Bitcoin Halving 2020: Will it unleash the bulls? by ...

Ultimate glossary of crypto currency terms, acronyms and abbreviations

I thought it would be really cool to have an ultimate guide for those new to crypto currencies and the terms used. I made this mostly for beginner’s and veterans alike. I’m not sure how much use you will get out of this. Stuff gets lost on Reddit quite easily so I hope this finds its way to you. Included in this list, I have included most of the terms used in crypto-communities. I have compiled this list from a multitude of sources. The list is in alphabetical order and may include some words/terms not exclusive to the crypto world but may be helpful regardless.
2FA
Two factor authentication. I highly advise that you use it.
51% Attack:
A situation where a single malicious individual or group gains control of more than half of a cryptocurrency network’s computing power. Theoretically, it could allow perpetrators to manipulate the system and spend the same coin multiple times, stop other users from completing blocks and make conflicting transactions to a chain that could harm the network.
Address (or Addy):
A unique string of numbers and letters (both upper and lower case) used to send, receive or store cryptocurrency on the network. It is also the public key in a pair of keys needed to sign a digital transaction. Addresses can be shared publicly as a text or in the form of a scannable QR code. They differ between cryptocurrencies. You can’t send Bitcoin to an Ethereum address, for example.
Altcoin (alternative coin): Any digital currency other than Bitcoin. These other currencies are alternatives to Bitcoin regarding features and functionalities (e.g. faster confirmation time, lower price, improved mining algorithm, higher total coin supply). There are hundreds of altcoins, including Ether, Ripple, Litecoin and many many others.
AIRDROP:
An event where the investors/participants are able to receive free tokens or coins into their digital wallet.
AML: Defines Anti-Money Laundering laws**.**
ARBITRAGE:
Getting risk-free profits by trading (simultaneous buying and selling of the cryptocurrency) on two different exchanges which have different prices for the same asset.
Ashdraked:
Being Ashdraked is essentially a more detailed version of being Zhoutonged. It is when you lose all of your invested capital, but you do so specifically by shorting Bitcoin. The expression “Ashdraked” comes from a story of a Romanian cryptocurrency investor who insisted upon shorting BTC, as he had done so successfully in the past. When the price of BTC rose from USD 300 to USD 500, the Romanian investor lost all of his money.
ATH (All Time High):
The highest price ever achieved by a cryptocurrency in its entire history. Alternatively, ATL is all time low
Bearish:
A tendency of prices to fall; a pessimistic expectation that the value of a coin is going to drop.
Bear trap:
A manipulation of a stock or commodity by investors.
Bitcoin:
The very first, and the highest ever valued, mass-market open source and decentralized cryptocurrency and digital payment system that runs on a worldwide peer to peer network. It operates independently of any centralized authorities
Bitconnect:
One of the biggest scams in the crypto world. it was made popular in the meme world by screaming idiot Carlos Matos, who infamously proclaimed," hey hey heeeey” and “what's a what's a what's up wasssssssssuuuuuuuuuuuuup, BitConneeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeect!”. He is now in the mentally ill meme hall of fame.
Block:
A package of permanently recorded data about transactions occurring every time period (typically about 10 minutes) on the blockchain network. Once a record has been completed and verified, it goes into a blockchain and gives way to the next block. Each block also contains a complex mathematical puzzle with a unique answer, without which new blocks can’t be added to the chain.
Blockchain:
An unchangeable digital record of all transactions ever made in a particular cryptocurrency and shared across thousands of computers worldwide. It has no central authority governing it. Records, or blocks, are chained to each other using a cryptographic signature. They are stored publicly and chronologically, from the genesis block to the latest block, hence the term blockchain. Anyone can have access to the database and yet it remains incredibly difficult to hack.
Bullish:
A tendency of prices to rise; an optimistic expectation that a specific cryptocurrency will do well and its value is going to increase.
BTFD:
Buy the fucking dip. This advise was bestowed upon us by the gods themselves. It is the iron code to crypto enthusiasts.
Bull market:
A market that Cryptos are going up.
Consensus:
An agreement among blockchain participants on the validity of data. Consensus is reached when the majority of nodes on the network verify that the transaction is 100% valid.
Crypto bubble:
The instability of cryptocurrencies in terms of price value
Cryptocurrency:
A type of digital currency, secured by strong computer code (cryptography), that operates independently of any middlemen or central authoritie
Cryptography:
The art of converting sensitive data into a format unreadable for unauthorized users, which when decoded would result in a meaningful statement.
Cryptojacking:
The use of someone else’s device and profiting from its computational power to mine cryptocurrency without their knowledge and consent.
Crypto-Valhalla:
When HODLers(holders) eventually cash out they go to a place called crypto-Valhalla. The strong will be separated from the weak and the strong will then be given lambos.
DAO:
Decentralized Autonomous Organizations. It defines A blockchain technology inspired organization or corporation that exists and operates without human intervention.
Dapp (decentralized application):
An open-source application that runs and stores its data on a blockchain network (instead of a central server) to prevent a single failure point. This software is not controlled by the single body – information comes from people providing other people with data or computing power.
Decentralized:
A system with no fundamental control authority that governs the network. Instead, it is jointly managed by all users to the system.
Desktop wallet:
A wallet that stores the private keys on your computer, which allow the spending and management of your bitcoins.
DILDO:
Long red or green candles. This is a crypto signal that tells you that it is not favorable to trade at the moment. Found on candlestick charts.
Digital Signature:
An encrypted digital code attached to an electronic document to prove that the sender is who they say they are and confirm that a transaction is valid and should be accepted by the network.
Double Spending:
An attack on the blockchain where a malicious user manipulates the network by sending digital money to two different recipients at exactly the same time.
DYOR:
Means do your own research.
Encryption:
Converting data into code to protect it from unauthorized access, so that only the intended recipient(s) can decode it.
Eskrow:
the practice of having a third party act as an intermediary in a transaction. This third party holds the funds on and sends them off when the transaction is completed.
Ethereum:
Ethereum is an open source, public, blockchain-based platform that runs smart contracts and allows you to build dapps on it. Ethereum is fueled by the cryptocurrency Ether.
Exchange:
A platform (centralized or decentralized) for exchanging (trading) different forms of cryptocurrencies. These exchanges allow you to exchange cryptos for local currency. Some popular exchanges are Coinbase, Bittrex, Kraken and more.
Faucet:
A website which gives away free cryptocurrencies.
Fiat money:
Fiat currency is legal tender whose value is backed by the government that issued it, such as the US dollar or UK pound.
Fork:
A split in the blockchain, resulting in two separate branches, an original and a new alternate version of the cryptocurrency. As a single blockchain forks into two, they will both run simultaneously on different parts of the network. For example, Bitcoin Cash is a Bitcoin fork.
FOMO:
Fear of missing out.
Frictionless:
A system is frictionless when there are zero transaction costs or trading retraints.
FUD:
Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt regarding the crypto market.
Gas:
A fee paid to run transactions, dapps and smart contracts on Ethereum.
Halving:
A 50% decrease in block reward after the mining of a pre-specified number of blocks. Every 4 years, the “reward” for successfully mining a block of bitcoin is reduced by half. This is referred to as “Halving”.
Hardware wallet:
Physical wallet devices that can securely store cryptocurrency maximally. Some examples are Ledger Nano S**,** Digital Bitbox and more**.**
Hash:
The process that takes input data of varying sizes, performs an operation on it and converts it into a fixed size output. It cannot be reversed.
Hashing:
The process by which you mine bitcoin or similar cryptocurrency, by trying to solve the mathematical problem within it, using cryptographic hash functions.
HODL:
A Bitcoin enthusiast once accidentally misspelled the word HOLD and it is now part of the bitcoin legend. It can also mean hold on for dear life.
ICO (Initial Coin Offering):
A blockchain-based fundraising mechanism, or a public crowd sale of a new digital coin, used to raise capital from supporters for an early stage crypto venture. Beware of these as there have been quite a few scams in the past.
John mcAfee:
A man who will one day eat his balls on live television for falsely predicting bitcoin going to 100k. He has also become a small meme within the crypto community for his outlandish claims.
JOMO:
Joy of missing out. For those who are so depressed about missing out their sadness becomes joy.
KYC:
Know your customer(alternatively consumer).
Lambo:
This stands for Lamborghini. A small meme within the investing community where the moment someone gets rich they spend their earnings on a lambo. One day we will all have lambos in crypto-valhalla.
Ledger:
Away from Blockchain, it is a book of financial transactions and balances. In the world of crypto, the blockchain functions as a ledger. A digital currency’s ledger records all transactions which took place on a certain block chain network.
Leverage:
Trading with borrowed capital (margin) in order to increase the potential return of an investment.
Liquidity:
The availability of an asset to be bought and sold easily, without affecting its market price.
of the coins.
Margin trading:
The trading of assets or securities bought with borrowed money.
Market cap/MCAP:
A short-term for Market Capitalization. Market Capitalization refers to the market value of a particular cryptocurrency. It is computed by multiplying the Price of an individual unit of coins by the total circulating supply.
Miner:
A computer participating in any cryptocurrency network performing proof of work. This is usually done to receive block rewards.
Mining:
The act of solving a complex math equation to validate a blockchain transaction using computer processing power and specialized hardware.
Mining contract:
A method of investing in bitcoin mining hardware, allowing anyone to rent out a pre-specified amount of hashing power, for an agreed amount of time. The mining service takes care of hardware maintenance, hosting and electricity costs, making it simpler for investors.
Mining rig:
A computer specially designed for mining cryptocurrencies.
Mooning:
A situation the price of a coin rapidly increases in value. Can also be used as: “I hope bitcoin goes to the moon”
Node:
Any computing device that connects to the blockchain network.
Open source:
The practice of sharing the source code for a piece of computer software, allowing it to be distributed and altered by anyone.
OTC:
Over the counter. Trading is done directly between parties.
P2P (Peer to Peer):
A type of network connection where participants interact directly with each other rather than through a centralized third party. The system allows the exchange of resources from A to B, without having to go through a separate server.
Paper wallet:
A form of “cold storage” where the private keys are printed onto a piece of paper and stored offline. Considered as one of the safest crypto wallets, the truth is that it majors in sweeping coins from your wallets.
Pre mining:
The mining of a cryptocurrency by its developers before it is released to the public.
Proof of stake (POS):
A consensus distribution algorithm which essentially rewards you based upon the amount of the coin that you own. In other words, more investment in the coin will leads to more gain when you mine with this protocol In Proof of Stake, the resource held by the “miner” is their stake in the currency.
PROOF OF WORK (POW) :
The competition of computers competing to solve a tough crypto math problem. The first computer that does this is allowed to create new blocks and record information.” The miner is then usually rewarded via transaction fees.
Protocol:
A standardized set of rules for formatting and processing data.
Public key / private key:
A cryptographic code that allows a user to receive cryptocurrencies into an account. The public key is made available to everyone via a publicly accessible directory, and the private key remains confidential to its respective owner. Because the key pair is mathematically related, whatever is encrypted with a public key may only be decrypted by its corresponding private key.
Pump and dump:
Massive buying and selling activity of cryptocurrencies (sometimes organized and to one’s benefit) which essentially result in a phenomenon where the significant surge in the value of coin followed by a huge crash take place in a short time frame.
Recovery phrase:
A set of phrases you are given whereby you can regain or access your wallet should you lose the private key to your wallets — paper, mobile, desktop, and hardware wallet. These phrases are some random 12–24 words. A recovery Phrase can also be called as Recovery seed, Seed Key, Recovery Key, or Seed Phrase.
REKT:
Referring to the word “wrecked”. It defines a situation whereby an investor or trader who has been ruined utterly following the massive losses suffered in crypto industry.
Ripple:
An alternative payment network to Bitcoin based on similar cryptography. The ripple network uses XRP as currency and is capable of sending any asset type.
ROI:
Return on investment.
Safu:
A crypto term for safe popularized by the Bizonnaci YouTube channel after the CEO of Binance tweeted
“Funds are safe."
“the exchage I use got hacked!”“Oh no, are your funds safu?”
“My coins better be safu!”


