with sources

During the course of my research, I made a collection of Bitcoin quotes that I could use in different publications.
Many "famous people bitcoin quotes" are false, misquoted and without sources. Using those quotes is bad for everyone.
The first, and most horribly fasle quote, is Bernanke's famous quote: "Bitoin may hold long-term promise, particularly if the innovations promote a faster, more secure and more efficient payment system.”
1) The quote is actually from Alan Blinder
2) The quote is from 1995
3) The quote has nothing to do with Bitcoin
This is the full quote:
Dear Senators: Thank you for your recent inquiry regarding virtual currencies. As you noted, virtual currencies have been receiving increased attention from U.S. authorities over the past several months.
Historically, virtual currencies have been viewed as a form of “electronic money” or area of payment system technology that has been evolving over the past 20 years. Over time, these types of innovations have received attention from Congress as well as U.S. regulators. For example, in 1995, the U.S. House of Representatives held hearings on “the future of money” at which early versions of virtual currencies and other innovations were discussed. Vice Chairman Alan Blinder’s testimony at that time made the key point that while these types of innovations may pose risks related to law enforcement and supervisory matters, there are also areas in which they may hold long-term promise, particularly if the innovations promote a faster, more secure and more efficient payment system.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/ben-bernanke-on-bitcoin-2013-11#ixzz2qgGXCYKk
I know some of you already know that this quote is badly cited, but believe me it is being used by every journalist and "expert" out there (google Bernanke bitcoin quote, you'll se that I'm right).
EDIT: Bernanke is not paraphrasing Blinder in order to support a positive / negative opinion of Bitcoin. He quotes Blinder in the introduction of his letter as a way to show that monetary innovations was already a topic of interest back in 1995
There was another post with Bitcoin quotes from famous people here: http://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/1ohza2/quotes_about_bitcoin_from_famous_people/
Many of these quotes were misquoted, false or without references. I took the liberty to create a legit quotes list with sources:
"I think Bitcoin is a techno tour de force." - Bill Gates, Founder of Microsoft Fox News, May 6, 2013 Original source: http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/2359385547001/
“I gave a talk back in November of ‘99 on […] how encrypted money was going to change the world. I do think bitcoin is the first one of these that has the potential to do something like that. - Peter Thiel, Co-Founder of Paypal. Secondary source: http://www.appstorechronicle.com/2013/11/exclusive-peter-thiel-bitcoin.html#ixzz2pdIR3w8w
“It’s fascinating to watch what’s happened with Bitcoin. Congress has just been spending a week looking at it, they might bring some regulations, but I just hope that it will not stifle innovations of new tech novalties like Bitcoin” Sir Richard Branson, Novembre 22th 2013 Original source: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000220731
“I think the fact that within the Bitcoin universe an algorithm replaces the functions of [the government] … is actually pretty cool” Al Gore, former US vice president and winner of the Nobel Peace prize Secondary source: http://www.pymnts.com/briefing-room/commerce-3-0/the-innovation-project-2013/al-gore-speaks-on-mobile-money-and-the-global-mind/
“Virtual currency systems, so long as they comply with applicable anti money-laundering and money transmission laws and regulations are not inherently illegal and they can be appealing to consumers because they can provide cheap, efficient and convenient means to transfer currency.” Mythili Raman of the Department of Justice Criminal Division Original source: http://online.wsj.com/article/65405E2A-CD8B-4B70-B8DD-9E7A19D05A61.html#!65405E2A-CD8B-4B70-B8DD-9E7A19D05A61
“Bitcoin is the most important invention in the history of the world since the internet. Roger Ver, CEO of MemoryDealers.com Original source: http://rogerver.com
“Three eras of currency: Commodity based, e.g. Gold., Politically based, e.g. Dollar, Math based, e.g. Bitcoin” Chris Dixon, Personal investor in technology startups Original source: http://nonchalantrepreneur.com/post/46485623457/three-eras-of-currency
"Bitcoin is the beginning of something great: a currency without a government, something necessary and imperative.” - Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Ph.D statistician, author, and advisor to the IMF Original source: http://nassimtaleb.org/tag/bitcoin/
"Bitcoin is going to be a big player in the future of the exchange of goods and services" Jennifer Shasky Calvery, the director of the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network Original source: http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/DigitalCu
“The decision to bring virtual currency within the scope of our regulatory framework should be viewed by those who respect and obey the basic rule of law as a positive development for this sector. It recognizes the innovation virtual currencies provide, and the benefits they might offer society,” Jennifer Shasky Calvery, the director of the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network. Original source: http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/DigitalCu
"A number of smart people both inside and outside of government view bitcoin as a major emerging issue that is deserving of our attention" - Senator Tom Carper (D) Original source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x8Y71IXEK8w
“It [Bitcoin] is a huge, huge, huge deal […] it is gold 2.0” - Chamath Palihapitiya, venture capitalist and former Facebook executive Original source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=59uTUpO8Dzw&feature=youtu.be&t=19m14s
"Bitcoin may be the TCP/IP of money." - Paul Buchheit, Creator of Gmail https://twitter.com/paultoo/status/328969714283995136
“We have elected to put our money and faith in a mathematical framework that is free of politics and human error.” - Tyler Winklevoss, Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust Original source: http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/winklevosses-turn-bitcoin-turmoil/story?id=18941399
submitted by FrancisPouliot to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

3-flag RBF (which includes FSS-RBF) would have been safer than 2-flag RBF (with no FSS-RBF). RBF-with-no-FSS has already been user-tested - and rejected in favor of FSS-RBF. So, why did Peter Todd give us 2-flag RBF with no FSS-RBF? Another case of Core ignoring user requirements and testing?

TL;DR:
Here are your Artificially Limited!TM "options" under Peter Todd's "Opt-In Full RBF":
0 - Original / "classic" version of Bitcoin (where the transaction is not replaceable).
1 - FSS-RBF (where your txn is replaceable by a later txn only if using the same outputs, just with a higher miner fee).
2 - Full-RBF (where your txn is replaceable by any other double-spending transaction).
Yeah. Peter did all that work and gave us the middle finger by not giving us that simpler & safer middle option.
Once again Peter Todd / Core appears to be ignoring user requirements and testing, by giving us a more-complicated and more-dangerous feature that has already been tested and rejected (Full RBF - where the sender can arbitrarily double-spend any outputs) - and omitting a simpler and safer feature which users have favored (FSS-RBF - where the sender can only resend the same the transaction using the same outputs, now with a higher miners fee).
If Peter Todd had given us "3-flag RBF" (which includes FSS-RBF) then this would have been safer than the 2-flag RBF he actually gave us (which does not include FSS-RBF).
Feter Todd had already implemented a form of RBF which was field-tested and rejected in the first few hours due to an outcry from users (F2Pool), and replaced with the safer FSS-RBF:
Peter Todd talked F2Pool (Chun Wang) into implementing his RBF patch. A few hours later Chun realises want a terrible idea that was and switches to FSS RBF (safe version of RBF).
https://np.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/3aenx0/avoid_f2pool_they_are_incompetent_reckless_and/?ref=search_posts
With Opt-In Full RBF, Core appears to be once again ignoring user requirements and testing, by giving us a more-complicated and more-dangerous feature that has already been tested and rejected by users, who clearly preferred FSS-RBF.
  • 3-flag RBF (which includes FSS-RBF) would have been the safer form of RBF (0 = no RBF, 1 = FSS-RBF, 2 = Full RBF).
  • So, why did Peter Todd give us the more-complicated and more-dangerous 2-flag form of RBF (0 = no RBF, 2 = Full RBF ... omitting the simpler & safer "FSS-RBF" option) even after the more-complicated and more-dangersous version had been field-tested and rejected (within hours) by F2Pool, which ended up going back and implementing the safer form?
RBF supporters are wrong or lying about what "problem" RBF is supposed to "solve"
RBF supporters claim they just "want to allow the sender increase the fee on a txn that's not getting mined."
They're either wrong, or outright lying, because we've already gotten two proposals for better (simpler and safer) solutions for stuck transactions:
(1) If RBF supporters had really wanted to just help solve this "stuck transaction" problem, then the simpler and safer form of RBF (which would be totally sufficient to achieve the above) would have been FSS-RBF - not (Opt-In) Full RBF.
(2) Or even "more" safer and simpler: just impose a "transaction timeout" - after say 72 hours, a stuck txn (which no miners have been mining) simply gets dropped from the mempool. More below on this proposed transaction timeout:
RBF is being sold as a lie. A true Trojan Horse. We are being told that it was created to solve the stuck transaction problem but that is a lie.
In a recent exchange with an RBF apologist he admits that there is already a clean and simple fix for stuck transactions.
Another patch by Garzik introduces a 72 hour timeout for stuck transactions. This is the correct and clean fix. If you were so boneheaded that you sent a high value transaction without a proper fee then a 72 hour penalty seems perfectly reasonable.
What is not reasonable is using stuck transactions as an excuse to Trojan horse in a fee market system that turns the bitcoin blockchain into an auction house.
jratcliff63367
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/3uqpap/rbf_has_nothing_to_do_with_fixing_stuck/?ref=search_posts