Sats/Satoshi:
The smallest fraction of a bitcoin is called a “satoshi” or “sat”. It represents one hundred-millionth of a bitcoin and is named after Satoshi Nakamoto.
Satoshi Nakamoto:
This was the pseudonym for the mysterious creator of Bitcoin.
Scalability:
The ability of a cryptocurrency to contain the massive use of its Blockchain.
Sharding:
A scaling solution for the Blockchain. It is generally a method that allows nodes to have partial copies of the complete blockchain in order to increase overall network performance and consensus speeds.
Shitcoin:
Coin with little potential or future prospects.
Shill:
Spreading buzz by heavily promoting a particular coin in the community to create awareness.
Short position:
Selling of a specific cryptocurrency with an expectation that it will drop in value.
Silk road:
The online marketplace where drugs and other illicit items were traded for Bitcoin. This marketplace is using accessed through “TOR”, and VPNs. In October 2013, a Silk Road was shut down in by the FBI.
Smart Contract:
Certain computational benchmarks or barriers that have to be met in turn for money or data to be deposited or even be used to verify things such as land rights.
Software Wallet:
A crypto wallet that exists purely as software files on a computer. Usually, software wallets can be generated for free from a variety of sources.
Solidity:
A contract-oriented coding language for implementing smart contracts on Ethereum. Its syntax is similar to that of JavaScript.
Stable coin:
A cryptocoin with an extremely low volatility that can be used to trade against the overall market.
Staking:
Staking is the process of actively participating in transaction validation (similar to mining) on a proof-of-stake (PoS) blockchain. On these blockchains, anyone with a minimum-required balance of a specific cryptocurrency can validate transactions and earn Staking rewards.
Surge:
When a crypto currency appreciates or goes up in price.
Tank:
The opposite of mooning. When a coin tanks it can also be described as crashing.
Tendies
For traders , the chief prize is “tendies” (chicken tenders, the treat an overgrown man-child receives for being a “Good Boy”) .
Token:
A unit of value that represents a digital asset built on a blockchain system. A token is usually considered as a “coin” of a cryptocurrency, but it really has a wider functionality.
TOR: “The Onion Router” is a free web browser designed to protect users’ anonymity and resist censorship. Tor is usually used surfing the web anonymously and access sites on the “Darkweb”.
Transaction fee:
An amount of money users are charged from their transaction when sending cryptocurrencies.
Volatility:
A measure of fluctuations in the price of a financial instrument over time. High volatility in bitcoin is seen as risky since its shifting value discourages people from spending or accepting it.
Wallet:
A file that stores all your private keys and communicates with the blockchain to perform transactions. It allows you to send and receive bitcoins securely as well as view your balance and transaction history.
Whale:
An investor that holds a tremendous amount of cryptocurrency. Their extraordinary large holdings allow them to control prices and manipulate the market.
Whitepaper:

A comprehensive report or guide made to understand an issue or help decision making. It is also seen as a technical write up that most cryptocurrencies provide to take a deep look into the structure and plan of the cryptocurrency/Blockchain project. Satoshi Nakamoto was the first to release a whitepaper on Bitcoin, titled “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System” in late 2008.
And with that I finally complete my odyssey. I sincerely hope that this helped you and if you are new, I welcome you to crypto. If you read all of that I hope it increased, you in knowledge.
my final definition:
Crypto-Family:
A collection of all the HODLers and crypto fanatics. A place where all people alike unite over a love for crypto.
We are all in this together as we pioneer the new world that is crypto currency. I wish you a great day and Happy HODLing.
-u/flacciduck
feel free to comment words or terms that you feel should be included or about any errors I made.
Edit1:some fixes were made and added words.
submitted by flacciduck to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Why and how to run a ChainX node on Ankr

Why and how to run a ChainX node on Ankr

https://preview.redd.it/a23q7hk8vzd51.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=e6881f85b69711ad999ec80481a1d982019a798c
Looking to get started with ChainX? Eager to know what ChainX is? This article will cover both, so stay where are you are and learn about what separates ChainX from other Polkadot Parachains.
ChainX is one of the several Parachains of Polkadot, a Web3 Foundation project focused on bringing the numerous blockchains of the sector together through interoperability and easy integration.
The ChainX team is building a public blockchain ecosystem of multi-currency integration. With a unique PoS consensus algorithm that follows an asset mining model, “One Asset One Vote” measures mining power based on market value of large caps like BTC, ETH, EOS, and other assets from users inter-chain deposits. Deposit data is then used with Bitcoin’s model to halve output eventually, and distribute PCX tokens in the fairest way possible.
If you are ready to start asset mining across different chains with ChainX, read on!

Tutorial: how to deploy your ChainX node on Ankr

  1. Head to app.ankr.com, create an account if you don’t have one already, then click the Deploy a Node button.

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  1. Search or scroll down to find the ChainX card, hover over it and press the Deploy button next to the Validator node or Full node label.

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The Validator node is for staking, while the Full node serves development purposes.
  1. Now you are taken to the configuration page. The hardware configuration is already set to the optimal system requirements, but you are allowed to increase the specifications if you wish to do so by using the Advanced button.
  2. The platform also recommends a cluster, which is usually the one that has the most freely available resources. In this particular case, the recommended cluster is the UK cluster, but another cluster may be recommended depending on where resources are most available at the time.

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  1. If you are deploying a Full node, select if you need archiving. In case you want to query historical data, please select Archive. If this is not the case, you can go with the Non-Archive option for less disk space and faster performance.

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If you want to run a Validator, there is no archive option.
  1. Name your node, using up to 32 characters, or simply take the default name provided.
  2. Select your preferred payment option (ANKR ERC-20, ANKR Native or USDT or credit card). If you choose to pay with cryptocurrency you need to deposit funds on the generated address.
  3. Click Deploy and once payment is received, your node will automatically start deploying and be online in minutes for use!

Questions?

You can find the most relevant FAQ’s and interact directly with our customer service agents at https://app.ankr.com, or contact the admins in our official Telegram Node Support group

Useful ChainX links

Follow Ankr on social media

submitted by hunnykaushal3 to Ankrofficial [link] [comments]

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.
The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.
Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.

Stock Market Crash

The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially.
All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity.
Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses.
Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely.
So, why inflate the economy so much?
Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value.
Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat.
Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis.
Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.

Economic Analysis of Bitcoin

The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero.
Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology.
Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value.
Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block.
Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer.
Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed.
Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public.
A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved.
Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely.
Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.

Trading or Investing?

The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.

Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin

Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
  • Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
  • VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
  • Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.

Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin

Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.

Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin

Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
  • Yearly Lows (last seven years): 1/1/13, 4/10/14, 1/15/15, 1/17/16, 1/1/17, 12/15/18, 2/6/19
  • Monthly Mode: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 12
  • Daily Mode: 1, 1, 6, 10, 15, 15, 17
  • Monthly Lows (for the last year): 3/12/20 (10:00pm), 2/28/20 (7:09am), 1/2/20 (8:09pm), 12/18/19 (8:00am), 11/25/19 (1:00am), 10/24/19 (2:59am), 9/30/19 (2:59am), 8/29,19 (4:00am), 7/17/19 (7:59am), 6/4/19 (5:59pm), 5/1/19 (12:00am), 4/1/19 (12:00am)
  • Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
  • Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
  • Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
  • Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points
Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows.
Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram.
1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21
2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm
In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year!
Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market.
Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020.
The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
  • 2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
  • 3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
  • 5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
  • 5/26/20 – hashrate difficulty halvening
  • 11/14/20 – stock market low
  • 1/15/21 – yearly low for BTC, around $8528
  • 8/19/21 – end of stock bear market
  • 11/26/21 – eighteen months from halvening, average peak from halvenings (BTC begins rising from $3000 area to above $23,312)
  • 4/23/22 – all-time high
Taken from my blog: http://aliamin.info/2020/
submitted by aibnsamin1 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Proof of Drinks: An Open-Source Bitcoin Drinking Game