The "leading" supporters / apologists for RBF (eg, nullc Gregory Maxwell) are probably smart enough to know that those other simpler & safer solutions are indeed out there - so it does make sense to assume possible bad faith on their part here, and assume that they're not merely "wrong" - they're actually lying.
From the KISS principle to Nassim Taleb, everyone agrees: Simpler is better
FSS-RBF (First-Seen-Safe RBF) is the safer and simpler form of RBF where the sender can increase the fee for only the same outputs/UTXOs.
It solves the "stuck transaction" problem without introducing any other new complexities (and potential vulnerabilities) to the system.
There was a post on the front page today from Nassim Taleb talking about this simplicity concept in general: that a solution should be at least as simple as the problem that it intends to solve.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb: "Solutions need to be at least as simple as the problem they solve. (Anything else brings multiplicative unintended side effects.) #FatTails"
https://np.reddit.com/bitcoinxt/comments/3whz3c/nassim_nicholas_taleb_solutions_need_to_be_at/?ref=search_posts
So... Why didn't Peter Todd give us the simpler and safer solution **FSS-RBF".
  • Why did he instead give us the more-complicated and more-dangerous (Opt-In) Full RBF?
  • Don't be fooled by the "Opt-In" part. That's just the part where he lets you turn "Full RBF" off or on for any given transaction.
  • There's already been some shadiness already as to whether this should "opt-in" or really "opt-out".
    • A few days after Peter Todd's "Opt-In RBF" got merged into the github repo, another Pull Request (PR) came up, to change it from "Opt-In" to "Opt-Out" (ie, "On-by-Default") - but Gregory Maxwell quietly closed that Pull Request (PR).
    • There are posts on-line from RBF supporters who say that the real plan is to quietly migrate from Opt-In Full RBF to On-By-Default (Opt-Out) Full RBF, eg:
opt-in RBF -> 2-4-8 -> opt-in RBF with wallets opting in by default -> LN -> full RBF
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/3uw2ff/quotes_show_that_rbf_is_part_of_coreblockstreams/?ref=search_posts
We need to learn that the only consensus that matters is among us, the users.
And the devs need to learn to listen and respond to what the users are saying, instead of ignoring us.
PS - We don't need to speak C/C++ in order to communicate our requirements to the devs. Any dev who cannot understand and intelligently respond to the following English-language user-requirements specification should GTFO:
0 - Original / "classic" version of Bitcoin (where the transaction is not replaceable).
1 - FSS-RBF (where your txn is replaceable by a later txn only if using the same outputs, just with a higher miner fee).
2 - Full-RBF (where your txn is replaceable by any other double-spending transaction).
Question for petertodd
(1) Why did your first draft release of this "feature" fail to implement the above simpler and safer specification?
Bonus question for petertodd
(2) You've already implemented an RBF feature, at your suggestion, for F2Pool.
You implemented your more-complicated, more-dangerous Full RBF - and after few hours of community outcry, it was removed, and F2Pool re-implemented it the simpler safer way: with FSS RBF.
What did you learn from this experience with the users?
Inspired by:
Why don't go the safe way? RBF would allow double spending attacks. It would be much better if a transaction in mempool can only be replaced by a new one if the transaction outputs are the same as in the original transaction (FSS-RBF). So you cannot replace it by a completely different transaction and you cannot double-spend.
Maybe it would be nice to mark the initial transaction by either one of three flags:
  • Old transaction version (non replaceable).
  • FSS-RBF (replaceable by a similar transaction with higher miner fee).
  • Full-RBF (replaceable by any other double-spending transaction).
As a merchant you could safely accept 2 but not 3. I don't see any good reasons why one would favor 3 over 2.
https://np.reddit.com/btc/comments/3wlxr5/i_cant_believe_im_saying_this_but_luke_jr_is/cxxdu14
nomailing
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The anti-fragility of Bitcoin: why Bitcoin refuses to die according to Nassim Taleb and Jimmy Song.