I’ve developed a new game that is played P2P…
Proof of Drinks: An Open-Source Bitcoin Drinking Game
GAME RULES
Player Types:
1. Includes Drinkers, Buyers, and Sellers 2. Anyone within The Market may play any of the aforementioned roles at any time. 3. Manages BITCOIN PROTOCOL - Block Reward (frequency, amount, halving) - Die Rolls - Drink Pour 
1. Acts autonomously; is not included within The Market. 2. Sells glasses and drinks to Drinkers. 3. Manages PRICE LIST OF GOODS - Glasses (fiat/glass) - Drinks (fiat/oz.) 
1. Acts autonomously; is not included within The Market. 2. Manages MONETARY POLICY - Inflation Rate - Circulating Supply of Fiat 
Items needed:
  1. Copies of GAME RULES, BITCOIN PROTOCOL, PRICE LIST OF GOODS, and MONETARY POLICY.
  2. One six-sided die.
  3. A number of six-ounce measuring glasses equal to the number of players within The Market.
  4. Drinks (alcoholic or otherwise).
  5. Fiat money (or Monopoly money).
  6. Minimum 6 players or so.
Object of the Game:
  1. To learn the mechanics of bitcoin and the economy through drinking and having fun.
  2. The game ends when one or more of the following conditions are met:
    • You run out of drinks.
    • Everyone is tired of drinking.
    • Everyone is tired of playing.
  3. At the end of the game, the person with the highest net worth (fiat + bitcoin) is deemed The Winner.
General Rules and Definitions:
  1. All die rolls are performed in front of all participants.
  2. Bathroom breaks are permitted, however gameplay continues. If a Drinker is in the bathroom during their round, their round is forfeited.
  3. Anyone within The Market may buy and sell anything at anytime.
  4. Round: The procedure for drinking; may or may not result in the production of bitcoin.
  5. Block: A round that results in the production of bitcoin.
  6. Anyone within The Market can propose a change to any rule at any time.
    • If everyone agrees, game play continues with the new rule.
    • If no one agrees, the person who proposed the change may continue playing or quit the game.
    • If some, but not all, agree, then the game may be forked into two separate games (Note: this may cause hurt feelings). The Government and The Bartender tend to both games.
  7. All values (bitcoin, block reward, fiat, etc) are to be rounded to the nearest whole number.
Analogies:
  1. Drinkers = Miners
  2. Glasses = Mining equipment
  3. Drinking = Proof of Work
  4. Die roll after drinking = Mining for the nonce
  5. Drink pour = Difficulty
  6. Bathroom break = Mining equipment maintenance
  7. All drinks and die rolls observed by everyone = Nodes validating
Game Setup:
  1. Designate a minimum of one player to be The Government.
  2. Designate a minimum of one player to be The Bartender.
  3. All other players (minimum 2? 3? 4?) are collectively The Market.
  4. The Government gives The Bartender and everyone within The Market ___ dollars each.
  5. For the first round, everyone within The Market is a Drinker (in subsequent rounds, anyone can step in our step out of the Drinker role).
  6. All Drinkers claim a chair around a table.
  7. All Drinkers purchase a glass from The Bartender at ___ dollars per glass. (Use a 6 oz. measuring glass for ease of pour.)
  8. All Drinkers roll a die; the Drinker with the highest number goes first. Subsequent rounds proceed clockwise.
  9. The Bartender determines the initial Cost of Drinking (fiat/drink).
  10. Determine the beginning Block Reward (50?).
Round Procedure:
  1. Determine the Nonce
    • Someone in The Market rolls a die. The number rolled is the Nonce for the Block.
  2. Determine the Pour
    • Someone, other than the Drinker for this round, rolls a die. The number rolled equals the amount of drink poured (e.g., a roll of “3” means 3 ounces is poured into the Drinker’s glass).
  3. The Drinker drinks the pour, then, once The Market has collectively determined the glass is free of liquid, the Drinker rolls a die. All participants in The Market verify the die roll.
    • If the die matches the Nonce, the Drinker receives the Block Reward! It is now the next Drinker’s turn, beginning again with Step 1 above.
    • If the die does not match the Nonce, no Block Reward is granted. It is now the next Drinker’s turn, beginning with Step 2 above.
  4. Every 10 Blocks, the Block Reward is cut in half.
  5. Once all Drinkers have completed a Round, The Government determines a new Inflation Rate and inflates the Circulating Supply of Fiat accordingly.
    • The Government rolls a die in another room then comes out and announces the result of the die roll. The number of the result is the inflation rate (e.g., if the roll is “3” the inflation rate is 3%).
    • The Government multiplies the Circulating Supply of Fiat by the Inflation Rate and adds this amount to the Circulating Supply of Fiat. The Government can do anything it wants with the fiat created.
  6. The value of each bitcoin (fiat/bitcoin) is determined by members of The Market.
    • For the determination of the Winner at the end of the game, the final value of bitcoin is the last value at which it traded.
submitted by SufficientRadio to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Halving

If you’ve heard the term ‘Bitcoin Halving‘ and have no idea what it means, don’t worry. This article will give you a brief explanation of what the concept is and how it works.
Before we begin, it is important to have some background information. At the core of Bitcoin’s technology is the blockchain. This is essentially a virtual ledger that records all of the coin’s transactions. It keeps records safe and prevents people from spending coins that they no longer own. To maintain such a vast and complex system requires a lot of computing power. This is where ‘miners’ come in.
Miners lend their computing power to help maintain, secure, and record transactions. In exchange, they get rewarded with newly ‘mined’ Bitcoins. Originally, the system allowed for 50 coins to be mined every 10 minutes. However, it is designed to cut that amount in half every 4 years. Since Bitcoin halving has already happened twice in the past, the current amount of Bitcoins mined every 10 minutes stands at 12.5. The next Bitcoin halving is set to happen May 18 of this year.

What effects will Bitcoin Halving have?

The simple answer is: no one knows for sure.
Because the amount of Bitcoins will become more limited or scarce (the last Bitcoin will be mined in 2140), the traditional expectation is that if demand remains constant, as supply decreases, value increases. Yet, when looking back at previous Bitcoin halving events, the reality may be a bit more complicated. The first Bitcoin halving in 2012 did result in prices increasing shortly after. However, the second Bitcoin halving in 2016 actually saw prices initially decreasing, before returning back up and beyond as time went on.
Whether the eventual price increase was simply a delayed reaction to the halving or whether it was caused by other factors, it is hard to say for certain. One argument against the expectation that prices should always go up is the concept of these events being ‘price in’. What this means is that because people expect and know when exactly a Bitcoin halving will happen, they can prepare ahead of time. If people purchase more Bitcoins as an anticipatory measure, prices will already go up even before a Bitcoin halving happens. And so, the event itself would not have any significant effects. Whatever does happen, come May 18th, we will all be watching closely.
submitted by monster_pizza to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

What you should know about the bitcoin halving

What you should know about the bitcoin halving
https://preview.redd.it/wl6l09melkv41.png?width=1025&format=png&auto=webp&s=67a72ac734ae8dc39452143ac9c4ec5d58c34eac
Whether you’re a crypto faithful or just a passer-by who happened to notice a bitcoin headline, you’ve likely come across the halving.
The roughly quadrennial event is arguably an important one in the progression of the bitcoin network. For all the adjustments and changes to bitcoin’s code since its launch – and the evolution of the ecosystem and industry around it – the issuance cycle and bitcoin’s predetermined supply have never been altered.
The halving is, perhaps, emblematic of both bitcoin’s philosophical basis as well as its technical progression. It’s also a heck of a lot of fun, with past halvings inspiring celebrations and watch-parties for those counting down each block until the halving officially kicks in.
So, let’s get into it.

What is the bitcoin halving?

First, some basics. Each bitcoin block brings three things with it: transactions, newly-created bitcoins and fees.
For example, block number 625875 included 1,478 transactions worth 4899.23684782 BTC. The block was created by BTC.com. In exchange for making that block, BTC.com earned 12.5 BTC and 0.08439752 BTC in fees.
When bitcoin first launched, each block had a subsidy of 50 BTC. In 2012, that amount fell to 25 BTC per block, and in 2016 it was further reduced to 12.5 BTC per block. With upcoming halving – currently estimated to take place in or around May 12, when the network hits its 630,000th block – that amount will drop to 6.25 BTC per block.
To date, roughly 18.3 million bitcoins have been minted out of a total of 21 million that will ever be created.

Wait, what’s a miner?

Miners create the blocks of transactions that make sending BTC throughout the distributed bitcoin network possible. They append new blocks to the ever-growing chain – that’s the blockchain – and are rewarded with new bitcoins for doing so.
To create block 625875, BTC.com ran its miners and sought to be the first to create the next block. Mining is resource-intensive by design, and while some have described the process as an effort to solve a complex mathematical problem, a more apt description might be that miners rapidly try forming different numbers until they land on the right one.
Mining is a key element of Bitcoin’s security. As more blocks are added, it becomes more difficult to rewind the transactional clock and undo transactions from earlier blocks.
The generation of new BTC is how miners make money; their profits come from the sale price minus the cost of electricity, labor and everything else it takes to keep their legions of mining machines humming. The block reward is also the bedrock incentive for miners to keep the block production process – and, as a result, the transaction history – honest. By getting paid in bitcoin, they have an interest in seeing its price stay steady. A transaction history prone to manipulation or tampering would have no value.
The cycle of block reward or subsidy halvings is baked into bitcoin’s code. The reward reduction underpins bitcoin’s controlled supply, serving as a kind of digital parallel to finite natural resources.
So miners create new bitcoins, and with the halving, they’ll create fewer new bitcoins.
Yes. As The Block highlighted on Monday, miners currently make an estimated $13.4 million per day in new bitcoin and fees. Once the halving kicks in, that’ll drop to about $6.7 million total in the even that prices remain steady.
Of course, that number may very well fluctuate depending on the market reaction in the hours, days, weeks and months ahead. For a deeper look, check out The Block’s Larry Cermak by-the-charts column on the halving published on Monday.
I heard that the price is going to go up with the halving. Is that true?
Much digital ink has been spilled in recent months on the question of whether bitcoin’s price will rise as a result of the halving.
There are varying theories as to why: the halving will bring new market entrants, the tightening of issuance will spur more buying, or history will basically repeat itself. For example, bitcoin’s price rose above $1,000 a year after its 2012 halving. The July 2016 halving saw bitcoin’s price around $660 – a year later, the price had soared above $2,000.
But those were, arguably, different times, and next month’s halving is the first to occur after the parabolic craziness of early 2018.
A price increase isn’t a foregone conclusion – though, to be sure, neither is a drop or a continuation of the status quo.
Okay…so the number isn’t going up?
Nobody knows. And this isn’t investment advice, so quit asking me.

Who will be affected by this?

One can expect that major portions of the bitcoin-facing industry could be impacted in one way or another.
As noted above, miners will see the primary element of their income – new bitcoins – be cut in half. That’s bad news for miners who are operating older, less efficient hardware or borrowed significant sums of money to get new equipment – especially those hit by the recent turbulence in crypto markets. Bitcoin’s hash rate – a measure of the network’s computational power – could slip as some operations find themselves unable to make a profit and thus are forced to power down.
Exchanges will be affected because they’ll be front-and-center for any market response. It could prove to be a boon for exchanges as they’ll arguably be in the best position to benefit from any positive market moves.

Where can I watch the halving take place?

The best vantage point would a block explorer, where live updates for new transaction blocks can be found.
Given that the vast majority of countries are currently in the midst of social distancing because of the coronavirus pandemic, it’s unlikely that in-person parties will be held.
But with everyone stuck at home, it’s virtually certain that those with a stake or interest in crypto will be online – from Twitter to Telegram to IRC – waiting for the third-ever bitcoin reward halving to take place.
Written By: Ben
Edited By: Mosun
Graphics By: Jacobite
submitted by Telos4africa to u/Telos4africa [link] [comments]

"Quite honestly, I don't think we should be doing smart contracts on Bitcoin. Bitcoin doesn't do smart contracts, and it doesn't do smart contracts because it does security." - Andreas Antonopoulos

Taken from LTB #414 Live Q&A
Stephanie Murphy: “What's everybody's view on Rootstock (RSK)?”
Andreas M. Antonopoulos: I don't think Rootstock is putting smart contracts on Bitcoin. Rootstock is allowing you to use Bitcoin to pay for smart contracts on the Rootstock Drivechain, which you could theoretically do by shifting money into Ethereum. In fact, recently I saw someone who had built a gateway that allowed you to make a Lightning payment that terminated in an Ethereum contract. So there's many ways to bridge different blockchains together. Quite honestly, I don't think we should be doing smart contracts on Bitcoin. Bitcoin doesn't do smart contracts, and it doesn't do smart contracts because it does security. That's not a trade off I think is worth doing. It's much better to leave that to a chain that has a much more experimental culture and can take bigger risks.
As to whether we can do smart contracts, that's not a binary question; it's a question of value. So can we do smart contracts that can keep $1,000,000 secure? Yes. $10,000,000? Maybe. $100,000,000? No, the DAO proved that. How about now? DAI is doing more, so maybe yes. So it's basically a moving front. As the the maturity of the smart contract ecosystem expands, we can do bigger and bigger stakes (no pun intended) within the smart contract ecosystem. Every now and then there's gonna be a fairly catastrophic failure that's gonna cause a regression in the amounts of money that's put in them. But essentially it's growing. We're proving this every day, and it's the same thing with Bitcoin. The way you measure security in a smart contract or you measure security in a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin is how secure is Bitcoin? X billion dollars. That's the stake that is sitting on it right now, unhacked so far.
BONUS: Bitcoin's security model as block reward approaches 0.
Stephanie Murphy: “Do you think Bitcoin will be able to shift from block rewards to transaction fees to maintain security as the block reward approaches zero?”
Andreas M. Antonopoulos: “This is one of the fundamental misunderstandings and dynamics of mining for most people, which is the idea that something suddenly happens sometime at an undescribed future, either at the next halving or in 2141. The truth is on a daily basis, every single miner in the industry looks at six or seven different factors: the efficiency of their mining equipment, the price of electricity in their local fiat, the cost of their operation system, the current price of Bitcoin in fiat, the reward that's available as a block subsidy, the average amount of fees they can get, and the relative proportion of hashing power. They decide based on all of these factors. Do I leave this specific machine on at its current efficiency, or do I turn it off, or do I point it to another coin? That happens every single day. Every single day that decision continues, it’s rebalancing all of these dynamic factors. So the shift between block subsidy and fees happened every single day since January 3rd 2009 and it continues to happen today.
Sometimes, the capacity of the blockchain, the number of transactions that are in there, the value of the fees mean that it really attracts miners because there's a lot of fees to take. Other times, the fees decrease, the number of transactions decreases, so they're now more reliant on block subsidy and then it swings back and forth and back and forth. It's gonna oscillate in that way all the way to 2141.
submitted by lobt to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

r/Bitcoin recap - June 2019

Hi Bitcoiners!
I’m back with the 30th monthly Bitcoin news recap.
For those unfamiliar, each day I pick out the most popularelevant/interesting stories in Bitcoin and save them. At the end of the month I release them in one batch, to give you a quick (but not necessarily the best) overview of what happened in bitcoin over the past month.
You can see recaps of the previous months on Bitcoinsnippets.com
A recap of Bitcoin in May 2019
Adoption
Development
Security
Mining
Business
Research
Education
Regulation & Politics
Archeology (Financial Incumbents)
Price & Trading
Fun & Other
submitted by SamWouters to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

2 reasons why you should be bullish on Bitcoin now!!!

Today we are going to discuss about "why u should be or why u can be bullish on bitcoin". lets jump right into it .
we are coming straight to the point.
1. BITCOIN HALVING
The bitcoin reward halving or halving countdown is near around 111days approximately 4 months right now. Have a look on google trends . bitcoin halving searches is still going up which is a positive sign. so i personally predict or u can say its my opinion that in the next months we are going to see multiple media channels talking about the bitcoin halving/halvening and therefore bringing the attention back. i personally do not believe that bitcoin halving is fully priced in especially not by the people who dont even know about bitcoin yet and they can get excited about bitcoin halving as soon as they understand whats going on and how economics of bitcoin works, how the inflation of bitcoin works.
2. FUNDAMENTALS
I am not gonna talking about second layers solutions or improvements made by exchanges , improvements on ramps institutional investors or institutions etc.... like for example (CME FUTURES,BAKKT).
i am talking about the actual fundamentals as far as bitcoin is concerned. first of all security. bitcoin hash rate is on all time high territory. in fact today we have measured the second highest hashrate in history ever. bitcoin is as secure as it has never been before. we will see if that changes when the halving is coming up because of course then the profitability of miners is going to reduce to half but that is a story for another day . but not just the hashrate is something which is very positive for bitcoin but also segwit adoption.
submitted by Mahmood6692 to kucoin [link] [comments]

PCHAIN & Gate.io AMA Summary

PCHAIN & Gate.io AMA Summary

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Glad to have a great AMA with Gate.io on Feb.13th, 2020. Read patiently and you will get more known about PCHAIN and the future of PCHAIN.
For the AMA in Chinese, welcome to visit: https://www.gate.io/help/livetext/17312
Gate.io: Very happy to invite Dr. Jeff, founder of PCHAIN as our guest today!
Dr Jeff: I am very happy to receive an exclusive interview with Gate.io to share and exchange some things about the development of PCHAIN ​​with you.
Gate.io: Dr Jeff, you were engaged in Internet finance in 2017. Why did you want to do PCHAIN ​​as a public chain?
Dr Jeff: The development path of the Internet is that applications are king. You can see that many good Internet companies are doing applications. The blockchain is the next generation Internet. At that time, considering applications was a very good place to stay, and the best direction. It is the financial sector. At the time, I was the chief scientist of Internet finance at IBM and the head of the blockchain. At the time of 2015 and 2016, Ethereum was also very early. But after completing the application discovery, I found that the underlying technology is not enough. All applications need a good public chain as the basic support. It is in line with the stable development law and it is gradual, so I decided to do this underlying building block. In addition, many functions of Ethereum have been criticized, such as performance. Many public chains 2.0 and 3.0 have emerged to solve the performance problem-TPS, and we have also made many innovations. From TPS, interoperability, cross-chain to application direction by 2020, changes are very fast. Of course, we have also achieved very good results on TPS: Under the 1064 intercontinental (Asia, Europe, America) node environment, it can support 256 childchains to produce blocks in parallel and interoperate with the main chain without issue. The test network measured 126,000 TPS, theoretical TPS is 180,000 TPS, and can be infinitely expanded horizontally. This is not difficult from a technical perspective in the local area network, but it is difficult to achieve it in a transcontinental environment. This is a very good foundation, and we will develop applications in the future.
Gate.io: Users ask: How do you think of the progress made in PCHAIN ​​and how do you think of Private CCC?
Dr Jeff: This is what I want to talk about in this AMA. One direction is DeFi, including Staking. In addition to these two directions, more opportunities from the applications in the industry. In terms of industry opportunities, we have a pioneering layout, which is to propose a new concept: commercial childchain, Private CCC. Because the domestic regulatory environment is difficult to achieve large-scale direct public chain applications in China, everyone expects the form of alliance chains. However, the alliance chain has limited imagination space, produces results in a small scope, and the communication link between the alliance chain and the public chain does not exist. It is equivalent to setting up many small local area networks, but now everyone is directly connected to the Internet. We did a multi-chain commercial childchain architecture at the time, including 256 childchains in parallel worldwide, also to verify the scalability and technical stability of this architecture. A question of mutual trust. How to trust it? Through the interaction between the main chain and the childchain, the information on the childchain is continuously updated to the main chain. When an alliance chain wants to know the information of its alliance chain, it can fully trust the information recorded on the main chain in history. This will surely link everyone together and is in line with China’s policies. This is a very important logic that we propose for the commercial childchain. It is a consideration and design oriented to supervision and future-oriented.
Gate.io: When did PCHAIN ​​start?
Dr Jeff: The white paper was released at the end of March 2018, and the mainnet was launched on March 30, 2019. In less than a year, the main chain has generated more than 10 million blocks. Let’s take a specific example: Ethereum launched the mainnet in July 2015. Until this year, about 5 years already, the total block is 9 million.
Gate.io: Will it produce invalid information accumulation?
Dr Jeff: Yes, but there is a follow-up solution, which is SmartData-Intelligent Data Processing, which was released last year. It is scored on this framework. It is different from the simplest highest TPS. In the past, many blocks will be empty. Redundancy is even worthless, which will put a lot of pressure on the node disk. After the release of SmartData reduction, it successfully compressed 200G to 20G, which is almost 10 times compression. In theory, mobile phones can run on it. But because of some bandwidth requirements, the subsequent continuous evolution process, the ultimate goal is to make the nodes lighter and lighter and let more nodes access.
Gate.io: We are also mining at Pos nodes. Staking is hot in 2019, what do you think of Staking?
Dr Jeff: Halved, burning is also very hot this year. Why is burning important? I think it is related to Staking. Staking is naturally an inflation. There will be more and more tokens. Only burning will make the value continuously increase.
Gate.io: How did you consider this piece of PCHAIN?
Dr Jeff: We have such a mechanism for planning POS in the white paper, and we have always believed that it is leading the technology development trend in the industry. People who have read the PCHAIN ​​white paper will understand that PCHAIN ​​is also a halved token. Like Bitcoin, our mechanism is also halved in 4 years. This year is the second year. Second, the total amount is constant. How much Ethereum will issue on the original basis each year, and the newly mined Token on PCHAIN ​​is limited to 15% of pos. If it cannot be mined already, the owner on the childchain can go to the market to buy Token and inject it into the childchain, so that the miners of the childchain have the motivation to continue mining. This is different from Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Gate.io: Users ask: When will the commercial childchain start?
Dr Jeff: First quarter. The most important part of the year 2020 plan is the commercial childchain. The commercial childchain project in the first quarter must be confirmed. Although the impact of the new coronavirus, we are still very confident and communication has been ongoing.
Gate.io: How many commercial childchains are expected to be in PCHAIN ​​this year?
Dr Jeff: It’s hard to predict, but I can tell you that there are three childchains moving forward. Recently, there have been successive partners and domestic top software developers communicating. Because of the high incidence of blockchain applications this year, if they cooperate with large-scale software development, there may be a relatively explosive momentum.
Gate.io: What do you think of Staking?
Dr Jeff: Many of us still think from a technical point of view. POW has been for many years. The disadvantages of power consumption have been around for a long time, but the degree of decentralization is high. The future trend must be the large-scale application of the blockchain. This is a trend, and efficiency is very important. All projects are talking about POS. Staking is a derivative of the consensus mechanism. Only by holding the token in it will we focus on its security . Many early projects also exposed a lot of problems, which gradually reduced by half.
Gate.io: What are the shortcomings in the development process that need to be improved?
Dr Jeff: The shortcomings in the market are still relatively lacking. In 2018, our focus is all overseas, so the domestic voice is relatively small. After 2019, it has been developing and strengthening in the domestic market area, so that more people recognize PCHAIN.
Gate.io: I think we have our own wallet?
Dr Jeff: Yes, the current function can be staking, and a cross-chain transfer can be performed between the main chain and the childchain. Its basic positioning is a technology-oriented wallet, and the future plan is also in terms of technology. For example, quickly put some interesting applications (especially Ethereum) on PCHAIN, which is also a relatively important function. We are compatible with EVM of Ethereum. An Ethereum application developer can put it on PCHAIN ​​with almost no code changes.
Gate.io: What other application scenarios does the blockchain have in addition to the cryptocurrency circle? How to balance speed and decentralization under safe conditions?
Dr Jeff: Impossible triangle of blockchain, security, efficiency and security, in a certain perspective, there is no solution. The fundamental problem of balance lies in whether the consensus algorithm itself is good enough. Our original new consensus algorithm is called PDBFT consensus algorithm. Last year, everyone talked more than BFT, VIF random numbers, and a BOS data compression, including the Cosmos overseas team said that BOS has been integrated, our PDBFT integrates these three factors together, let the communication volume from the square of N to N, the degree of decentralization has been improved while ensuring efficiency.
Gate.io: The current commercial childchain is Private Chain. How to connect to Public Chain?
Dr Jeff: Cross-chain. In the future, in addition to its own main chain and childchains, it can also cross other chains.
Gate.io: Why did you choose to be listed at Gate.io?
Dr Jeff: Gate.io is one of the few exchanges that is very consistent with our basic thinking and philosophy of work, including founder Mr. Han, who has been persistently committed to technology, and even we have studied technical details for several hours. We have also contacted the founders of many exchanges. There are not many people like founder Mr. Han who know every detail very well. Secondly, Gate.io has a good community foundation. I think Gate.io is also in the world TOP position, its transaction volume and non-wash trading order are very real, this is very consistent with the spiritual pursuit of the blockchain.
Gate.io: Our users ask you, how to reduce the number of communication handshake to maintain consistency? The current workload proofs are all based on Sha256. Is there any further progress?
Dr Jeff: The Sha256 workload proof belongs to POW’s consensus algorithm and belongs to an axiom proof. Based on this axiom, everyone agrees that its decentralization is very good. However, in all POS, the emphasis is on cooperative handshake, which cannot be reduced from the perspective of collaboration, but it can reduce the amount of information transmitted during the collaboration process. Example: The reduction of communication volume makes the amount of collaboration less. Through communication compression, a lot of people shaking hands at the same time also improve the efficiency.
Gate.io: If the user wants to know some information, in addition to the official website and public account, and where can I find the desired content on the domestic platform?
Dr Jeff: If you prefer technology, you can go to github to watch it. There have been 23 major and minor upgrades since the mainnet launch last year.
Gate.io: What are the main adjustments to the mainnet upgrade?
Dr Jeff: It’s mainly rewarding. It’s a small part of staking for optimization.
Gate.io: Can you talk about future plans?
Dr Jeff: In the future, the focus will be on the commercial childchain. In addition to this, SmartData will be more important. At present, it is relatively new. Like Oracle, it is also part of SmartData.
Gate.io: How many people are using the new commercial childchain?
Dr Jeff: Generally speaking, there were thousands of data on a commercial childchain last year.
Gate.io: Some of the businesses on PCHAIN ​​are private chains. How can we get to the common chain in the future?
Dr Jeff: The commercial childchain itself has such a switch, uploading a part of the hash value to the public chain, and the user can operate it if he wants to open the switch, which depends on the consensus of these enterprises participating in the alliance chain.