This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 93%. (I'm a bot)
Protocol level attacks led to developers fixing problems such as transaction malleability, DoS attacks have led to a more expensive to use Bitcoin, which subsequently led to the development of the Lightning Network, and Hard Forks have allowed the community to experiment with different versions of Bitcoin to choose the best.
Any successes will boost the value of Bitcoin, which grants Bitcoin an option-like quality, as articulated in this article by Steven Mckie.
Bitcoin investors have found that, even if a very significant player in the crypto-sphere moves to ban Bitcoin, the effect will be short lived as exchanges and user move to more favorable jurisdictions.
Finally, Bitcoin has exhibited antifragility towards irrational exuberance.
Hard core HODLers could see the price of Bitcoin fall below $1,000 and most won't sell, as they have faith in the long-term possibilities of BTC. Social Antifragility.
The first disordering event anyone who joins the Bitcoin community has to face is the fear, uncertainty, and doubt attack, a.k.a as bitcoin is a tulip attack.
Summary Source | FAQ | Feedback | Top keywords: Bitcoin#1 more#2 attack#3 time#4 eXchange#5
Post found in /Bitcoin, /Economics, /austrian_economics, /reddCoin, /BitcoinAll, /btc, /Libertarian and /CryptoCurrency.
NOTICE: This thread is for discussing the submission topic. Please do not discuss the concept of the autotldr bot here.
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The future of Bitcoin perceived by French

As Bitcoin has experienced ups and downs in recent days, we waited for a lull to offer a new press review on the digital currency that shook global banking institutions. The Bitcoin is currently at 875 USD against 1087 USD on November 29.
Corner Cassandras:
" Did you know? Bitcoin will disappear ... « (Reflets.info)
" It is therefore quite logical to infer that when central banks hiss the end of the recess, the Bitcoin become overnight» inconvertible ". In other words, those who will hold their eyes to cry. At best, they can continue to play the market by deciding them that their money is for their trade. But it will be in inconvertible currencies other traditional. "
Reviewed by E & D Reflets.info should learn that the predictions are almost all false , as well Nassim Taleb demonstrated Nicolas in Black Swan . Bitcoin is a black swan, nobody saw it coming, and certainly not Reflets.info. Nothing can stop people to exchange Bitcoin against the euro, platforms already exist for it.
«Apple depreciates the Bitcoin on the App Store" (Igen)
IM Glyph [1.85 - U.S. - Free - Glyph, Inc.] is no longer possible to send Bitcoin. Apple has asked its developers to remove this function if they still wanted to see included their application on the App Store. What they did with bitterness as they explain in a long post an update on Apple's policy about Bitcoin. "
Reviewed by E & D: no wonder that behemoth like Apple is not leading in the Bitcoin is rather to his challengers to compete through the use of this money ... In any case Google uses instant Bitcoin : "Google is just the opposite . Google Play hosts many applications capable of generating Bitcoin and exchange. «Bitcoin is a technological achievement. But I do not know if in the end it will be legal, "said Eric Schmidt, the executive chairman of Google. Until its legality or illegality is it’s engraved in the legislation, the Mountain View Company therefore authorizes its use. On the App Store, do not expect that the Bitcoin one day become commonplace. "
" The Bank of France is the Bitcoin pieces « (Liberation)
"This is the price of success: booming virtual currencies now attracting the attention of very serious financial institutions. And judgment may be severe. This Thursday is the Bank of France who spends a note to the "dangers" associated with the largest of these digital currencies, the Bitcoin. Verdict: it «has little or no interest for use by economic actors, beyond the marketing and advertising aspects, while exposing them to significant risk «. »
Reviewed by E & D recall that the Bank of France offers its employees the 15th month, on public money. They are therefore best placed to lecture ...
The most optimistic:
" But why the Chinese are crazy about Bitcoin? » (The Tribune)
" The Bitcoin a huge success with Chinese speculators, which exacerbate the volatility of virtual currency and seem hardly deterred by the recent warning from the authorities. [...] A perspective that does not seem to deter Chinese investors, for whom the alternatives are few: restrictions on property purchases are increasingly strict, Chinese Scholarships generate only meager profits and banks offering laughable interest rates, while the authorities closely monitor capital flows out of China. "
And balanced :
" Bitcoin : Chinese investors resist their central bank" (BFM TV)
" The Bitcoin traded at more than 900 dollars, Tuesday, Dec. 10 , after a fall of 30% of its value at the end of the week. Some companies have decided to refuse the money, but investors are not discouraged. [...] The Chinese became the first buyers of the currency, which eliminates the need for the banking system, monitored by the government. In October, boosted by purchases from China, the price of the currency had risen from 200 USD to 1,000 USD. But the anonymity of users might not last: the central bank also announced plans for mandatory identification of buyers BTC China, the world's most popular trading platform. "
" Leweb13: what future for Bitcoin and virtual currencies? » ( BFMTV / LeWeb )
" A few months still only insiders had heard of Bitcoin. Virtual currency now has its marketplaces and e- shops where to buy real products. The phenomenon is so widespread that the Bank of France has split it a few days ago a note, calling Bitcoin «some financial risk." Pierre Noizat , specialist that currency and author of «Bitcoin book," meanwhile sees an "alternative to the monopoly of Visa and MasterCard '," a militant act «. "
" The banned Bitcoin Baidu loses 54 % of its value " ( Forex Agony )
" This fall is a new 100% both related to a fundamental phenomenon , the giant Baidu, one of the engines of the most popular search in China and is also side Nasdaq announced that it prohibited the average payment Bitcoin . [...] When one looks at the historical chart of Bitcoin one realizes that despite price falls that may seem dramatic course of Bitcoin has always surpass these events and is clearly upward trend by creating successively new highs. "
submitted by questone1 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Nassim Nicholas Taleb vs David Birch on The Bitcoin Standard - Bitcoin News The Lindy Effect Explained in One Minute: From Albert ... The Antifragility of Bitcoin Why Nassim Taleb is still betting on crypto - YouTube CVM  Nassim Taleb on Bitcoin