Dr. Jeff Cao introduction
Dr Jeff, the founder of PCHAIN, the chief scientist of the China Internet of Things blockchain, the inventor of China’s first blockchain international patent, and the co-sponsor of China Ledger. In 2016, he completed the world ’s first transfer of blockchain asset income rights. He was the head of the IBM blockchain and has published a total of 22 top international papers and more than 30 US patents. He has chaired multiple ACM IEEE top international conference forums.

You can follow PCHAIN below
Telegram 1, Telegram(Chinese Community) Telegram(Russian Community),Telegram(Spanish Community) Telegram(Germany Community), Telegram (French Community) Telegram (Vietnam Community), Telegram Announcement Channel Twitter, Steemit,RedditFoundeCEO’s Twitter
submitted by pchain_org to Pchain_Org_Official [link] [comments]

Vertcoin Mining AMA

What is Vertcoin?

Vertcoin was created in 2014. It is a direct hedge against long term mining consensus centralization on the Bitcoin mining network. Vertcoin achieves its mining consensus solely through Graphics Cards as they are the most abundant / widely available consensus devices that produce a reasonable amount of hashrate. This is done using a mining algorithm that deliberately geared against devices like ASICs, FPGAs and CPUs (due to botnets) making them extremely inefficient. Consensus distribution over time is the most important aspect of a blockchain and should not be taken lightly. It is critical that you understand what blockchain specifications mean/do to fully understand Vertcoin.

Mining Vertcoin

When users of our network send each other Vertcoin, their transactions are secured by a process called mining. Miners will compose a so-called block out of the pending transactions, and need to perform a large number of computations called hashes in order to produce the Proof-of-Work. With this Proof-of-Work, the block is accepted by the network and the transactions in it become confirmed.
Mining is essentially a race. Whoever finds a valid Proof-of-Work and gets the block propagated over more than half of the Vertcoin network first, wins this race and is allowed to reward themselves with the block reward. The block reward is how new Vertcoin come in circulation. This block reward started at 50 VTC when Vertcoin was launched, and halves every four years. The current block reward is 25 VTC.
Vertcoin's One Click Miner: https://github.com/vertcoin-project/One-Click-Minereleases
Learn more about mining here: https://vertcoin.org/mine/
Specification List:
· Launch date: Jan 11, 2014
· Proof-Of-Work (Consensus Mechanism)
· Total Supply: 84,000,000 Vertcoin
· Preferred Consensus Device: GPU
· Mining Algorithm: Lyra2REv3 (Made by Vertcoin)
· Blocktime: 2.5 minutes
· SegWit: Activated
· Difficulty Adjustment Algorithm: Kimoto Gravity Well (Every Block)
· Block Halving: 4 year interval
· Initial Block Reward: 50 coins
· Current Block Reward: 25 coin
More spec information can be found here: https://vertcoin.org/specs-explained/

Why Does Vertcoin Use GPUs Then?

ASIC’s (Manufactuer Monopoly)
If mining were just a spade sure, use the most powerful equipment which would be an ASIC. The problem is ASICs are not widely available, and just happen to be controlled by a monopoly in China.
So, you want the most widely available tool that produces a fair amount of hashrate, which currently manifests itself as a Graphics Card.
CPUs would be great too but unfortunately there are viruses that take over hundreds of thousands of computers called Botnets (they’re almost as bad as ASICs).

Mining In Pools

Because mining is a race, it’s difficult for an individual miner to acquire enough computational power to win this race solo. Therefore there’s a concept called pool-mining. With pool-mining, miners cooperate in finding the correct Proof-of-Work for the block, and share the block reward based on the work contributed. The amount of work contributed is measured in so-called shares. Finding the Proof-of-Work for a share is much easier than finding it for a block, and when the cooperating miners find the Proof-of-Work for the block, they distribute the reward based on the number of shares each miner found. Vertcoin always recommends using P2Pool to keep mining as decentralized as possible.
How Do I Get Started?
If you want to get started mining, check out the Mine Vertcoin page.

Vertcoin just forked to Lyra2REv3 and we are currently working on Verthash

Verthash is and was under development before we decided to hard fork to Lyra2REv3. While Verthash would’ve resulted in the same effect for ASICs (making them useless for mining Vertcoin), the timeline was incompatible with the desire to get rid of ASICs quickly. Verthash is still under development and tries to address the outsourcability problem.
Verthash is an I/O bound algorithm that uses the blockchain data as input to the hashing algorithm. It therefore requires miners to have all the blockchain data available to them, which is currently about 4 GB of data. By making this mining data mandatory, it will become harder for auto profit switching miners — like the ones that rent out their GPU to Nicehash — because they will need to keep a full node running while mining other algorithms for the moment Verthash becomes more profitable — the data needs to be available immediately since updating it can take a while.
Over the past month, we have successfully developed a first implementation of Verthash in the Vertcoin Core code base. Within the development team we have run a few nodes on Testnet to test the functionality — and everything seems to work properly. The next step is to build out the GPU miners for AMD and Nvidia. This is a NOETA at the moment, since we’re waiting on GPU developers which are in high demand. Once the miners are ready, we’ll be releasing the Vertcoin 0.15 beta that hardforks the testnet together with the miners for the community to have a testrun. Given the structural difference between Lyra2RE and Verthash, we’ll have to run the testnet for a longer period than we did with the Lyra2REv3 hard fork. We’ll have to make sure the system is reliable before hardforking our mainnet. So the timeline will be longer than with the Lyra2REv3 hard fork.
Some people in the community have voiced concerns about the fact that Verthash development is not being done “out in the open”, i.e.: the code commits are not visible on Github. The main two reasons for us to keep our cards to our chest at this stage are: (1) only when the entire system including miners has been coded up can we be sure the system works, we don’t want to release preliminary stuff that doesn’t work or isn’t secure. Also (2) we don’t want to give hardware manufacturers or mining outsourcing platforms a head start on trying to defeat the mechanisms we’ve put in place.

Links and Resources

· Twitter: https://twitter.com/Vertcoin
· Donations: vertcoin.org/donate
· Join our Discord: https://discord.gg/vertcoin
· Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/vertcoin/
· Official Website: https://vertcoin.org/
· Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/vertcoin
· Vertcoin Talk: https://soundcloud.com/vertcoin-talk
· Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/vertcoin
submitted by Canen01 to gpumining [link] [comments]

Three Laws of BTC Bull and Bear Cycle and Its Applications — Freezing Point Forecast — One

Three Laws of BTC Bull and Bear Cycle and Its Applications — Freezing Point Forecast — One
📷
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TOKEN Roll x FENBUSHI DIGITAL
Analyst: Song Shuangjie
Special Adviser: Shen Bo Rin
Guide:
The fourth price-rising cycle of BTC might commence around May 2019. The mainstream institutions join the game and ETF might be the driving force of the fourth round of price cycle.
Summary:
BTC has undergone three rounds of price cycles. ‘It is different this time’ has always been a terrible lesson for investors. The tokens, typical represented by BTC, are special in nature to other financial products, which makes it easily get mistaken that BTC will go up straightly and never decline. When the cycle power works, the asset price, which was thought to create a different history, will collapse. There are 3 major rules of the BTC price cycle:
A. BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle. A complete BTC price cycle lasts for about four years. The price-rising section will commence one year ahead of the time before the output is halved. The BTC output was halved for the first time at the end of November 2012, and before that the BTC price touched the bottom in November 2011. The BTC output was halved for the second time in July 2016, as the BTC price touched the bottom in August 2015. As you can see, each time BTC output halving, is the start of a price-rising cycle, and the price speeding up begins with it.
B. BTC price fluctuation range decreases as market value increasing. The BTC’s (in circulation) market value varies with its price fluctuations, which means BTC’s price rising makes its market value increases, and the price fluctuation range decreases. It is similar to the historical process of other asset classes. During the first price cycle, the price of BTC rose by 10636 times which was the biggest gain, and the maximum drawdown was declined by 93.76%. During the second price cycle, the price of BTC rose by 623 times, and declined by 83.93% maximum. During the third price cycle, BTC rose by 98.57 times at most, the maximum declining has not been confirmed yet.
C. The innovation led by BTC is constantly evolving and more and more approved by the mainstream. From BTC to Altcoin, from Altcoin to Crowdsale, there are iconic innovations and applications in every price cycle. In the first cycle, the birth and gradual application of BTC was a landmark event. In the second cycle, with the re-emergence of BTC in 2013, the tide of the Altcoins was rampant, and a large number of Altcoins appeared. In the third cycle, Crowdsale began to be popular around the world, and many websites started to provide Crowdsale's news and discussion forum. Since 2017, Crowdsale has dominated the blockchain investment, far exceeding VCs and corporate investment. With the development of blockchain technology, the evolution of digital certification, the improvement of practitioners' awareness, and the evolution of government regulation, the innovation led by BTC has evolved and is more approved by the mainstream.
The third round of the price cycle might come to an end around May 2019, and followed by the fourth round of price cycle. The maximum rise in the BTC's fourth price-rising cycle will be smaller than last three cycles. BTC's increasing market value demands more capital. Digital token shall embrace supervision to absorb more institutional funds. ETF will be a viable solution. In the future, it will shift from Crowdsale to ETF, and from deregulation to embracing supervision.
Risk Tips: ETFs have put capital amount into this market less than that we expected. Quantum computer technology is advancing by leaps and bounds
Content
1 The First Round of Price Cycle .
2 The Second Round of Price Cycle
3 The Third Round of Price Cycle
4 Three Major Rules of BTC Price Cycle
4.1 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
4.2 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
4.3 BTC-led innovatioized by the mainstream
5 The new journey of BTC will Start in May 2019
List of Graphs
Graph 1: BTC Price Trend in The First Price Cycle (in USD)
Graph 2: BTC price trend in the second round of price cycle (in USD)
Graph 3: The number of tokens in 2013 has increased significantly Graph 4: BTC price trend in the third round of price cycle (in USD)
Graph 5: VIX index and BTC price are negatively correlated
Graph 6: Crowdsale has dominated blockchain investment since 2017 (millions of US dollars)
Graph 7: A large number of Crypto Funds were established in recent years.
Graph 8: ETH price trend (in USD)
Graph 9: ETH price is positively related to the size of Crowdsale financing
Graph 10: Lightning network capacity continues to grow
Graph 11: The number of lightning network channels continues to grow
Graph 12: The global Crowdsale growth rate slows down in 2018 .
Graph 13: Crowdsale’s fundraising has started to decline since 2018 .
Graph 14: Significant growth in venture capital in the blockchain sector in 2018
Graph 15: BTC block reward trend reduction
Graph 16: BTC price cycle and halving mechanism (in USD)
Graph 17: BTC market value scale trend increase
Graph 18: BTC price fluctuations become smaller
Graph 19: Admission to mainstream institutions has continued since the end of 2018
Graph 20: The third round of the price cycle may be completed around May 2019
Graph 21: The current stage of the price cycle has been probable more than half, and the downside space is limited
History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme. --Mark Twain
‘It is different this time’ has always been a terrible lesson for investors. The tokens, typical represented by BTC, are special in nature to other financial products, which results in producing an idea, in some investors’ mind, that the price of BTC will go up straightly and never decline. When the cycle power works, the asset price, which was thought to create a different history, will collapse. No matter it is the A-share market of 2007 or the one of 2015, or any ‘bubble time’ in human history, the cycle power played its role. As far as BTC is concerned, its price has also experienced three rounds of cycles.
In addition, when the asset price is in a dark period of continuous decline and weak rebound, the power of the cycle also works. As long as it is a valuable asset, its price will eventually bounce back from the bottom. Opportunities have always been there, if you have an asset with high potential in hand. In the dark moments before dawn, the more you are afraid, the more you will be confused. At this time, you have to believe in the value investing. ‘Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful’, not the other way around. That means, we shall invest reversely, buying undervalued assets gradually in the bottom region of price decline cycle; selling overvalued assets gradually in the top region of price-rising cycle; and following the trend in other time region of the cycle.
1 The First Round of Price Cycle
The first round of BTC price cycle lasted for 610 days, from March 2010 to November 2011, and in this cycle, BTC price rise rate was the highest of BTCs three price cycles.
The price rise stage of the first round of price cycle, from March 2010 to June 2011, lasted for 447 days. The starting price was 0.003 USD/piece, and the highest price was 31.91 USD/piece, the rise rate reached 10,636 times. The price decline section of the first round of price cycle, from June 2011 to November 2011, lasted for 163 days. In this price decline section, the starting price of BTC was $31.91 per piece, and the lowest price was $1.99 per piece. The decline rate was 94%.
On May 22, 2010, the famous BTC Pizza dealt. Laszlo Hanyecz from Jacksonville, FL, bought two pizzas with 10,000 BTCs. Each price ofBTC is less than 0.01US dollars.
In the first round of the price cycle, there is no explicit positive or negative factors causing BTC's price huge fluctuation. Fluctuations are more like in a “natural” situation. Before the first BTC bubble bursted in November 2011, its price was in a trend of increasing. The reason of rise was that the price base of BTC was very low. With the understanding of BTC gradually getting better, the demand increased, and then, the price rose. For example, June 2011, WikiLeaks and some organizations began accepting BTC donations.
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2 The Second Round of Price Cycle
The second round of BTC price cycle lasted for 1377 days, from November 2011 to August 2015, and in this cycle, the price of BTC exceeded gold for the first time.
The price rise stage of the second round of price cycle, from November 2011 to November 2013, lasted for 743 days. The starting price was $1.99 USD/piece, and the highest price was 1,242 USD/piece, the rise rate reached 623 times. The price decline section of the second round of price cycle. From November 2013 to August 2015, lasted for 634 days. In this price decline stage, the starting price of BTC was 1,242 USD per piece, and the lowest price was 199.57 USD per piece. The decline rate was 84%.
At the second price cycle, the range of application of BTC has been greatly expanded. In November 2012, WordPress began to accept BTC; and in October 2013, the world's first BTC ATM was deployed in a coffee shop in Vancouver where customers could buy and sell BTC. In November 2013, the University of Nicosia announced accepting BTC for tuition, the university's chief financial officer called it "gold of tomorrow"; In addition to some underground economy and gray economy began to accept BTC, BTC is also getting closer to daily life.
The success of BTC popularized altcoins. The first type of altcoin LTC (Litecoin) was created in October 2011, and it is the time when the BTC price came to the end of price decline. In 2011, Namecoin and SwiftCoin were born successively. In 2012, Bytecoin and Peercoin were issued, however, BTC was still in the stage of rising slowly from the bottom, and the market was not hot. Along with the re-emergence of BTC in 2013, the tide of the altcoins is rampant, and a large number of altcoins are issued. According to CoinMarketCap data, there were 66 kinds of altcoins at the end of 2013, while there were less than 10 at the beginning of the year.
The safe-haven properties of BTC are widely approved. BTC was a choice for people in many countries that are in crises. The residents flocked to BTC, hoping to maintain assets value through BTC. This phenomenon has occurred many times during the European debt crisis. For example, in early 2013, in order to get the bailout, the Cyprus government imposed taxes on deposits and imposed strict capital controls. In order to prevent property from shrinking, the Cypriot people rushed to bank runs and exchanged their currencies for BTC. The price of BTC quickly rose from 30 something to 265 US dollars.

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Due to the lack of supervision, BTC is often affected by negative events, which makes the market confidence in the danger of collapsing. In October 2013, the FBI seized approximately 26,000 BTCs from the Silk Road website, causing the BTC price to collapse to 110 US dollars. On December 5, 2013, the People's Bank of China banned the use of BTC by Chinese financial institutions, which made the price of BTC declined. In February 2014, Mt. Gox, the largest BTC exchange at the time, said that 850,000 BTCs of its customers were stolen, worth nearly 500 million US dollars, and BTC prices fell nearly half, from 867 to 439 US dollars.
The emergence of a large number of altcoins caused market bleeding. Since 2014, the number of altcoins has exploded. By August 2015, the number has reached 556, resulting in diversion of funds and market expansion. On May 1, 2013, BTC accounted for 94.29% of the market value of all tokens, and the market value of other tokens except the top 10 tokens was about 1%. By August 25, 2015, the proportion of BTC is about 83%, and the other tokens account for 4%, which is obvious.
No matter how magical token is, it is still a kind of asset. The mean return of value is a basic common sense of investment. The value will pull the price back to it, just like the gravity. The risk increases with the price rises, and the value appears when the price declines. In the rising section of this cycle, the price of BTC rose by 623 times, which is a great rise rate. When the price is too high, and the potential return in the future is insufficient, the attractiveness to new investors will fall, and the old investors will leave and look for more lucrative assets. Once the power of trend investors exhausted, the trend will reverse.
3 The Third Round of Price Cycle
The third round of price cycle of BTC is not over and is currently in the downward phase of the cycle. The price increased from August 2015 and lasted for 845 days till December 2017. The starting price of the price-rising cycle BTC was 199.57 USD/piece, and the highest price was close to 20,000 USD/piece. The rise rate is up to 99 times. Since December 2017, the price started to decline. The price has fallen to the lowest 3,191.30 US dollars up to now, a drop of 84%.
BTC networks expanded rapidly, and BTC has gained increasing recognition among legislators and traditional financial companies. Studies have shown that by November 2013, the commercialization of BTC is no longer driven by the underground economy, but by legitimate businesses. During this price cycle, people from more countries can get in touch with, select, trade and use BTC on a daily basis. In January 2016, Bitcoin computing capacity reached 1 exahash/S for the first time; In March 2016, the Japanese cabinet acknowledged that BTC has a function similar to real money. In 2017, Norway's largest online bank Skandiabanken integrated BTC accounts. In December 2017, Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) officially launched BTC futures, which is an important step for BTC to take toward mainstream investment. In October 2018, Fidelity launched its independent subsidiary Fidelity Digital Asset Services to provide digital asset services to institutional customers. In December 2018, the first round of financing was completed by the token exchange Bakkt launched by the Intercontinental Exchange. In February 2019, Nasdaq officially launched - Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX) and Ethereum Liquid Index (ELX)- two indexes. The pension fund of US invests in the encryption fund, the mainstream organization is accelerating, and the relevant infrastructure is gradually improved.
BTC has become a risky asset. Under the current “three lows” environment - low interest rates, low spreads and low volatility, investors are seeking high returns, which leads to excessive financial risk behaviors and complacency, investors' risk appetite, and high leverage tools and the acceptance of high-risk products has increased, arbitrage transactions have prevailed, liquidity mismatches have been severe, and the overall market is fragile. As the results we can see that, the price of BTC is increasingly correlated with the VIX index (Chicago Options Exchange Volatility Index). A lower VIX index indicates that investors expect less volatility, while a higher VIX indicates higher expected volatility. The lower VIX index indicates that investors are optimistic about S&P 500, while the higher VIX means that investors are uncertain about the market outlook. When market volatility declines, investors buy stocks and other types of risk assets, when the market volatility rises, investors sell risky assets.
Risk assets will be dumped when risk appetite reduces panic market. BTC bid farewell to the nature of safe-haven assets and become a risky asset. Since December 2017, with the decline of the VIX index, the price of BTC rises, and the price of BTC is negatively correlated with the VIX index. At the beginning of 2018, the VIX index skyrocketed and BTC fell rapidly. In October 2018, the global market risk aversion trend increased, the VIX index went up, and the BTC price also fell sharply.