Bitcoin is an excellent idea that fulfills the needs of the complex system, not because it is a cryptocurrency, but precisely because it has no owner, no authority that can decide on its fate, writes the famous essayist, scholar, and risk analyst ... Nassim Taleb, university prof and writer of Black Swan, conceives Bitcoin is a good idea but most investors can’t understand its nuances. Nassim Taleb, writer of “Skin in the Game, ” got into a small Twitter duel in which he explained that most investors can’t understand the subtleties of a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin.According to a tweet announced by Nassim Taleb on June 21, Bitcoin ... Nassim Taleb “Bitcoin is the beginning of something great: a currency without a government, something necessary and imperative.” Peter Diamandis "Bitcoin is a smart currency, designed by very forward-thinking engineers. It eliminates the need for banks, gets rid of credit card fees, currency exchange fees, money transfer fees, and reduces ... Bitcoin (BTC) for Lebanon. Mr. Taleb is one of the most prominent advocates of Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrency financial institutions. He believes it could replace classical remittance and exchange tools in emerging economies. Six months ago, when banks in Lebanon closed, he highlighted their 'legal crook' approach in difficult situations. The philosopher and author of the cult work “Black Swan” Nassim Taleb closed his account on the American bitcoin exchange Coinbase. He complained that his support request was ignored. Related: Study: Coinbase users buy altcoins after buying Bitcoin. I closed the @coinbase account (opened a few months ago). Like Must, they answered me (blue ...

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb vs David Birch on The Bitcoin Standard - Bitcoin News

Peter Warren er en pionèr innenfor finanssektoren i Norge og har over 30 års erfaring som trader innenfor råvarer, metaller, valuta, aksjer og renter. Han startet det norske markedet for ... Nassim Nicholas Taleb in an interaction with Ami Shah of ETMarkets.com on the sidelines of Times Network India Economic Conclave talks about what makes him b... Nassim Nicholas Taleb vs David Birch on The Bitcoin Standard - Bitcoin News Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency and worldwide payment system. It is the first decentralized digital currency, as the system ... This video is unavailable. Watch Queue Queue. Watch Queue Queue Queue Naseem Nicholas Taleb, one of the world's most famous philosophers who predicted the economic downturn of the year 2008, said the value of Cryptocurrency Bitcoin could reach $ 100 million, or ...

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