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Crowdsale has become the main financing method in the blockchain field. Crowdsale was born in the second round of the price cycle, Mastercoin did the world's first Crowdsale in July 2013. In 2014, Ethereum also raised funds through Crowdsale, when the price of ETH was less than 0.22 USD per piece. After 2016, when it is in the third price cycle, Crowdsale is popular around the world, and many websites began to provide information and discussion communities for Crowdsale. From a global perspective, Crowdsale has dominated the blockchain investment since 2017, far exceeding VCs and corporate investment. In 2017, Crowdsale raised 7.4 billion US dollars, and in the first half of 2018, Crowdsale Raised 12 billion US dollars.
The Crypto Fund emerged. Along with the Crowdsale boom, a large number of Crypto Funds were created. The number of Crypto Funds newly established in 2017 was nearly 200, far exceeding the total amount of the Crypto funds created in previous years, which fully demonstrated that, with the rise in the price of the token, the enthusiasm of funds to blockchain field is high.

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The rise of blockchain 2.0, the Crowdsale tide pushed ETH up nearly 10,000 times. In the third round of the BTC (Token) price cycle, the biggest star is not BTC, but ETH. Crowdsale after 2016, issued tokens mainly through Ethereum, which represented the rise of ETH in the blockchain 2.0 era. Crowdsale prosperity boosted the rise of ETH. On January 13, 2018, the price of ETH rose to a peak of 1,432.88 US dollars per piece, which is 6512 times rise rate comparing to its initial price.
The ETH price has a significant positive correlation with the growth rate of Crowdsale financing. The growth rate of Crowdsale financing decreased by 69.23% in 2015, the price of ETH decreased by 66.30% in the same year. In 2016, the growth rate of Crowdsale financing increased by 2737.5%, and ETH increased by 753.74%. In 2017, the growth rate of Crowdsale financing increased by 3,159.91%, and ETH rose by 8809.91%.

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Plan for public blockchain performance improvement emerged, and significant progress were made in lightning network. With the popularization of blockchains, the congestion of BTC and other public chains has gradually emerged, and performance has become one of the bottlenecks in the blockchain industry. In 2018, the performance-improvement plan of the public blockchain emerged. Improvements were made to the difference in blockchain logical architecture, including on-chain capacity expansion schemes by improving consensus mechanism and sharing, and off-chain capacity expansion schemes by status channel, sidechain, off-chain computing, and Layer 0 expansion scheme that enhance the scalability of the blockchain by optimizing the underlying data transmission protocol of the blockchain. Since the main net of BTC lightning network goes live, the number and capacity of channels have been increasing. As of March 10, 2019, the capacity has reached 790 BTC, and the number of channels has reached 35,464.

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Note: The Unique channel refers to the channel that is directly connected to the node for the first time, and the Duplicate channel refers to the channel between the nodes that have been connected.
The standardization of the token is promoted. On January 22, 2018, South Korea required all BTC dealers to disclose their identity, thereby prohibiting anonymous trading of BTC. During the first quarter of 2018, Facebook, Google and Twitter prohibited the promotion of Crowdsale, while the US Securities and Exchange Commission investigated a large number of Crowdsale projects, and issued bans to some Crowdsale projects. Regardless of the government's attitude towards the token, it is committed to incorporating the token into the regulatory framework for legal compliance.
The Crowdsale bubble bursted and the magical story is no longer magical. According to incomplete statistics, in 2017, 871 Crowdsale were completed in the world. These projects involved directions as distributed analogous Facebook, twitter, amazon, and next-generation public chain (blockchain 3.0), etc. These projects have raised a large amount of funds, but the actual operating is worrying. The promotion of the project dissipated a large amount of funds, but the actual development progress was far less than expected, resulting in the market's expectation failure and the diversion of funds from the mainstream token. Superimposed the impact of more and more negative news, technical adjustment requirements and market sentiment fluctuation. The market enters a negative cycle, as the decline begins.

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In 2018, there has been rapid growth in venture capital in the blockchain sector, indicating that venture capital still have good expectations about the application and future prospects of the blockchain. According to Coindesk data, the risk investment in the blockchain sector in 2018 reverse the decline of 2017, year-on-year increase of 257%, and the total amount for the year 2018 reached 3.1 billion US dollars.

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BTC peaked first. In terms of time, in the third round of the price cycle, the first to peak is BTC, which reached 19,870.62 USD per piece in December 2017. The peak of ETH happened later than BTC, in January 2018. EOS did not peak until April. The important reason for BTC to peak first is that the amount of funds needed to support the BTC market value scale is the largest. When the market’s ability to carry on is not enough, it is inevitable for the price of BTC to react first.
4 Three Major Rules of BTC Price Cycle
The price cycle of BTC has obvious regularity, and some unchanging factors determine the price fluctuation of BTC.
4.1 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
One full BTC price cycle lasts approximately four years. In the first round of price cycles, the measure of time span is not reliable because of the availability of BTC trading prices. The second round of the price cycle lasted for 1,377 days, from November 2011 to August 2015, about four years.
The price-rising cycle of BTC is closely related to its halving period, and the price-rising cycle starts one year before each halving. At the end of November 2012, the first production of BTC was halved, that is, the number of BTC generated by each block was 25, and in November 2011, the price of BTC has bottomed out, and the halving of BTC is one year after the second price-rising cycle. In July 2016, production of BTC was halved the second time, that is, the number of BTC generated by each block was 12.5. In August 2015, BTC had already bottomed out, and BTC's production was reduced again one year after the third price-rising cycle started.

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BTC output halving blows the horn of each price-rising cycle, and the price speeding up begin. Although it is not BTC output halving that brings the price-rising cycle, but the halving of BTC output significantly reduced the growth rate of BTC supply, speeding up the rise of BTC price and the price-rising cycle. From November 2011 to November 2012, before the halving of BTC output, BTC increased by 6.74 times in one year. From November 2012 to November 2013, BTC price increased by 99.57 times. In the third price-rising cycle, BTC price rose by a maximum of 2.87 times in about 11 months before the production cut. After halving, BTC price rose by a maximum of 29.73 times in about 11 months.

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4.2 BTC price cycle is closely related to its halving cycle
The change in the market value scale of BTC (circulation) is mainly caused by its price fluctuations, and has little to do with the changes in the total amount of BTC output. According to CMC data, by April 28, 2013, the total amount of BTC that had been mined was about 11.18 million pieces, which is more than 53% of the total amount of BTC of 21 million pieces. The halving mechanism of BTC also accelerated the marginal decline of BTC total growth rate. Compared with the amount of BTC already mined, the new supply of BTC is very insignificant. In addition, the volatility of BTC prices far exceeds the volatility of BTC's total output, and the market value of BTC fluctuates with its price.
The market value of BTC has increased in trend. Because of the trend of BTC price-rising, the number of BTC total output has also increased in one direction, and the market value of BTC has increased in the long run. According to CMC data, on April 28, 2013, BTC's market value in circulation was only 1.5 billion US dollars. By the peak of the third price-rising cycle, the market value increased to 326.1 billion US dollars, and the current market value also reached 113.8 billion US dollars, increased by 74.87 times.
The price volatility of BTC is gradually getting smaller. With the increasing of BTC market value in trend, the BTC market is becoming more and more mature, more and more accepted by the public, more and more professional organizations are participating, the compliance operation is becoming mainstream, and the BTC price volatility is decreasing. Similar to the historical process of other asset classes, and the same thing is repeated again and again. In the first price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 10636 times, and the fell by 93.76% maximum. In the second price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 623 times, and fell by 83.93% maximum. In the third price cycle, the maximum increase of BTC price was 98.57 times, and the biggest decline has not been confirmed

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4.3 BTC-led innovation continues to evolve and is more and more recognized by the mainstream
From BTC to Altcoin, from Altcoin to Crowdsale, there are iconic innovations and applications in every price cycle. In the first cycle, the birth and gradual application of BTC was a landmark event. In the second cycle, with the re-emergence of BTC in 2013, the tide of the Altcoins was rampant, and a large number of Altcoins appeared. In the third cycle, Crowdsale began to be popular around the world, many websites started to provide Crowdsale's news and discussion forum. Since 2017, Crowdsale has dominated the blockchain investment, far exceeding VCs and corporate investment.
The original intention of Nakamoto to create BTC is to establish a more efficient means of trading that can be electronically transferred in a safe, verifiable and non-tamperable form. During the early days of bitcoin and blockchain development, this drove the development of most applications of BTC and blockchain. However, with the development of blockchain technology, the evolution of digital token, the recognition of practitioners, and the evolution of government regulation, the changes led by BTC continue to evolve and gain more mainstream recognition.
More and more countries recognize that the blockchain reflects its unique value in many fields. The government has gradually incorporated digital token into regulation, and mainstream institutions are increasingly recognizing BTC. In 2017, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) officially launched BTC futures, as BTC took an important step toward mainstream investment, improving the accessibility of BTC to traditional financial institutions. In March 2017, Cameron's Cliveworth and Taylor W. Crawworth brothers attempted to submit an application to the US Securities and Exchange Commission for BTC ETF (transactional open-ended index fund). Although on September 22, 2018, US Securities and Exchange Commission rejected nine BTC ETF applications, the approval of BTC ETF application is a high probability event in the long run. With the continuous improvement of related infrastructure and the gradual maturity of the market, the pace of institutional entry has shown signs of acceleration. Since the end of 2018, news about the organization of encrypted assets by mainstream institutions has continued.

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5 The new journey of BTC will Start in May 2019
The fourth price-rising cycle of BTC will start in May 2019, and mainstream institutions will enter the market, while ETF may become the core trend of the fourth round of BTC price cycle.
From the perspective of supply, the third halving of BTC begins around May 21, 2020. The price-rising cycle of BTC is closely related to its halving period. The price-rising cycle starts about one year before halving. From this perspective, the BTC price-rising cycle may be opened around May 2019.

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From the time dimension, the complete BTC price cycle lasts for about four years. The third round of the price cycle, which started in August 2015, will be completed around August 2019, and the fourth round of the price cycle of BTC will begin thereafter. Considering that the data in the second round of the price cycle is more reliable, only the second round of price cycle data is used as the measurement standard, the complete price cycle is 1377 days, about 3 years and 9 months, and the third round price cycle may end around May 2019.
Combined with the previous two BTC price cycles, the downturn phase of the current price cycle has been probably more than half, and further downside space is limited. In the first two rounds of the price cycle, the duration of the downlink phase is less than the duration of the uplink phase. The duration of the third phase of the price cycle has been confirmed (845 days), while the duration of the downturn phase has been more than half of the upstream phase (450 days). From the first two rounds of the price cycle, the rapid decline in prices occurred in the early stage of the downtrend phase. The price fluctuations of BTC in the second half of the downturn phase have been significantly reduced. The BTC price declines reached 61% in the first half and 74% in the second round of the price cycle, and the corresponding maximum declines in BTC were 94% and 84% respectively. In the current round of the price cycle, the biggest drop has reached 84%, so take it from now, even if the price is further down, the downside space is already limited.
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Note: The data of the third round of the price cycle and the total duration are up to March 12, 2019.
From the price dimension, the downside space of the current round of BTC prices is limited, and the maximum increase of BTC's fourth price-rising cycle will become smaller. In the first price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 10636 times, and fell by 93.76% maximum. In the second price cycle, the price of BTC increased by 623 times, and fell by 83.93% maximum. In the third price cycle, the maximum increase of BTC price was 98.57 times, and the biggest decline has not been confirmed. On February 6, 2018, BTC fell to a minimum of 3,191.30 US dollars per piece, drop by 84.07%, has reached the low of second round of price cycle, from the perspective of price adjustment, BTC price downside has been more limited. The maximum increase in the fourth price-rising cycle of BTC will be smaller.
From the perspective of risk, after a year of continuous adjustment, BTC prices have fully fallen, risks have been gradually released, and investor’s risk appetite has risen to create favorable conditions for BTC prices to stabilize. Beginning at the end of December 2018, the VIX index has fallen, and now it has reached 15 or below. The investor's risk appetite has gradually picked up, creating favorable conditions for the BTC price to rise stably.
Last but not least, from the perspective of capital, the mainstream institutions accelerated their entry and many positive signals were released. With the continuous improvement of related infrastructure and the gradual maturity of the market, the pace of institutional entry has shown signs of acceleration. Since 2018, on the one hand, the entry of mainstream institutions can bring incremental funds to the entire market, on the other hand, it also contributes to the formal development of the entire industry.
The value of the BTC's market value in circulation continues to increase, and the digital token embraces regulation. It is expected that the ETF will be the core trend in the fourth price cycle. As the value of the BTC and digital token market increases, their use will be more tied-up to legitimate use than illegal activities. According to the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) data, only 10% of the current BTC transactions is related to illegal activities and 90% is used for legal transactions. BTC's increasingly large market value requires more financial support. Digital token will embrace supervision to absorb more funds, and ETF will be a viable solution. In the future, there is going to be an evolution from Crowdsale to ETF, from regulation to embrace supervision.
Note:
Although in this report, we try to predict the bottom and time of Token, especially BTC, by using time and space cycle, we would like to tell investors that it is very dangerous to invest basing on a specific dot and time. An investment shall base on the assessment of the value of the token.
Here are our suggestions: 1. Do not try to predict the market. Mistakes are liable to happen when you try to predict market harshly. 2. Feel the cycle. Cycle is always there, because of the constant human nature;3. Be with a good Token, which will bring you more chance to win. 4.Keep valuation in mind. The most important thing in value investing is to keep the valuation in mind. If the price is reasonable, everything is getable. The key is the difference between price and value (Absolute valuation method is not available with Token because of its specialty. However, a relative valuation method can be applied. Please refer to Token Toll’s report series).
Notions:
For some reasons, some definition in this report are not very defined, such as: Token, Digital Token, Digital Currency, Currency, Crowdsale, etc.
If you have any questions, be free to call us to discuss with us.

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What is cryptocurrency halving

What is cryptocurrency halving

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Cryptocurrency halving is a process in which the reward value for each mined transaction block is halved. The halving ensures that the crypto asset will follow a stable emission rate until its maximum supply is reached.
Halving plays an important role in cryptocurrencies based on the Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus algorithm. It is a fundamental factor that inevitably has an effect on the price of the cryptocurrency. In addition, halving significantly affects the interests of miners, since their profit depends on it.
In this article we would like to consider the most famous coins which are waiting for halving in the near future.

Zcash

Zcash (ZEC) is in the top 50 of the biggest cryptocurrencies in the world now. The first block was mined at the end of 2016, so the first halving will take place at the end of 2020. You can follow Zcash halving countdown here.
Currently every miner gets 12.5 ZEC per block. But each 4-year period (or 840,000 mined blocks) the volume of ZEC production is halved (from 12.5 to 6.25 to 3.125 to 1.5625, etc.).
Early investors put $3 million to fund the Zcash creation. In return for that money they agreed that the investors would receive a small fraction of the Electric Coin Company’s equity along with a slice of the Founder’s Rewards coins. At the moment the activities of ECC are sponsored by a network commission. 20% of the commission goes to the development of the project but in a year the developers will stop receiving their share from the extraction of digital coins. It will be possible to measure the impact of this factor on the Zcash price next year.

Litecoin

Litecoin (LTC) was created in 2011 by former Google employee Charlie Lee. Despite the fact that the coin isn’t new, this asset is still quite popular and has the 6th largest capitalization now.
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LTC was based on the Bitcoin software code. However, there are several significant differences between these two cryptocurrencies. For example, unlike Bitcoin, Litecoin is based on the Scrypt hash algorithm, not SHA-256. The main difference between the Scrypt hash algorithm and SHA-256: the more powerful software is needed for the Scrypt hash algorithm. That’s why LTC mining is more profitable.
In addition, LTC block production time is 2.5 minutes, which is 4 times faster than BTC. Therefore, transactions on the Litecoin network are much faster than Bitcoin. There is the Litecoin Halving History:
  • Litecoin Halving on August 8th, 2015. The amount of the reward for mining was reduced from 50 to 25 LTC. The first halving happened after 840,000 blocks. By then 50% of LTC (42 million LTC) was mined.
  • Litecoin Halving on August 5th, 2019. The amount of the reward for mining was reduced from 25 to 12.5 LTC. The second halving happened after 1,680,000 blocks. By that time 75% of LTC (63 million LTC) was mined. Due to the growth in trading volumes, the coin pumped more than 10% breaking the line of $ 100.
  • The next Litecoin halving is expected to be on August 3rd, 2023. By that moment 252,000,000 blocks will have been unraveled and 73.5 million LTC will have been mined. If you want to follow Litecoin halving countdown, tap here.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s total supply is limited to 21,000,000 BTC. In this regard, Bitcoin is a deflationary asset.
When Bitcoin was created, the reward for the block was 50 BTC, which means the miner could receive 50 BTC coins every 10 minutes. This was at a time when miners used ordinary laptops and Bitcoin cost a few cents.
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Since the creation of the genesis block the Bitcoin halving has happened twice:
  • November 28th, 2012 – the reward decreased from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. Three months before halving, the price of Bitcoin increased by 18%, and 90 days after this event – by 141%.
  • July 9th, 2016 – the reward decreased from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC. Within 90 days before the second halving the Bitcoin’s price increased by 54%. However, mining income has not recovered to its previous values. This could be due to the high competition between the miners, which led to a significant increase in the complexity of Bitcoin mining.
  • The third Bitcoin halving will happen in 2020. Then the reward for the found block will be reduced from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC. Halving will be repeated every 4 years until the last Bitcoin is mined. It is about to happen in 2140. You can follow the Bitcoin halving countdown here.
According to analysts, before the first halving, which occurred in November 2012, the price of Bitcoin was $ 2.55. And a year after this event it grew to $ 1,037. Curiously, after that, the cryptocurrency fell almost four times, to $ 268. However, after the second halving, BTC not only returned to $ 1,037 but also overcame this level 2.5 times: Bitcoin went up to $ 2,525 in July 2017.
Cryptoanalysts note that the growth of cryptocurrency is always affected by halving. The cryptocurrencies rates usually start to grow closer to the date of halving. This theory is illustrated by the situation with BTC which price rose significantly before every halving.

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Bitcoin Price drop after halving - What´s next? Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency analysis Will We See Another Drop Before Bitcoin Halving 2020? Visa Cards To Reward in BTC Bitcoin's Halving in 2020 - Will It Spark the Next Bitcoin Bull Run? Why This Bitcoin Halving will be MASSIVE! Enjin ENJ, Energi NRG, Sharering, Kyber Network, Uptrennd The World Of Bitcoin And The Next Mining Reward Halving

Bitcoin’s hashrate has plummeted following Monday’s block reward halving, indicating the overall network strength. Bitcoin’s hashrate has fallen nearly 20% since May 11’s halving, according to data from CryptoCompare.Hashrate serves as an aggregate measure for the computing resources being devoted by miners towards maintaining Bitcoin’s network. Bitcoin Mining Revenue on the Decline Since Block Reward Halving May 19, 2020 Mining difficulty is thus ever-changing and contingent on activity — simply put, the rate will go higher as more miners compete to mine bitcoin or lower if competition draws down. Institutions also see bitcoin as an uncorrelated asset with a good risk to reward. Decoupling traditional markets The correlation with traditional markets, both in equities and gold, was a major talking point in the bitcoin world and intensified considerably before the halving and after the Black Thursday crash on March 12. Bitcoin will head further down the path to being considered a digital gold when the halving event takes palce, but is it the answer? Bitcoin inflation rate per annum at next block halving event: 0.84%: Bitcoin inflation per day (USD): $11,792,700: Bitcoin inflation until next blockhalf event based on current price (USD): $15,206,686,650: Bitcoin block reward (USD): $81,893.75: Total blocks: 654,312: Blocks until mining reward is halved: 185,688: Total number of block reward ...

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Bitcoin Price drop after halving - What´s next? Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency analysis

Bitcoin halving is coming up in just over a month! The current measures being taken by the Federal Reserve and other central banks. BTC's block reward halving is in stark contrast to what is ... Welcome to the Forallcrypto Bitcoin block reward halving countdown livestream, We will be streaming the last 50 days before the Bitcoin block reward halving ... The next bitcoin halving is 11 days away and apart from the bullish sentiment around it, a lot has changed since the last two halving events. Bitcoin Block Reward Halving is a major event for ... “IMO bitcoin 2020 halving will be like 2012 & 2016. As per S2F model I expect 10x price (order of magnitude, not precise) 1-2 yrs after the halving. Halving will be make-or-break for S2F model ... As Bitcoin's halving draws closer and closer, you hear more people buzzing about it in the crypto world. What exactly is Bitcoin's halving, how does it work,...

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